Angus McNae's tops tips for week seven of the Dubai Carnival
By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Dirt racing is the toughest form of horse racing in existence. Whether winning by a nose or ten lengths, the mental and physical exertion is considerable and can take its toll.
Look at Arrogate who won the Dubai World Cup in 2017. After missing the break on a speed-favouring track, he faced kickback, ran wide losing ground, made a big effort earlier than ideal and then kept pulling out more down the home straight.
It was one of the most remarkable performances I have ever seen on dirt. Yet it finished him, he never won again. He gave his all, went to a place he did not want to revisit and never went back again. He was the ultimate bounce.
A more subtle variety of the bounce was in evidence last week. In my opinion, both Walking Thunder, who finished second in the UAE 2000 Guineas, and North America, who won round two of the Maktoum Challenge, both recoiled from their most recent efforts.
In Walking Thunder’s case, he was unable to repeat a sensational performance in the UAE 2000 Guineas trial which effectively took the edge off him.
North America bounced a fair bit higher though. Yesm he still won round two of the Maktoum Challenge, but he lacked the zest and brilliance of his win in round one.
He was tired at the line and I do not believe he was idling. In round one, he was spectacular and clocked a fast time, but he bounced in round two and got away with it because of the class of opposition.
The bounce can, at its extreme, ruin careers at its base level because it causes horses to underperform after a big effort.
Whatever form it takes, it must be noted that it is more prevalent in dirt racing because of the simple dynamics of racing on that surface.
A good card at Meydan this week and I will try and follow up the brace of winners we had last week.
Angus McNae
Finished: 1stSP: 1/4
This five-furlong turf sprint should prove to be a perfect launch pad for this Group One performer. He stands head and shoulders above these in terms of class and, even if not fully wound up, he should give this lot a sprinting lesson.
He handles the track as he proved last year behind Ertijaal and went on to land the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot . This is a stepping stone to the Al Quoz sprint where he has unfinished business having been withdrawn at the start last year. He should win very easily.
Angus McNae
Finished: 3rdSP: 13/8
There is little doubt that this horse is the class act in the race. He won the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night in 2018 which concluded a sensational season.
He wasn’t able to maintain the momentum on his seasonal reappearance when failing to get the lead in round one of the Maktoum Challenge and ran below par.
His wellbeing is the main issue, but if he is anywhere near his best, he will win.
I take him to make all from stall one and, if he gets an easy lead, he will be hard to catch.
Angus McNae
Finished: 1stSP: 1/1
This horse is a newcomer to the Meydan scene and the type that trainer Charlie Appleby excels with.
He brings decent Listed form from Deauville to the table and is lightly raced having had just two starts.
In a field where most are relatively exposed, he can make a winning start to his Dubai career despite a wide draw.
Angus McNae
Finished: 1stSP: 2/7
When this filly won the Cape Verdi beating five of her opponents in this race, I said live on Racing TV that the Balanchine was all over.
I have no reason to doubt myself four weeks later. I was impressed with the turn of foot this filly showed having been held up off a modest gallop. and now that connections have worked out that she needs riding patiently, she is open to a lot of improvement.
From her wide draw, I am sure she will be tucked in and then launched late to utilise her sharp turn of foot.
The extra furlong here should be no problem and she should win.
Angus McNae
Finished: 3rdSP: 2/1
Walton Street did us a favour in my column at last year’s Carnival and having plied his trade in deeper waters thereafter, he can take advantage of dropping back into a handicap.
He was thought good enough by connections to contest races like the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury where he lacked the pace necessary to win a Group Three.
He is essentially a strong stayer and could make up into a decent Cup horse in Europe next season. For now, though, this handicap looks to be within his grasp on his seasonal return.
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