J S Hubbuck Agricultural Merchants Handicap Chase (Class 4) (Turf)

8 May 2021

Soft
5yo+ 3M 41Y 0-110 Winner: £3,812 (13 runners)
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Silk
Horse
Jockey Trainer
Form/Equip
Wgt/Age
OR
5
4
3
2
1
BF
Comment: Dual chase winner who fell markedly in the weights and confirmed he's competitive again with a pair of runner-up efforts to end 2020. Needs considering back from a break.
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
7/2
4/1
7/2
7/2
7/2
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D
Comment: Gained breakthrough win in 3m handicap hurdle at Wetherby last month, but he was not in the same form next 2 starts and back over fences now.
7/2
5/1
4/1
4/1
7/2
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
7/2
4/1
4/1
4/1
39/10
4/1
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CD
Comment: Won twice over C&D in 2019. Seen just twice last season but shaped as if retaining ability when third over C&D 5 weeks ago, likely to have lasted longer as a threat but for some interference. Player.
6/1
11/2
11/2
6/1
6/1
11/2
11/2
11/2
11/2
5/1
11/2
11/2
27/5
11/2
11/2
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Comment: Won the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018 but has lost his way badly. Off 14 months and never a factor on debut for this yard at Carlisle 5 weeks ago.
15/2
15/2
15/2
7/1
15/2
13/2
15/2
15/2
15/2
15/2
15/2
7/1
15/2
39/5
15/2
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Comment: Still looking for first success under Rules but returned to form when third at Wetherby (24.1f, good) and not disgraced next time. Jumping remains a concern back over fences. Change of headgear.
17/2
9/1
17/2
17/2
17/2
8/1
17/2
17/2
17/2
8/1
15/2
17/2
15/2
8/1
8/1
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12
3142/3314-
10-3
12
87
10/1
CDBF
Comment: Veteran who belatedly shed maiden tag over C&D 17 month ago and overcame being 6 lb out of the weights to cause a surprise at Newcastle in March. Creditable fourth under a penalty here since.
8/1
8/1
8/1
17/2
8/1
8/1
8/1
10/1
8/1
15/2
17/2
8/1
7/1
38/5
8/1
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CD
Comment: Hit the target twice in 2019/20, including over this C&D. Entitled to come on for reappearance spin at Uttoxeter (first run for 13 months), but others make more appeal all the same.
11/1
12/1
10/1
9/1
11/1
9/1
9/1
17/2
17/2
17/2
9/1
11/1
19/2
12/1
10/1
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CD
Comment: Better than ever when winning handicaps here on first 2 starts last season. However, form has nosedived since and jumping continues to be an issue.
12/1
14/1
14/1
14/1
12/1
12/1
12/1
12/1
12/1
11/1
12/1
14/1
12/1
25/2
14/1
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15
03RP/65R-
z
9-11
9
84
20/1
Comment: Little promise since a fairly encouraging chase debut at Ayr. 3 lb out of the handicap.
18/1
16/1
20/1
18/1
18/1
18/1
18/1
20/1
18/1
16/1
16/1
20/1
35/2
16/1
16/1
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14
311P4P80-
+1
10-0
9
84
25/1
C
Comment: Dual winner here in October but form has nosedived since and stamina to prove at this trip. Tongue strap on for 1st time.
25/1
25/1
22/1
22/1
25/1
18/1
20/1
18/1
18/1
20/1
20/1
22/1
21/1
16/1
22/1
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3
F4/13PP4-
11-7
11
105
25/1
C
Comment: Veteran chaser who returned from a year off to win here (31.9f) in November. His last 3 efforts have been very tame, though.
25/1
20/1
22/1
25/1
25/1
25/1
25/1
25/1
25/1
22/1
22/1
25/1
18/1
21/1
20/1
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Comment: Remains winless following 20 starts under Rules and well held on debut for this yard last time.
35/1
40/1
33/1
33/1
35/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
33/1
28/1
33/1
33/1
25/1
33/1
33/1
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Comment: Improved when opening chase account in a handicap at Kelso 14 months ago but just the one creditable effort since and ran a moody race tried in blinkers latest.
40/1
50/1
40/1
40/1
40/1
40/1
40/1
40/1
40/1
33/1
40/1
40/1
39/1
28/1
40/1
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C
Comment: On the decline and miles out of the handicap.
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Comment: Temperamental sort, though last 2 starts have been respectable. Now below last winning mark.
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Comment: Multiple point winner and easily best effort under Rules when fourth of 14 in handicap chase over C&D (good to soft, 9/2) 19 days ago, though his jumping technique is unconventional to say the least.
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N/A

VERDICT
1st
8
Absolutely Dylan (IRE)
4/1
2nd
5
Prince Dundee (IRE)
6/1
3rd
2
Well Smitten (IRE)
ABSOLUTELY DYLAN is still weighted to win one of these and this could be it with his yard going well. Prince Dundee has a good record here and showed he retains his ability when third over C&D last time, so rates the main threat ahead of Well Smitten, who has dipped below his last winning mark.
RACE HINTS
Pace Forecast
Even
Specific Place Hint: Well Smitten shouldn’t be inconvenienced if looking to adopt a prominent position: The forecast decent pace still isn’t likely to sway the advantage towards those usually ridden further back such as is Square Viviani.
Individual Price Hint: Well Smitten traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts: Hidden Cargo traded at 10% or less of BSP and 25% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts.
Flags
Horses for courses (positive)
Horses for courses (negative)
Warning horse
Trainer first time headgear
Trainer in form
Trainer out of form
Trainer/Jockey Uplift
Trainer returning from a break
Trainer handicap debutant
Horse in focus
Sectional timing
Sire course strike rate
Sire distance strike rate
Sire going strike rate
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