Now that the dust has settled on this year’s Cheltenham Festival, there are already plenty of races priced up for next year’s four-day extravaganza. I have taken a look at all the markets on offer and share my five best bets at this very early stage. *This column was first published on Tuesday, March 17
Feel Gut (16-1)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Feel Gut was faultless on his stable debut in January.
Like with most ante-post bets this far out from the Festival, I am taking a bit of a punt here, but my guess is Feel Gut is above average, and he looks a natural type for the Supreme for this year’s winning trainer Nicky Henderson.
One thing we do know is that he jumps well and is not short of speed. Second behind the highly-regarded Macho Man in France, he made a perfect start for his new connections when comfortably winning a Junior Hurdle at Warwick in January, quickening seven and a half lengths clear of a subsequent winner and recording a Jump Index of 8.3.
It looks like he will retain his novice status for next season and it goes without saying he is open to bundles of improvement, with his latest success also coming off a four-month break. The 16-1 could look very big in nine months’ time should he win impressively in the autumn.
Old Park Star (9-2)
Arkle Novices’ Chase
Old Park Star: the current favourite for next year's Arkle. (Pic: Dan Abraham - focusonracing.com)
It is not usually my MO to be backing horses at single-figure odds for a race a year down the line, let alone at 9-2, but Old Park Star looks every inch a two-mile chaser and, in a race like the Arkle, this price could still be great value should he carry his exceptional form over hurdles to fences.
Nicky Henderson has a phenomenal record in the race and it is not hard to envisage Old Park Star going off a much shorter price than this in 12 months’ time. He seemingly has all the attributes needed for an Arkle. He is the right age (unlike Lulamba this year), he is a fast, accurate jumper, and he has won twice at the course. There are very few negatives.
His brother Chosen Mate showed his best form over the bigger obstacles and there is no reason why this progressive six-year-old cannot continue his swift progress and win at the Festival for a second year running.
Il Etait Temps (9-2)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Il Etait Temps: the third highest rated chaser in training according to Timeform and the one to side with again for the Champion Chase, says Alex Scott. (Pic: Dan Abraham - focusonracing.com)
Il Etait Temps is another horse short enough in the betting, but he has been there and done it and there was no fluke about his emphatic ten-length victory this year. He can repeat the feat next season.
He is currently vying for favouritism for next year's Champion Chase with the hugely talented Kopek Des Bordes, but I would rather side with the defending champion.
His only blemish outside of novice company was when falling in the Clarence House at Ascot in January, but the small grey could seemingly not get over the stiff fences on sticky ground and was transformed by the return to quicker ground at the Festival, along with the removal of his hood.
Rated 174 by Timeform, he only has Fact To File and Majborough ahead of him and he is an exceptional two-miler that can relax and settle off a fast early pace, can travel and jump, and is a strong stayer at the trip. There is a real argument to say he is still underrated and I think he will take all the beating yet again, particularly given a better preparation next year. He certainly looks the most reliable option.
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Selma De Vary (20-1)
Mares' Hurdle
Watch Selma De Vary's run in Friday's JCB Triumph Hurdle.
"Next year's horse" were the words uttered by Rich Ricci to Lydia Hislop straight after the daughter of Zarak managed an excellent fourth in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday.
With Lossiemouth surely set to line up in the Champion Hurdle again, I suspect the owners will fancy a crack at the Mares' with this fellow French recruit - and it looks an open enough division bar Wodhooh, who may also line up in the Champion next year in any case.
Selma De Vary was a real eye-catcher when making her first start for connections in the Grade One Spring Juvenile at the DRF, only finding the impressive Narciso Has too good. There, she recored the highest FSP (103.25%) and clocked by far the fastest time from the four-furlong pole to the one-furlong pole, before her effort petered out on the testing ground late on.
She was again held up in the Triumph on Friday and, despite her inexperience this side of the Channel over these hurdles, she recorded the second-highest Jump Index in the race.
She was keen enough early, which is a slight concern, but she finished her race off well and did not get the clearest run up the home straight. To finish as close as she did was impressive and she looks overpriced for next year's Grade One against her own sex back on the New Course.
Kitzbuhel (20-1)
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Kitzbuhel made all to win the Brown Advisory in impressive style. The early 20-1 about this six-year-old for next year’s Gold Cup simply looks far too big. I had reservations about the son of Cokoriko over this trip at the start of the season, as he was keen in the Liverpool Hurdle last April and didn’t seem to get the trip.
However, like many by his top-class sire, he has improved for fences and showed a tremendous attitude to fend off Final Demand in the Brown Advisory over 3m1f last week, dispelling any doubts about his ability to handle the undulations of Cheltenham and go left-handed. He recorded a Jump Index of 9.2, gaining almost nine lengths in the air – his jumping will be a real weapon in open company.
A scintillating winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, he looks a natural fit for the King George, and if he were to run well in that, his odds for the Gold Cup are likely to shorten dramatically. He is unlucky not to be four from four over fences and there could well be further improvement to come.
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