Rachel Candelora's runner-by-runner guide to the Belmont

For the third and final time, the Belmont Stakes is being held at Saratoga Racecourse, in upstate New York, due to construction at Belmont Park. Once again due to the configuration of Saratoga, the Belmont Stakes will be run over a mile and a quarter as opposed to its traditional mile and a half. 

Supplemented to this race for $50,000. A winner of just one of his six career starts, a 1 1/16th mile maiden at Keeneland last fall for horses who sold for less than $65,000 at their most recent auction. In his only start so far this year he was 9 ½ lengths 3rd in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby finishing behind So Happy and Potente who were subsequently well beaten in the Kentucky Derby. 

Since his run in the Santa Anita Derby a new partner has joined the ownership group including the likes of rappers Lil Wayne and Lil Yachty. The horse is not good enough, but the owners should have a good day out. 

A lightly raced son of Constitution who has won one of his three starts which was a maiden over 1 1/16th at Churchill Downs – it was the opening race on Kentucky Derby Day. He sat in second before asserting and kicking 2 ¾ lengths clear in the stretch as the favourite. Four-time Belmont Stakes winning trainer Todd Pletcher has always been very high on the horse and after a little set back that prevented him from racing as a two-year-old he made his belated debut in a maiden at Tampa Bay finishing ¾ length second to fellow Belmont rival Emerging Market in February. 

Since his win last time out at Churchill Downs, Powershift has been the regular training partner to stablemate Renegade and has, according to the clockers, been the better workhorse. However, his lack of experience over this trip and the fact that his lone try in stakes competition up until this point was a lackluster effort in the Gr 3 Tampa Bay Derby in March suggests he may be found wanting in this company. 

He is one of the few likely pace horses in this race, and could therefore be used to help guarantee a good gallop for his stablemate Renegade, who is also part owned by Mike Repole.  

One of five horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby and represents last year’s winning trainer and jockey combo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. Chief Wallabee finished a troubled and game 4th, beaten three lengths, in the Derby having gotten jostled around in the stretch before picking back up late. Dual Belmont Stakes winning trainer Mott added blinkers in the Derby and they did help this son of Constitution to improve and the headgear remains on. 

Mott himself is looking to become the first trainer since D. Wayne Lukas in 1996 to win back-to-back Belmonts having won with Sovereignty last year. Since the Derby Chief Wallabee has ben training well at Saratoga and gets the benefit of running out of his own box. 

Post position three is ideal for him as he has shown some tactical early speed to sit up with the pace and with very little front-end speed in this race, he should have a better position than the confirmed closers. 

Arguably the moral victor of the Kentucky Derby given, from the dreaded PP1, he was knocked sidewise and almost put over the inner rail through an incredibly rough first furlong before going on to finish 2nd by a neck. Even in the homestretch he took another significant bump so, given the amount of forward momentum he lost throughout the race, there is absolutely no doubt he is an extremely strong stayer at this Classic distance. 

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont four times, all since 2007, and has also saddled 13 other placed runners. In the last 20 years, 28% of the top-three finishers in the Belmont have come from the Todd Pletcher barn. 

Rider Irad Ortiz Jr has won the Belmont twice himself. Set to go off the overwhelming favourite, there are a couple of question marks handing over his head. Firstly, how will he handle being back in a race scenario mentally given the rough nature of the Derby, and secondly the flattest performance of his career came on his only previous start here at Saratoga when he finished a lackluster 3rd, beaten over 18 lengths, on his debut last August, albeit over a much shorter distance. The main track at Saratoga is very much a “horses for courses” track, the horse either acts on it or they do not. 

Likely to be the longest price of the three Chad Brown representatives in this race. Owns just one victory from four career starts to date, a 1 1/8th mile maiden at Aqueduct on New Years Eve, but has been beaten double digits, when placed, in his two attempts at Stakes company since that success. He was a well beaten 3rd in the Listed Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in February and earnt his crack at this Classic when 11 lengths 2nd to Further Ado in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes over 1 1/8th miles at Keeneland at the beginning of April. 

He came out of the Bluegrass with a crack in the sole of his left front foot and he has been training in a bar shoe, which is seldom, if ever, a positive. He is a half-brother to Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, but to date Ottinho has lacked Gun Runner’s sparkle and appears one paced. 

The second of the Chad Brown runners, this son of Nyquist earned his way into the Belmont with his victory in the “Win and You’re In” Gr 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct over 1 1/8th miles, pulling away by two lengths having been caught wide throughout. Overall he has won two of his four career starts, both at Aqueduct, in the Peter Pan and in a 1 mile maiden in March. In both of those runs he showed the ability to sit up with the early pace and take over mid race.

Another runner who may be used as a pace maker for his better fancied stablemate Emerging Market, both of whom are owned by Klaravich Stables. On the positive side he has already raced here at Saratoga, running a solid length second, on his debut last July, over six furlongs. 

