A 50/1 ante-post bet for the bet365 Gold Cup

The title chasing trio of Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton and Paul Nicholls all have well-fancied contenders for the bet365 Gold Cup at on Saturday but I’m hoping it will be one of the smaller stables that is left celebrating.

Lydia Richard is 170th place in the trainers’ championship but her

Certainly Red

, one of only a handful of horses she trains from her Sussex base, looks seriously underestimated in the market at the 50/1 offered by the sponsors, Betfair and Paddy Power.

This course winner has been expensive to follow this campaign but testing ground has been against him on several occasions and his jumping has also let him down, including when a close third to Sam Brown (subsequently a fine second at Aintree) at Ascot last time. He almost certainly would have won had he got from A to B more efficiently that day, with the RaceiQ data revealing he lost six lengths with his leaping.

It’s been a similar story on his two visits to Sandown this season, when a keeping-on third in the London National in December and then when runner-up in early February. He finished with a flourish in the latter contest to be runner-up after being dropped back to 3m, a trip that looks on the sharp side for him nowadays.

Certainly Red remains unexposed over long distances, and this will be the first time he’s had the combination of a longer trip and better going. I’m hoping that will help him get into a better rhythm and, if he does, then he has what it takes to outrun his chunky odds.

Keep in mind, too, that he went off at just 10/1 when seventh in last year’s renewal, when he ran as if past his best for the season under a claimer who had never previously ridden him. This time he’s 7lb lower in the ratings with his latest run arguably his best of the campaign, plus I’d imagine Marc Goldstein will be back on board this time as all six of Certainly Red’s wins have been achieved with him in the saddle.

Richards has had four winners from 15 runners with her runners since the turn of the year (Flat and Jumps) and that’s a strike-rate plenty would be proud of.

Kitty’s Light is the right favourite as he was and was an excellent fifth in the Grand National plus has got a fabulous record in the race (desperately unlucky not to win in 2021; third in 2022; then won last year).

His victory 12 months ago, off a 5lb lower mark, came just a week after he had won the Scottish Grand National, but it’s hard to believe his exploits on deeper ground at Aintree (he had to gallop more than a minute longer than at Ayr in a stronger race) won’t have left some kind of mark. He’s no bigger than 4/1 and, even if he wins, I can live with not backing him at that price.

The other one I’m going to have a smaller second bet on Amirite, who is available at 10/1.

Henry de Bromhead’s raider has long looked like he’s got a big staying prize in him and connections must have reluctantly swerved the options he had at the Cheltenham Festival (Ultima and Kim Muir) as decent ground is considered important for him.

He was clearly not right when a disappointing favourite in the Irish Grand National last term and has put that behind him. He was a massive eye-catcher at Cheltenham in the autumn, when far too fresh and his saddle slipped, before being anything but disgraced behind Meetingofthewaters in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, on ground that would have been far from ideal for him.

I also flirted with 20/1 chance Kinondo Kwetu, who shaped well after more than five months off in the staying handicap chase at Aintree on Grand National Day after failing to make the cut for the big race. The better ground at Sandown will be more to his liking and that outing may have added an edge, but you can’t back them all. 

£7 each-way on Certainly Red at 50/1 with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power (four places – Betfred go 40/1 and five places) 

£3 each-way on Amirite at a general 10/1 (four places – Betfred go 9/1 and five places)