Tote Placepot Your First Bet Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Polytrack)

6 May 2021

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3yo+ 7F Winner: £2,862 (11 runners)
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Silk
Horse
Jockey Trainer
Form/Equip
Wgt/Age
OR
5
4
3
2
1
Comment: Promising individual. 10/1, won 11-runner minor event at Kempton (6f) on debut. Off 6 months. Open to improvement and holds leading claims.
6/4
13/8
13/8
13/8
6/4
13/8
13/8
13/8
13/8
13/8
6/4
6/4
SP
13/8
13/8
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D
Comment: Twice-raced winner. 2/1 and cheekpieces on for 1st time, won 5-runner minor event at Wolverhampton (7.2f), keeping on well. Off 150 days. Likely to improve.
3/1
5/2
3/1
3/1
3/1
3/1
3/1
11/4
11/4
3/1
11/4
3/1
SP
3/1
11/4
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BF
Comment: Promising sort. Second of 7 in maiden at Southwell (7.1f, evens). Off 6 months. Should improve and has to be taken seriously.
7/2
10/3
7/2
3/1
7/2
7/2
10/3
7/2
10/3
7/2
10/3
7/2
SP
7/2
7/2
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BF
Comment: Twice-raced maiden. Sixth of 9 in minor event at Doncaster (6f, good to firm, 5/6) 13 days ago. One to consider.
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
4/1
SP
4/1
4/1
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Comment: Twice-raced maiden. 9/2, fourth of 8 in maiden at Wolverhampton (7.2f) 38 days ago. Open to progress.
15/2
8/1
17/2
17/2
15/2
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/1
8/1
SP
8/1
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Comment: €70,000 yearling, Dandy Man gelding. Half-brother to several winners, including useful North American 1m/9f winner Elizabeth Way and 1¼m winner Jameel. One to note in the market.
20/1
20/1
22/1
22/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
20/1
SP
20/1
20/1
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Comment: Mukhadram filly. Half-sister to 2m winner Lightning Steps and 1m winner Lexikon. Dam, useful French 10.5f winner, half-sister to useful winner up to 8.2f Nova Step. One to note in the market.
20/1
40/1
28/1
28/1
20/1
28/1
28/1
28/1
28/1
28/1
28/1
25/1
SP
33/1
33/1
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Comment: Once-raced maiden. 50/1, eighth of 9 in maiden at Kempton (7f) on debut 27 days ago. Easy to look elsewhere.
100/1
100/1
125/1
125/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
80/1
SP
99/1
100/1
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4
(3)
00-
9-2
3
-
150/1
Comment: Twice-raced maiden. 28/1, eleventh of 14 in maiden at Nottingham (5f, good to firm). Off 7 months. Significantly up in trip. First run for yard after leaving George Margarson. Has been gelded.
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
80/1
SP
149/1
150/1
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Comment: Twice-raced maiden. 200/1, eleventh of 12 in minor event at Kempton (7f) 22 days ago. Best watched.
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
80/1
149/1
SP
150/1
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2
(11)
9-7
v
10-0
6
-
250/1
Comment: Twice-raced maiden. 200/1 and visored for 1st time, seventh of 8 in maiden at this C&D 30 days ago. Difficult to make a case for.
100/1
250/1
150/1
150/1
100/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
150/1
80/1
SP
149/1
150/1
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N/A

VERDICT
1st
3
Red Mirage (IRE)
13/8
2nd
9
Jebel Dukhan (IRE)
7/2
3rd
1
Tomouh (IRE)
3/1
RED MIRAGE won his only start last year and he should be able to start his 3-y-o season perfectly here given he is a likely improver. Jebel Dukhan ran well at Southwell on his previous start and rates as the main danger. Tomouh can't be discounted either in a fairly open looking novice event.
SMART STATS
£57.50
2 Karalius
Martin Bosley's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting
250/1
£18.09
5 Credence Star
Simon & Ed Crisford's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting
4/1
25%
1 Tomouh
Saeed bin Suroor's strike rate at CHELMSFORD CITY since the start of the 2017 season
3/1
RACE HINTS
Pace Forecast
Insufficient Data
Draw Bias
N/A
Individual Price Hint: Jebel Dukhan traded at 25% or less of BSP twice on its last 2 starts: Karalius has traded at 50% or less of BSP twice on its last 2 starts.
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Horses for courses (positive)
Horses for courses (negative)
Warning horse
Trainer first time headgear
Trainer in form
Trainer out of form
Trainer/Jockey Uplift
Trainer returning from a break
Trainer handicap debutant
Horse in focus
Sectional timing
Sire course strike rate
Sire distance strike rate
Sire going strike rate
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