Angus McNae Verdict Extra: a 40/1 ante-post bet for the 1000 Guineas

This week’s edition of The Verdict concentrated on races from the July Festival at Newmarket. Click below to enjoy the show. 

The Race IQ data highlighted a few interesting performances, not least the fast time win of Giavellotto in the Princess of Wales’s stakes. He displayed plenty of speed for a stayer and is improving, with his chance in the Irish St Leger there for all to see. 

The Verdict also recommended backing Alsakib each-way in the Ebor at York for which he is trading at 12/1. He is a very strong stayer at a 1¾ miles and produced the best time of the day at York on Saturday, dipping 3.61s under the Race IQ par for a race of this standard at York. A strongly run Ebor will suit him ideally. 

I have an extra each-way ante post wager this week in the shape of the two-year-old

Desert Flower

, who won on debut at Newmarket on Saturday. She is worth a small interest, at 40/1, for next year’s 1000. The two-year-old fillies this year look a good bunch, but that price is too big to resist. 

Amidst inexperience Desert Flower quickened well off a strong pace to win impressively. 

She recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 100.80%, suggesting that she came home evenly in a strongly run race. She displayed an impressive turn of foot to sprint to the front from the rear. 

Her fourth furlong of 11.13sec was the fastest through that furlong and she backed that up with a fifth furlong of 11.05sec (40.57mph) which was the fastest furlong in the race. 

This turn of foot was too much for her rivals and she surged clear to win by 3¼ lengths. 

She needs to improve to reach the level already achieved by Bedtime Story and Fairy Godmother, but this was her debut and she is open to plenty of improvement. Quotes of 40/1 for the 1000 Guineas appeal. 

Data Summary for Desert Flower: 

Final time: 1m 25.76s (-0.93 under Race IQ Par) 

Fastest Furlong: F5: 11.05sec 

Top Speed: 40.57 mph 

Maximum Stride length: 7.99 metres 

Average Stride length: 7.61 metres 

At a much lower level, I have two horses to keep an eye on and back next time out. 

The winner of this race was Fields Of Gold, who featured on The Verdict this week. 

Back in fourth place was the debutante Our Terms who is a must for your Racing TV trackers. 

He was making his debut here and raced in rear towards the far side. At halfway, he was poorly placed in 11th place with the winner already in front. 

He then made a big move to get into contention. He went from 11th to fifth with a fast fifth furlong of 11.15sec, and he backed that up with an 11.36sec sixth furlong which was only bettered by the winner. This effort took him briefly into second place before he paid for his mid-race move and weakened. 

He showed enough ability here racing on the unfavoured side of the track to think that he will win next time out. 

This was a low-grade Class 6 handicap run on Monday, but Braes of Doune will be winning soon given the data produced here. 

This was a steadily run race and Braes of Doune was inconvenienced by initially being held–up in ninth. 

He produced a fine finishing effort to finish fourth but was faced with an impossible task trying to run down horses who were quickening in front of him. 

His final two furlongs of 22.72sec was the fastest in the race, with the winner recording 23.23sec. 

If you break down his finishing effort, his individual splits are impressive. It’s not often at this grade that a horse is able to run two sub-11sec furlongs but Braes of Doune was the only horse in the race that did so. He recorded 10.81sec through furlong and then backed that up with a 10.94sec furlong. 

He is entered at Ayr on Monday over 7f and will be of interest, although his only career win was at Ayr over 1m2f. He will be winning soon.