Off the back of four straight wins including in the Gr 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, Commandment was one of the buzz horses going into the Kentucky Derby (and the top pick of this column), but he could only finish a disappointing 7th, beaten 5 ¼ lengths. From PP 5 he broke slowly and rider Luis Saez made a far too early move, five-wide into the far turn, and then the horse was hampered by the eventual third Ocelli coming over on him in the stretch. 

In the aftermath of that run, trainer Brad Cox reached out to two-times Belmont winning jockey John Velazquez to take the ride in the Belmont, which is a huge positive. Cox has already won a Belmont Stakes with a horse who had a similar profile with Essential Quality in 2021. 

With his body of work this year, and the fact that breeding-wise this distance is not an issue, he is likely to be an overpriced, huge player here given that his Derby run is best ignored. While Commandment has never run at Saratoga his dam Sippican Harbor won the Gr 1 Spinaway Stakes there in 2018. 

The main hope from the Chad Brown barn, as the 47-year-old, five times Eclipse Award winning New York native bids to win the race for the first time. Emerging Market lost his undefeated record when finishing 10th in the Kentucky Derby last time out, but previously was two-for-two in his career including a hard-fought win in the 1 3/16th mile Gr 2 Louisiana Derby where he finished ahead of subsequent Derby winner Golden Tempo. 

In the Derby he sat too close to the fast early pace before fading to finish tenth. During the race he lost a shoe and was sore for a couple of days after the Derby, but has been healthy since. A comparatively small colt, he was at a considerable disadvantage in such a roughly run Derby, so this shorter field should see him to much better effect given that he now has more racing experience. Breeding-wise it is worth noting his dam is by 1 ½ mile Belmont winner Empire Maker.

Got the perfect set-up, when staying on strongly, to come from last to first in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. The decision of rider Jose Ortiz to go widest of all around the home turn was the race winning move as he escaped all the trouble to his inside. 

Given how the race was run there was no fluke about his victory at Churchill Downs, as we had already seen him finish to similar effect in prep races at the Fair Grounds, but it is impossible to see him getting a similar race set up at the Spa – connections are unlucky that this is not a 1 ½ mile “Test of Champions” back at Belmont. 

This year’s Kentucky Derby was one of the roughest races I have ever seen and the cloud hanging over this Belmont Stakes, from a handicapping point of view, is that four of the five horses who come here from Churchill Downs were at some point bumped and/or compromised in their run. That said, in the last 25 editions of this race, horses who ran in the Derby have won 16 times - 12 of whom went straight from the Derby to the Belmont. 

I am confident that a son of Into Mischief (sire of last year’s winner Sovereignty) will win this year’s Belmont Stakes, but which one of his pair is a difficult call. American race handicapping, and tote wagering, is hugely dominated by recency of form and one seemingly lacklustre run can sway odds immensely. This appears to be the case with #7 COMMANDMENT whose effort at Churchill Downs was much better than his final finishing position suggests. He is the forgotten horse of this race and his price reflects that. It is difficult to imagine the Brad Cox trainee will get into such a poor position early given he is now ridden by Johnny V, one of the most successful riders in the history of Saratoga. Although he was not given the opportunity to show it in the Derby, COMMANDMENT does possess tactical speed and horses with tactical early speed tend to perform well in the Belmont. 15 of the last 20 Belmont winners were racing within four lengths of the lead after the first half mile including in the last two years when the race has been run at Saratoga over 1 ¼ miles. Given his backclass he would be a very solid second favourite here had he never made the starting gate in Kentucky. 

Obviously, the horse to beat is the other son of Into Mischief, #4 RENEGADE who was the moral victor of the Derby but his price reflects that. What he managed to achieve after such a tough trip from PP1 at Churchill Downs was remarkable, but what did that take out of him and has it left a mark? Being prepared for this race by Todd Pletcher is a huge plus (another factor which shortens his price), but his mediocre previous run at Saratoga is another question mark over him as favourite.  

Although he has never raced at Saratoga #3 CHIEF WALLABEE comes the closest of any of these to having home field advantage given he has been stabled and trained at the Spa for most of his career. Indeed, his works on the training track have been very solid since his troubled fourth in the Kentucky Derby – arguably he has been training the best of the Derby graduates. Undoubtably the application of blinkers has seen a real improvement in this colt and in this smaller field he should be able to show his true talent which, on Gulfstream form, means he should finish just behind the top pick. 

While the race is unlikely to set up for him #9 GOLDEN TEMPO is a really good racehorse and should not be written off as a one-hit-wonder. Remember in 2009 Mine That Bird also came from a long way last to win the Kentucky Derby at huge odds, but what is often forgotten is his subsequent excellent second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont Stakes in races not run to suit. How close Golden Tempo gets this time around is open to question, but you know he will be staying on down the lane. 

So my four against the field are (in order of preference): 

#7 Commandment

#4 Renegade

#3 Chief Wallabee

#9 Golden Tempo