Tony Calvin's top tips for Monday: Courtinthemiddle can stage repeat at 16-1

The way I approach tipping is to go through all the cards on the day in question and make a list of about ten or so who interest me.

I have in my head a price about what I feel is acceptable about each one, so when the odds begin to filter out about 5pm on Sunday afternoon, then I begin to trim back the possibles, cull, and start the hasty rewrites.

I am sure there are more time-effective ways of operating and maybe some prefer to wait until all the prices appear before embarking on their study – or indeed, some simply write their copy before the odds are known and hope for the best, sometimes out of necessity if you are a paper journalist - but I simply don’t think that is possible with four cards to go through.

In fact, researching three cards, in any depth, for any given day is pushing it massively, so I had to look at Wolverhampton’s card on Saturday, for example.

Yes, I am really interesting and popular in my house at weekends as a consequence.

Anyway, enough of the strategy and waffle, let’s get to the end product.

I toyed with Roll The Dough off a plummeting mark in the 3.05 at Kempton and after a wind op but Bet365’s 7-1 soon disappeared and another to fall by the betting wayside late on was 33-1 chance Agincourt Reef in the 3.15 at Wincanton (though I will probably end up chucking a score on him myself on Betfair), but my first bet of the day is Follow The Bear.

The case for him is pretty obvious. He clearly did not handle the heavy going when we last saw him at Bangor in January but he has had a break since, presumably waiting for this better ground.

He has run his best races when fresh, so that is a big positive, and he could take a fair bit of beating if returning to the form of his course-and-distance good-ground defeat of Criq Rock in May.

He carries a 7lb penalty for that victory, and there are a few in here who are serious form rivals, but I like his chances at the general 4-1. Hopefully, the rain that was around in the area on Sunday wasn't too bad, as soft ground would be an obvious negative. Keep an eye out on that front.

I liked the claims of Ifandbutwhynot before I clocked that he won this race last year on good to soft ground, and he did so by 9 lengths off just a 2lb lower mark than this.

This is a competitive race but he treads a similar path as to when taking this prize last season.

He was having his first start since December when a good second at Carlisle last month – the third has finished a decent runner-up since – and that will hopefully have put him cherry ripe for this.

He could well get his own way out in front here, with Rock On Rocky perhaps the sole possible pace rival (though he was held up when winning last time), and everything looks in place for a bold bid.

I toyed with tipping Project Mars at around 20-1 in the 5.20 purely down to the fact that Nick Gifford has put first-time blinkers on him.

Gifford is three from 14 with this option since 2006 – the winners were 11-1, 16-1, and 11-2 – and he has also had three seconds (at 6-1, 8-1 and 12-1) and two thirds (at 100-3 and 7-1).

On those impressive stats alone Project Mars, creeping down the weights and back on better ground, is an each-way play at a price.

But I slightly prefer the punting claims of Courtinthemiddle in the 5.50 at a similar price. The opening 20-1 across the board has gone, so back him at the general 16-1

He is already back on the same mark as when winning this race by three lengths last year – carrying on the Ludlow theme above - even though he has only raced twice since.

He ran badly on his reappearance at Chepstow last month but that was on heavy going and he will hopefully be a different proposition back on better ground – it was good when he won last season – and with that run under his belt. He was also dropped 3lb for it.

His small stable had a winner on that Chepstow card, and he is worth chancing here.

One of the horses that failed to make my final four was 10-1 chance Tasaaboq in the 5.15.

So while he isn’t being put up as a bet here, I wrote the case for him and so may as well share it.

Being drawn 11 of 12 is not ideal, but he ran well off this mark when beaten just 2 lengths over 6f at Chelmsford last time, and the cheekpieces that he wore are left off here.

But he has run well without them before and the return to 7f and this track are positives.

Some of his better efforts have come around here and the horse is effective from 5f to a mile, so I like the idea of him stepping up in trip. He will be coming late.

Anyway, on to the bet at Wolverhampton.

There are a few negatives surrounding Mr Frankie into the 6.45, not least the fact that the trainer has not had a winner since May, but I quite like his chances all the same. In fact, he is very interesting indeed.

To concentrate on the plus points, he has not been running too badly of late – indeed, he shaped eye-catchingly well when a staying-on seventh over a mile at Lingfield last time, not being given a hard time of it all from off the pace on the outside (go and take a look at the race) – and he has been slipping down the weights as well.

And, as a result, he runs in a 0-50 handicap for just the second time.

And he won here in October 2016 on the first occasion.

That win came over an extended 1m1f but he shows this trip holds no fears when just touched off by a nose over course and distance last September, and he can race off a 9lb lower mark here.

Connections put cheekpieces on him for only the fourth time here – he has not worn them since that win – and his form figures in that headgear read 261, only being beaten a neck when runner-up here in them in 2015.

The more I looked into his form, the keener I got. The 7-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power has gone, but the 5-1 with bet365 is just about acceptable as he could easily go off favourite.

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