Who wins the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday? Watch galloping clues, interviews, expert analysis and racecourse gallops after Thursday's declarations and get Will Hayler’s big-race verdict.
By Will Hayler
Gustav Klimt
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. General odds: 5-2.
haydock-park
16:00 Haydock-Park - Thursday July 6
Having missed the rest of the season after taking the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, he showed no ill-effects when ultimately scoring with some ease on return at Leopardstown, getting the better of a useful race-fit rival.
It’s not hard to crab the worth of his HQ win, with those in behind hardly advertising the form (and the fourth horse, Godolphin’s Zaman, finishing some way further adrift of Expert Eye on his next start), but he impressed with his resolution after suffering interference and appears the clear number one contender for trainer who tends to have his team more ready than most for the first weekend in May.
The most off-putting aspect is his price.
Masar
Trainer: Charlie Appleby. General odds: 5-1
Possible to find excuses for the three runs before his latest Craven Stakes appearance and those prepared to take a forgiving view were rewarded with a devastating display.
Roaring Lion clearly didn’t live up to expectations there but it wasn’t a weak race and Masar could not have impressed more in the way he handled the track and ate up the ground all the way to the line.
That was a big run and he’s no certainty to build upon it, but he is clearly in the form of his life and it may just be that a straight course and good going bring out the best of him.
No surprise at all that he has attracted ante-post attention ever since initial 8-1 and 7-1 quotes were offered after his Craven win.
Saxon Warrior
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. General odds: 5-1.
Saxon Warrior was unbeaten as a juvenile (PA)
Appealing second-string from the O’Brien team and would by no means be the first horse to prove the betting market wrong when Ballydoyle are multiply represented.
Stuck his neck out to play his part in trainer’s remarkable 2017 campaign with Group One victory in Racing Post Trophy, but his previous Beresford Stakes success sounds a particularly loud note of caution here given the types of horse O’Brien has won that race with before (his 17 winners being almost exclusively middle-distance performers at three and those who did run in the Guineas finding the test too sharp).
Described as “massive” by his trainer after a good winter and may well be staying on too late here.
Elarqam
Trainer: Mark Johnson. General odds: 6-1
Interesting to note trainer Mark Johnson’s comments last week that he might have preferred to have got another run into this colt last season, but for being overruled by his owner, and clear that it will take a good performance to win this on only his third racecourse appearance.
May in time prove the best of these, possibly over 10 furlongs given the way he galloped clear for second success last year, but given his lack of experience looks opposable at the odds despite his awesome pedigree.
Expert Eye
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute. General odds: 8-1.
Trainer usually keeps his own counsel but made some unusually bullish comments after impressive victory at Glorious Goodwood last season, only for this colt to blow out completely in Dewhurst Stakes (said to have been lame afterwards).
Clearly has his fragilities and has been receiving the expert attention of Gary and Craig Witheford at the starting stalls, but did seem less rattled at the start at Newbury last time when second to James Garfield (easy to back) on reappearance.
May not be quite the winning machine he looked at Goodwood, but there were definite positive signs to be taken from that race and Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore seemed quite pleased with the way he was staying on at the finish. Not safe to rule him out here.
Roaring Lion
Trainer: John Gosden. General odds: 16-1.
Strong traveller who lost his unbeaten record narrowly when going down to Saxon Warrior in Racing Post Trophy, looking as if the mile might just have stretched him as a juvenile.
Understandably strong in the betting for return to action in Craven Stakes, but didn’t overly impress in the paddock and just a chance he might be his own worst enemy temperamentally, although admittedly equally possible the race could bring him on considerably.
On balance, he must be opposable now given the huge margin he now has to make up on Masar.
James Garfield
Trainer: George Scott. General odds: 20-1.
Likeable colt with a plucky attitude and produced a typically professional performance to score first time out in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury.
Trainer believes he has come on from that outing and clear formbook claims given the high quality of recent winners of that race.
However, not easy to have doubts as to whether he will see out the extra furlong in the Guineas given the way even seven furlongs seemed to just stretch him as a juvenile. Others preferred.
Headway
Trainer: William Haggas. General odds: 25-1.
Headway flew home to win at Lingfield (Racingfotos)
Smart performer at two, just missing out in Coventry Stakes to Rajasinghe, but wasn’t seen again after finishing solid third in Gimcrack Stakes.
Didn’t look the obvious type to go on as a three-year-old this year, but came from an impossible-looking position to win on all-weather at Lingfield in March and understandable that connections are keen to roll the dice here. He probably won’t be good enough.
Tip Two Win
Trainer: Roger Teal. General odds: 33-1.
Tip Two Win has already paid his way (PA)
Flourished out in Qatar in the winter, bagging a couple of big prizes for connections and thoroughly deserving this somewhat ambitious tilt at Classic dreams. Won’t come last. Won’t win.
Murillo
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. General odds: 66-1.
Held in some regard at two, only narrowly going down in the Coventry Stakes and then presumably not quite right when sent off favourite for Railway Stakes.
Off the course since, but been mentioned as a likely starter for this for weeks by his trainer and looked to have physical scope to improve at three when seen last year. By no means a no-hoper.
Raid
Trainer: David Simcock. General odds: 50-1.
Spotted making some late gains down the middle and away from the big boys when fourth in the Greenham and that was a definite step up on his debut form.
Of all of the runners coming out of that contest, he looks the most assured of appreciating this extra furlong and probably won’t be disgraced as he flies the flag for the race sponsor.
Rajasinghe
Trainer: Richard Spencer. General odds: 50-1.
Didn’t look much fluke to his speedy success in Coventry Stakes last season, but things went off the boil afterwards and starts the new year with plenty to prove.
Connections optimistic for a good showing but act of considerable faith required.
Nebo
Trainer: Charlie Hills. General odds: 66-1.
Gained the pattern-race success his consistency deserved last season, but effort flattened out having travelled well enough in Free Handicap on first start this season and looks more of a future sprinter.
Still, you can’t blame them for trying.
Cardsharp
Trainer: Mark Johnston. General odds: 100-1.
Improbable stayer. Unfathomable winner.
Verdict: Gustav Klimt brings less to the table in terms of existing form than other Aidan O’Brien-trained contenders have done at similar prices in the past, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. I couldn’t consider him at the odds, though, and I’m instead going to take a chance on Expert Eye, who ran well enough in the Greenham at a time when Sir Michael Stoute couldn’t buy a winner. If his outstanding trainer considers him still worth a tilt at the Guineas despite two defeats, that’s good enough for me.
1 Expert Eye 2 Masar 3 Gustav Klimt.