Back or lay? Betfair Chase runner-by-runner guide and tip

There’s not been a double-figure field for the Betfair Chase since it was first run in 2005, and that’s not going to change on Saturday.

Four runners have been declared for the first Grade One race of the season in Britain, with Shishkin and Minella Drama heading to Ascot for the 1965 Chase.

We are left with a fascinating foursome, though, and the last time there were four runners, in 2019, Lostintranslation edged out Bristol De Mai in a thriller.

Here’s a guide to the four contenders in the £200,000 showpiece. Enjoy the big race live on Racing TV at 3.00pm.

Official Rating: 172. Betfair odds: 8/11.

Back: Triple Grade One winner who confirmed himself to be among the best around when runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup last season, having previously won the King George. Usually a fluent jumper and entitled to be sharper for his comeback run in the Charlie Hall Chase last month, when he tanked through the race only to be worn down by a racefit rival who was receiving 6lb. He’s usually ridden forward and there’s a chance he could get an easy lead here, with his principal rivals usually held up. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the Betfair Chase a record six times, while jockey Daryl Jacob is seeking a record fourth success in it. Bravemansgame has completed every race he has run in, clocking up more than 50 miles if you include his point-to-point win.

Lay: Having had only three weeks off, this will be the quickest turnaround he has had in his whole career. At Wetherby he again left the impression he’s more a cruiser than bruiser, and this race, over further, will again test his reserves unless the ground – described as heavy, soft in places – dries up this week. And if it does dry up, will underfoot conditions merely end up being tacky and holding? Given he’s such an athletic jumper, one wonders if the final-fence errors he has made on his past two starts – at Punchestown and Wetherby – can be attributed to him beginning to get weary. Harry Cobden has ridden him in all his 18 races under Rules but will be watching on at Ascot.

Verdict: He’s top-class but there are enough doubts to make his opposable at short odds.

Official Rating: 159. Betfair odds: 10/1.

Back: He’s a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner who was an emphatic winner of the Grand National in April. He beat an aggregate of 47 rivals for his Festival triumphs, and was up against 38 opponents at Aintree. Contrast that to Shishkin, who has met an aggregate of 83 rivals since gaining his first win over jumps! It goes without saying that Corach Rambler is blessed with great stamina and jumping prowess. The nine-year-old was subdued on his return, but he’s the type to always need a run (beaten first time out for the past three seasons) so don’t get too hung up on that. His connections harbour Gold Cup aspirations.

Lay: Whichever way you cut it, that comeback run at Kelso was disappointing as he never looked like getting competitive and, most unusually for him, made a mess of two out. His wins at Cheltenham and Aintree came off a handicap mark of 146, and he’s yet to prove he can cope with a rating of 159, let alone handle rivals here rated higher than 170.

Verdict: Has more to find on ratings and his return was underwhelming, but it’s hard to forget the manner of his big wins in the spring.

Official Rating: 166. Betfair odds: 15/8.

Back: He’s been off 253 days but that should be viewed as a positive as he goes well fresh, which he confirmed in emphatic manner in this race last year when winning by 11 lengths in a slick time. The previous season he’d pummelled the opposition in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree, plus finished third in the Gold Cup. The eight-year-old is well served by softish ground and it will be a surprise if conditions are not to his liking, even if the rain stays away. Sound jumper who had yet to fall in 21 races.

Lay: The form of his win 12 months ago looks a bit hollow, especially as hot favourite A Plus Tard ran no sort of race, while a below-par Bristol De Mai was one more tame run away from being retired. Protektorat himself disappointed in his next two races, while none of the quartet he beat managed a subsequent win (or did anything of note for the form.) His record fresh is good but the Skelton stable is struggling to hit top gear, with a strike-rate of 10 per cent in November ringing a few alarm bells. Only five of their past 65 runners have won, with three of those being odds-on.

Verdict: He was a commanding winner last year and, given he usually goes well fresh, this is something of a Cup final for him. Stable form is a niggle.

Official Rating: 160. Betfair odds: 10/1.

Back: His record over fences at Haydock reads 1121, with his only defeat coming at the hands of A Plus Tard in the 2021 running of this race when he suffered a leg wound and was running on ground too quick for him. His second Peter Marsh Chase win, nine weeks later, off a mark of 163 marked him down as a top notcher. His Cheltenham efforts look easy enough to overlook – it’s not his track and he’s never had the deep ground he is so effective on there – and his record fresh is encouraging. He missed last year’s Betfair Chase because of an untimely setback and was probably still short of his peak when a 14-length runner-up to Bravemansgame in the King George the following month. Venetia Williams has struck with ten of her past 24 runners (five of her beaten runners have been second) and will be hoping the mud is flying.

Lay: His overall record in Grade One races reads 625526, being beaten at least 14 lengths on each occasion. You could argue he’s merely a top-notch handicapper, but nothing more. Won’t want the ground to dry out, which it did two years ago when he was completely outspeeded by A Plus Tard. Fell when we last saw him in action, in the Irish National, and blemish-free rounds with him are a bit of a rarity.

Verdict: Folly to underestimate given his course form, staying power and penchant for soft ground, not to mention his stable’s wellbeing.

Bravemansgame is the clear pick on form and is preferred to Protektorat, the title holder, but course specialist ROYALE PAGAILLE is no forlorn hope to upstage the pair of them given all his virtues plus the brilliant form of his stable.

1. ROYALE PAGAILLE. 2. BRAVEMANSGAME. 3. PROTEKTORAT

The Betfair Chase - Sponsors Odds: 8/11 Bravemansgame, 15/8 Protektorat, 10/1 Corach Rambler, 10/1 Royale Pagaille.