Harry Allwood takes a closer look at Wednesday's 1895 Duke Of Clipper Stakes on day one of the Dante Festival at York, and shares his verdict on each contender plus reveals who he is siding with. Watch the Group Two contest live on Racing TV!
1. Elite Status
Trainer: Karl Burke. Jockey: Clifford Lee. Best odds:
He was billed as a "potential superstar sprinter" by Karl Burke a couple of years ago, although it is fair to say he hasn't quite lived up to expectations just yet, despite scoring twice at Group Three level.
His victory in the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury last summer is strong form, and has been franked multiple times since. He was also strongly fancied for the Commonwealth Cup prior to that, but was forced to bypass the race.
Connections clearly believe he is a Group One performer, but his final two outings at the highest level last season were disappointing, and his form figures in Group One contests now read 7880.
Excuses can be made for his past two outings, though. He had an unfavourable draw at Haydock, and testing conditions were probably against on Champions Day.
Burke remains confident Elite Status will develop into a Group One performer this season. He said: "Elite Status is another we’re hoping can develop into a Group 1 horse. He’s a very good horse, but he probably wouldn’t have the natural speed that Night Raider’s got, but he stays the six very strongly. It’s a shame they have to run against each other."
Based on those comments, and the betting, Night Raider appears the yard's number one contender, and this four-year-old needs to improve again to strike here.
2. Inisherin
Trainer: Kevin Ryan. Jockey: Ryan Moore. Best odds: 9-4.
Progressed in giant strides last year having finished sixth in the Betfred 2000 Guineas before bolting up in the Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes. He also impressed when claiming Group One glory in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
However, his improvement appeared to stall in the July Cup on his next start, after which connections said he didn't handle the track. There didn't appear any excuses for his disappointing effort in the Betfair Sprint Cup on his final start, though, and he faded tamely there.
The four-year-old has been given a wind op since last season, and Ryan Moore has been booked to ride, which is a positive sign. He's also a few pounds ahead of his rivals on ratings, and if he does bounce back to his best, he's arguably the one to beat, despite returning with a bit to prove now.
3. Kerdos
Trainer: Clive Cox. Jockey: Rossa Ryan. Best odds: 20-1.
Has raced predominantly over five furlongs for the past couple of seasons, and produced a career best to win the Group Two Betfred Temple Stakes last year. He was highly tried afterwards, and performed with credit in defeat at the highest level, including when a staying-on fourth in the Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh.
That was another effort that hinted six furlongs is worth a go, and if he is able to last home, which is likely at this track on quick ground, then he isn't without hope based on the strength of his form last season.
He's already a dual winner over six furlongs, albeit those were on his first two outings as a two-year-old, and connections are keen to explore options over this trip.
One negative is he does appear best suited with some give in the ground, and he's unlikely to get his optimum conditions on Wednesday.
4. Marshman
Trainer: Karl Burke. Jockey: Sam James. Best odds: 16-1.
A talented sprinter who has Listed and Group Three glory next to his name. He also produced a smart performance when landing a strong handicap off a rating of 102 on his first start this year.
Karl Burke's charge started slowly when fifth in this race two years ago, and also disappointed last year, and those two efforts suggest he has a bit to find, as do the ratings.
Connections are probably hoping he can pick up some place money here, but he was gelded and given a wind op ahead of his return this year, and that does appear to have improved him slightly.
He also has the advantage of race fitness, and won on good to firm ground as a two-year-old, so conditions may not be a disadvantage, despite the fact Burke believes he is another who prefers cut in the ground.
5. Night Raider
Trainer: Karl Burke. Jockey: Oisin Murphy. Best odds: 3-1.
“I think he’s a Group One sprinter in the making. He’s got to prove that he does it on grass, but I have no doubt that he will," says Karl Burke, and it is no surprise to see his sprinter vying for favouritism following his hugely impressive victory at Newcastle in November.
As Burke eludes to, Night Raider's biggest question mark is how he will handle the return to turf. He disappointed twice - in a Group One and a Group Three - on his first two starts on turf last year, and again ran below par at Newmarket in August on his first outing since a wind op.
In fairness, the ground was probably against him there, and he proved the wind op had worked when storming to victory at Kempton before pulverising his rivals in a Listed contest at Newcastle last time out to make it four from four on the all-weather.
If he is able to reproduce that form on fast ground at York, then he is going to be involved in the finish, but it is a risk backing him until he has shown his best on turf.
6. Royal Zabeel
Trainer: Mick Appleby. Jockey: Tom Marquand. Best odds: 28-1.
Has improved over the past few months after being gelded, and joining the Mick Appleby yard, and having returned on a rating of 82 in November on his first outing for Appleby, he now finds himself on a rating of 111.
That is mainly due to winning a Listed contest at Wolverhampton in March having won a couple of decent handicaps on the all-weather during the winter, and was beaten just over two lengths when sixth in a Group Three last time out.
He was unsuited by a steady pace there, and deserves another chance at this sort of level. This does look a strong Group Two, though, and while he has the advantage of race fitness, he will need a few to underperform to go close.
7. Flora Of Bermuda
Trainer: Andrew Balding. Jockey: PJ McDonald. Best odds: 13-2.
Has been a consistent performer over the past couple of years, and gained a deserved Group Three victory over this course and distance last year.
That effort can also be marked up as she was short of room at a crucial stage, and well on top at the finish. She clearly thrived afterwards as she was a luckless fifth in the Betfair Sprint Cup afterwards, and was only narrowly denied when third in the British Champions Sprint Stakes when last seen.
That is strong form, and she should also have more to offer this season, with connections surely hoping for a Group One victory following her progress last year.
She has appeared to be best suited by some give in the ground, which is a slight concern, and good to firm ground is the biggest concern for her here.
8. Rage Of Bamby
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton. Jockey: Charlie Bishop. Best odds: 25-1.
Has run some of her best races over this course and distance and bounced back to form following a disrupted campaign last year.
She signed off with a game Listed victory at Newmarket last season and has gone well fresh in the past, so the lack of a recent run isn't a huge concern.
Eve Johnson Houghton's mare also relishes faster ground, so will get her optimum conditions on Wednesday, and probably hasn't fulfilled her potential just yet.
Another step forward is required here, though, and she has work to do on the ratings to trouble the leading protagonists.
Harry's big-race verdict:
A tricky puzzle to solve. Night Raider looked a Group One performer last time out, but his record on turf is worrying. Cases can be made for Flora Of Bermuda and Kerdos, although they would both prefer cut in the ground, and Marshman, Rage Of Bamby and Royal Zabeel all need to improve considerably to score.
Elite Status should enjoy this test, and he remains with potential this season. However, preference is for INISHERIN, the only Group One winner in the field, and while he does have a bit to prove now following a couple of below-par efforts last season, he's the potential class act in this field.
Ryan Moore is a positive jockey booking, and this four-year-old should have more to offer with just seven starts under his belt. He's also had a wind op ahead of his return, and is the one to beat on ratings.
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