So the Nunthorpe threw up a 40-1 surprise on this day last week. Horses for courses, particularly at York, was never more in evidence.
That track, and a wonderful track it is, can really cause a shock or two. Sandown hosts the pick of the action this Friday and two go up from there but Hamilton hosts an excellent card, including the Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell, and is well worth getting involved in.
This horse was in my tracker over the winter and I backed him at what looked a big price in the Classic Trial here in April.
He did not seem to see it out that day - as well as not being good enough - and he was undoubtedly disappointing last time back in novice company.
Charlie Hills’s horses were under a cloud at that time, though, and the trainer admits plenty were not seeing their races out. He’s a course winner who could be very well treated for handicap debut and I’d be excited he’d go very well today at 9-2.
You can make a case for plenty in this, particularly the top three in the betting, but I’m surprised Extra Large is as big as 13-2.
Winning on handicap debut at Kempton, he shaped as if the step up to ten furlongs was wanted and I thought the 5lb hike was a fair rise as he was good value for the win.
He will have to stay because they’ll not hang around here but I fancy he will show he is ahead of his mark.
I can see why Zeelander heads the betting but this will be an easier surface than he’s been running well on of late and that’s a plus for Jabbaar at 10-1.
Twice second here earlier this year, a decent pace over the trip is what he needs and the juice in the ground should ensure it’s a test.
He’s a horse that needs the field to come back to him, so being held up at Chester on his last couple of goes - for all he’s won there - has not played to his strengths.
Archi’s Affaire is a big price, too, but he’s not the best drawn.
Would not be the obvious winner given he’s yet to get his head in front but he’s definitely got a race in him if things fall right.
A beaten favourite on handicap debut where he was probably ridden a tough aggressively, he then looked short of speed when beaten at Yarmouth back slightly in trip.
I can see why connections then went up in trip and he was not beaten far at Nottingham but a strong pace, which looks likely, back at a mile and a half looks ideal.
I hope the excellent Callum Rodriguez is patient with him in first time cheekpieces as this could be his race at 15-2.
Tom's top tips:
Select any odd to add a bet