Balmoral Handicap: five for the shortlist

Trainer: Karl Burke. Ascot form: 311. Best odds: 11-2.

Given his connections, his progressive form, his record at Ascot and the fact he is well-in here under his penalty for winning the Challenge Cup here two weeks ago, Native Warrior has to merit serious consideration when it comes to finding this year’s winner.

An eye-catcher at Goodwood when sent off favourite and not getting the smoothest of runs, he then bounced back with a comfortable win at Ascot under a typically patient Jamie Spencer ride, before he defied an 8lb rise with another victory over the same course and distance. 

Yet again, he was ridden cold early on before making his customary late challenge, and he denied Victoria Cup winner and course specialist Hickory the win by a length and three-quarters.

He shoulders a 6lb penalty for that success on Saturday but is still ahead of the handicapper. He will, however, be tackling a mile for the first time in five months, a trip he has only won over once, when breaking his maiden tag in May last year.

James Doyle rode him on that occasion, and he takes over from Spencer here. He is yet to finish outside of the places aboard Native Warrior and rode him to finish third in the Britannia Stakes last season.

Trainer: Charlie Johnston. Ascot form: 8205. Best odds: 25-1.

Chasemore Farm’s filly has been knocking on the door in some decent handicaps this year and found one too good over course and distance back in May. She is 7lb higher now, but that is because she has improved and she is another that will be thankful for the unseasonably dry weather.

Whilst she disappointed in the Kensington Palace Stakes here at the Royal meeting, she bounced back to form by finishing second in the Coral Challenge at Sandown in July. A fifth at the Shergar Cup followed where she was never ideally placed to make a strong challenge in a steadily-run race. She meets several of those rivals on better terms in this race.

She dipped her toe into Group Two company on her next start, contesting the Celebration Mile, where she looked to have no chance on ratings, but she got within three-quarters of a length of the winner and was gaining on winner Jonquil at the finish.

Last seen finishing third in a strong Listed fillies and mares race, she can still make her presence felt in this competitive race and she looks overpriced at 25-1 with Jamie Spencer aboard.

Trainer: William Haggas. Ascot form: 1. Best odds: 13-2.

Like Native Warrior, this is another progressive son of Wootton Bassett. However, unlike the Wathnan Racing-owned favourite, William Haggas’s gelding is a three-year-old and more lightly-raced.

Yet to finish outside of the first three in six starts, he has won twice, with his most recent success coming over a mile and a quarter at Ascot last month, where he was eased down by Cieren Fallon to win a soft ground handicap by six and a half lengths. The third, beaten seven and a half lengths, has won since, whilst the runner-up has also gone close.

That win saw him shortened into the 5-1 favourite for the Cambridgeshire, but connections opted to head to Ireland instead. Despite being sent off the 10-11 favourite in the 21-runner field, he could only manage third.

He has raced exclusively over a mile and a quarter since being gelded in June and it remains to be seen if he has the required gears for a competitive race like this over a mile, but one imagines that he may still have something in hand off a mark of 99 and he would be dangerous to rule out should he line up for his shrewd connections.

Trainer: Jamie Osborne. Ascot form: 230471312. Best odds: 20-1.

This year’s Victoria Cup winner is 10lb higher than when winning that race on his first run of the season under Saffie Osborne but he has improved and a mark of 96 could still be within his compass, especially at his beloved Ascot where he has not been out of the frame in four runs this season.

I’m also not sure he is crying out for soft ground, so the fact he won here on soft two runs ago and went close behind Native Warrior on soft here last time tells me he is in great form and this return to a quicker surface that he won on in May could help his chances, especially if they go hard up front.

He has already proved to be an inspired purchase at 26,000gns and can add to his career tally of over £210,000 by bagging some more prize money in this. He should sneak into this race towards the bottom of the weights and the race should be run to suit.

Trainer: David O’Meara. Ascot form: 2002. Best odds: 14-1.

David O’Meara has won three of the past eight renewals of the Balmoral Handicap and the in-form Cerulean Bay has a chance of making it four out of nine.

The son of New Bay has been ultra consistent since being stepped back up to a mile in August, finishing second twice, including on the round course here at the Shergar Cup, and then winning his last two starts, both of which were at Goodwood.

His most recent win on the Downs was on Sunday, so he would be facing a quick turnaround should he line up at Ascot this weekend, but he is bang-in form and should have a great chance under a penalty with Danny Tudhope doing the steering, who has not ridden him in over a year but has won on him the last two times he has been on board.