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2026 Lexus Melbourne Cup preview: 25-1 and 18-1 tips
By Nic Doggett
Last Updated: Sun 1 Nov 2026
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Nic Doggett expects improvement from a Caulfield Cup also-ran as he previews Tuesday's race at Flemington that stops a nation.
Thundery showers are forecast for Melbourne on Monday so there's a strong chance that the going – currently described as good – could ride a bit slower come race time (4am on Tuesday morning).
Joseph O'Brien's Ascot Stakes runner-up Defiantly has been ruled out, but his Royal Ascot conqueror Kizlyar still forms part of a team of five for the trainer – bettered only by Ciaron Maher who saddles six as he bids for a second win in the race following Gold Trip's 2022 success.
Although Maher's three-year-old Point Of Law – winner of the Bahrain Trophy in July for John & Thady Gosden – heads the betting following a defeat of O'Brien's Small Fry in a Geelong Group Three a fortnight ago, I like one of his stablemates at a price following an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup last month: ZAHRANN.
Like a few in this 24-strong field, British and Irish readers may remember this horse when he was trained by Johnny Murtagh for the Aga Khan, where he was good enough to win a Curragh Group Three two months after finishing second to Amiloc in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot.
He's got another year under his belt and made a pleasing return when fourth (beaten less than two lengths) by subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Kingswood, before winning a Group Three there.
Things didn't go right for him in the Group One Turnbull Stakes at Flemington at the start of last month, but he put in a much better effort when a never-nearer fourth back at Caulfield last time, having to wait for a gap and then not given a hard time in the closing stages.
He's not tried two miles before, but that wasn't a problem for half of the last 12 winners, and this general 25-1 chance (with domestic bookmakers) looks like he has a good blend of speed and stamina.
There's a change of rider on Tuesday, too, with Ben Pelham – husband of last year's winning jockey Jamie – coming in for Ethan Brown, and that looks a good move given his vast wealth of experience on the big occasion; amongst 25 top-level wins, one of his biggest moments came when riding Black Caviar to success at this meeting in 2010.
Could Joseph O'Brien win it again after Rekindling (pictured) and Twlight Payment?
In terms of the draw for the O'Brien raiders, it's been kindest to SONS AND LOVERS who is in stall three on his first start since finishing second to Arabian Crown in a Leopardstown Group Three in September.
It's not been so favourable for James J Braddock, the three-year-old who was a length and a half further behind that day; any rain would be in his favour, but even with the booking of Craig Williams it looks a very tough draw, as it does for last year's runner-up Goodie Two Shoes in 19 (rain not in her favour), Curragh Cup winner Trustyoursintinct in 18, and Kizlyar (still of interest at the prices with Beau Mertens a notable booking) in 20.
But I keep coming back to top-weight Sons And Lovers whose Leopardstown run has been franked by the winner going on to win the Grade One Woodbine International in Canada, and I think it's a big plus having regular rider Dylan Browne McMonagle on board the five-year-old who he described as "an improving horse and he's getting better with age" following his Longchamp win in July.
A tough, prominent racer who has a good draw, and was a winner the last time he contested a valuable handicap abroad (at Riyadh in February), he looks sure to give backers a good run for their money at 18-1, and it's worth noting that this race has changed a bit in recent times; once rare, four of the last 10 winners have carried 56.5kg or more.
In terms of notable jockey bookings elsewhere, Zac Lloyd gets the leg up on the George Boughey-trained Ebor runner-up Hopewell Rock, Mark Zahra rides last year's third Middle Earth, while Damian Lane should have more of an idea of Wine Dark Sea's capabilities having been a little too aggressive from a wide draw on him in the Caulfield Cup.
Outsider Future History, meanwhile, has last year's winning jockey Jamie Melham on board as she bids to emulate Zahra who won the race in both 2022 and 2023; he was the first back-to-back winning rider since Glen Boss won three in a row on Makybe Diva between 2003 and 2005.
Selections
Zahrann each-way at 25-1 (general)
Sons And Lovers each-way at 18-1(general)
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