US Racing expert Rachel Candelora reveals her five best bets for the Breeders'Cup this week, all live on Racing TV!
Rachel will also be joining Oli Bell and Tom Bull in the Racing TV studio on Wednesday evening to preview the best of the action at the Breeders' Cup this week!
This son of Maclean’s Music needs no introduction, as this unexposed three-year-old took Britain by storm this summer with his demolition job in the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot when embarrassing all of the handicappers who let him into the race with a lowly rating of 100!
Bacio won the Group One Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes at York on his next start where the only worries that jockey Juan Hernandez had was whether he could catch his flight back to California for some big rides the next day.
Off the back of the Nunthorpe win, I immediately thought that he wins the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. He has the massive advantage of racing from his own stable, at the track he trains at everyday, and he got drawn in stall three, which is the ideal post position!
The last winning favourite in the Turf Sprint was in 2021 when the Wesley Ward-trained three-year-old, Golden Pal, won the race at Del Mar. This year, Ward has another very exciting three-year-old.
I would suggest with this race, given that his best form has come in Europe, to have a look at the US Tote Pools (most bookmakers now allow you to bet into them) as he will probably be a bigger price in the US pools, than he will be with British Bookmakers.
Further Ado (Win)
Race: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (6.26, Saturday).
In the 19-year history of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, there have only been seven winning favourites. However, five of them have come in the past six years, including three odds-on favourite.
Further Ado should be an odds-on shot, and UK Bookmakers (at time of writing) have him chalked up at a general 11-4.
This son of Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Gun Runner, should be running in the Classic, but his connections opted for this race as the “easier race to win”. Given that he is retiring to Spendthrift Farms after his Breeders’ Cup appearance, they wanted to give him every chance to boost his stallion appeal.
Further Ado has run at Keeneland twice, and has won at Keeneland twice, including when landing the Grade One Bluegrass Stakes this spring by over ten lengths.
He also broke his maiden at Keeneland by 20 lengths, and is a different horse at the Lexington venue. Last time out he finished second, beaten hald a length, in the Grade One Pennsylvania Derby, and the winner ,The Puma, runs in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Trainer Brad Cox is coming off a disappointing recent spell at Keeneland, he has won this race in the past with Knicks Go in 2020 at Keeneland.
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Englishman (Win) and Nakatomi (Place)
Race: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (7.42, Saturday).
Given that the reigning Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners have been on track at Keeneland for the past few weeks, all of the talk regarding a three-year-old has been about Englishman, and not Golden Tempo or Napolean Solo.
This unexposed sprinter, trained by Kentucky Derby winning-trainer Cherie DeVaux, has impressed throughout his short career, winning four of his five starts by over three lengths each time.
His only defeat came in the Grade Two Pat Day Mile on Derby Day. Since that defeat, he has recorded two Grade One wins over seven furlongs in the Woody Stephens, and the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga. Stall 13 of 13 is a good draw, as it will allow jockey Jose Ortiz to keep him out of the inevitable traffic trouble that the Breeders' Cup Sprint tends to produce.
On the other end of the spectrum is Nakatomi, a totally exposed seven-year-old who is having his fourth start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Trained by Wesley Ward, this is the first time that Nakatomi has been able to run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at his home track, a venue where his record reads five wins, and two placed efforts from eight starts.
In the entire Breeders’ Cup series, he is one of the contenders that will improve for the race being run at Keeneland, and reigning Keeneland Champion Jockey Tyler Gaffailione replaces the injured Irad Ortiz Jr.
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Notable Speech (Win)
Race: Breeders’ Cup Mile (8.20, Saturday).
Trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick have won the Breeders’ Cup Mile four times in the past five years, a feat no other trainer/jockey combo has achieved.
For the third time here, they bring the ultra-consistent Notable Speech to defend his crown in a race where five previous winners have returned to retain their Championship.
Arguably, Notable Speech is in the best form of his career this season following his victory the Group One BOYLE Sports Lockinge Stakes, and when showcasing his turn of foot to score over a trip too short in the Group One Sky Bet City Of York Stakes.
Charlie Appleby then sent him to Woodbine for his final prep in the Woodbine Mile, the same final prep he used last year, and he destroyed the field.
The runner-up at Woodbine, Deterministic, had a perfect front-running trip, controlling the pace, but once Notable Speech was asked, he ran past Deterministic like he was standing still.
It is fair to say that, overall, this is not a stellar renewal of the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, with the only real superstar being three-time Group One winner Diamond Necklace.
She has shown tremendous versatility, ground and track-wise, throughout her campaign, but she has had some tough races (including when a close third in the Arc last time out. Given her poor draw in stall 12, I am therefore prepared to look elsewhere for some value.
One key stat in this race is that the Euro’s have won all three editions of the Breeders' Cup Turf previously run at Keeneland, and I am hoping the George Boughey-trained mare Survie can outrun her odds.
The simple fact is that this five-year-old is no where near this class in Europe, but American racing seems to suit her down to the ground, and she has looked a totally different performer in her two August wins at Saratoga, including when sweeping six wide into the straight to get up late in the Grade One Christophe Clement Turf.
Similar to Saratoga, the Haggin Turf Course at Keeneland is only seven and a half furlongs round, with 4 per cent banking on the turns. For a horse making a slingshot move, from off the pace into the homestretch, it is like a cyclist building up momentum on a velodrome.
I love the fact that top-rider Flavien Prat gets back aboard her (he was aboard for her first Grade Two win at Saratoga), and although she may not be good enough to win this, her price is too big to ignore. I will have a small win bet on her, and a larger place bet.
Breeders’ Cup Classic preview
I am not going to give a top pick in the Breeders' Cup Classic as it looks a cracking renewal. However, here are some thoughts on the race.
Sovereignty has done me good service over the past two years, but he once again comes into the Breeders’ Cup with a cloud over his head in that he has a small quarter crack on his left-hind foot, and has been training in a z-bar shoe plus will race in quarter shoes.
Forever Young, the reigning champion, was less than impressive in his final prep when winning the Grade One Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, and in the past few days, he has been displaying worrying behavior on track in the mornings.
There are therefore two contenders that are getting slightly ignored - Dubai World Cup winner Magnitude and the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo.
The Steve Asmussen-trained Magnitude has been the absolute buzz horse in the morning for the past month, and his two Grade One successes this season put him bang in contention.
He will also sit in behind the front-running speed, and he should get first run on the leaders in the stretch.
The three-year-old, Golden Tempo, has been ignored, not because he doesn’t have the class, but because he hasn’t made any news. Since his third in the Grade One Travers, his connections have purposely just trained him up to this race at Keeneland.
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