Aidan O'Brien and the Dante-Derby double: Will Lion put record straight?

Aidan O’Brien has dominated the traditional Betfred trials but he’s saving the best for last, or at least so it seems, with

The Lion In Winter

making his eagerly awaited return in the Al Basti Equiworld Dante Stakes at York on Thursday. 

Unbeaten, lauded, and with the form of his record-breaking win in the Acomb Stakes last year having a glow, The Lion In Winter heads the market for the premier Classic at Epsom next month despite nine months on the sidelines and any number of his stablemates having advanced their claims in recent weeks. 

The sponsors are among those who make him no bigger than 11-4 to prevail next month and, at first glance, the Derby favourite showing up in the principal trial for the big race makes perfect sense. 

But it’s not that straightforward. Not at all, in fact, and the stats, coupled with an O’Brien bulletin on Tuesday, will do little to settle the nerves of his supporters. 

Trainers are creatures of habit and O’Brien is no different. He likes sticking to his tried and tested blueprints. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 

For example, his ten winners of the 2000 Guineas have all been making their seasonal reappearances. His ten Derby winners? They’ve auditioned in the 2000 Guineas (four times), Derby Trial at Leopardstown (twice), Chester (twice), Lingfield (once) and The Curragh (once, when the Coronavirus Pandemic turned things upside down). 

It seems clear that he does not regard the Dante as the best stepping stone to Epsom and rarely, if ever, asks his principal candidate to line up there. Instead, he generally sends something from his reserves to represent him on the Knavesmire: a scout or two to check out what the home team have among their defences. 

The last of his four winners of the Group Two feature was Cape Blanco, in 2010, but only two of his victors went on to Epsom and neither made any impact. 

Since then, O’Brien has had 17 runners in the Dante and all have been beaten. Thirteen have gone off at single-figure odds – four of them being favourites – but the blind faith of punters has been misguided and the money has stayed in the satchels of the bookies. 

Perhaps more pertinent, only four of those 17 travelled on to the Surrey Downs, and that fits the overall pattern when it comes to O’Brien and the Dante, with only seven of his 27 runners in the ten-furlong contest going on to run in the Derby. 

The Lion In Winter is going to have buck the trends, then, and nobody needs telling that his intended first destination of 2025 was not York. 

Had everything gone to plan, then the colt who impressed when winning on his debut at The Curragh before landing the Acomb in a course record time at York in August, would have made his reappearance in the 2000 Guineas. 

But in late March O’Brien revealed he might not be ready for Newmarket because he had “taken a little bit of time to come right so he’s a little bit behind the others”. 

The first Classic of the season (like last season’s Dewhurst) duly passed by without him, with Ruling Court, who had finished third in the Acomb, taking maximum advantage of his absence. 

Twelve days later, the son of Sea The Stars will be back in action, for what is effectively the final Derby trial available. He's no bigger than 5-4 to preserve his unbeaten record at the expense of ten rivals.

However, putting two and two together, and possibly coming up with five, it feels like O’Brien has wanted/needed every available day to get him tuned up and therefore been left with little option but to run the Derby market leader in a race he has not won for 15 years. 

Not even O’Brien dare send a Derby aspirant straight to the race without a prep, even though he has a replica of Tattenham Corner at his Ballydoyle base. 

“We’re delighted that it looks like he’s going to make it,” O’Brien said on Tuesday. “We weren’t sure he would – he’s been off a long time. But with the Derby in mind, it was the perfect prep. Obviously, it’s a very good Derby trial. 

“There’s two more two days to go, but it looks like he’s going to be fine. He’s going to improve a ton from whatever he does. Hopefully, he’s going to run well and that we’ve enough done with him to help him to run well. It’s going to be very interesting. Hopefully, we have him in a good enough place to show what his potential could be.” 

Had time not been an issue, he would have perhaps sent him to Chester, for either the Chester Vase or Dee Stakes. It’s abundantly clear that O’Brien loves giving his potential Classic horses a spin at a track, probably because they must engage their brains quickly and be extra nimble on their feet. He kind of gets two races into them for the price of one. 

Lambourn gave the yard an eleventh win in the former last week, while Mount Kilimanjaro gave the stable a twelfth Dee Stakes triumph 24 hours later. Incidentally, O’Brien’s previous Chester Vase winners all went on to run in the Derby, while he had the first three home in 2017, and the trio met again at Epsom. 

O’Brien is playing the hand he has been dealt. Similar occurred in 2019, after all, when he dominated the Derby Trials but ended up running the well-touted Japan in the Dante. He was a big drifter in the betting and ran accordingly - plugging on to finish fourth - but he was transformed at Epsom 16 days later, when beaten under a length into third. 

The Lion In Winter has got by far the best form heading into Thursday’s race and his pedigree suggests stepping up in trip will also be a positive. And we know the combination of fast ground and York hold no fears for him, and that O’Brien has his team in fabulous order. 

However, regarding the trip, O’Brien has issued a note of caution: “You can never be sure,” he said. “He doesn’t work like a mile and a half horse, really. He works like a miler.  I know most Sea The Stars do stay, but obviously we’re going to have to wait and see first before we can be really sure of anything.” 

Perhaps there’s a bit of commercial/marketing talk here. If he goes onto scale the heights over middle distances, O’Brien has also floated the idea of him having lots of speed. It would only enhance his appeal/value as a stallion. 

But his days in the breeding sheds remain some way off. First, he’s got to deal with Plan B, without the baggage of knowing that no previous O’Brien Dante runner has gone on to win at Epsom. One thing is for certain: The Lion In Winter is going to have to warm up very quickly over the coming days if he is to put the record straight.