Tom Stanley's Friday tips: zero in on big prices now the softer ground is here

By Tom Stanley
Fri 17 Aug 2018

Tom Stanley is showing a £10.08 profit based on £1 level stake since May 1, from 53 tips and struck with Cliffs Of Dover at 11-4 last Friday.

The weather is not making life easy at the moment, given its unpredictability.

That said, I expect Newbury and Newmarket to race on ground the easy side of good. Newbury had nearly 14mm of rain on Thursday and is good/good to soft in places, while Newmarket posted at 6.47am on Friday that they are set to run on good to soft, good (in places).

There are a few horses this weekend that have been waiting for easier ground and hopefully that can be taken advantage of – look out for them.

1.30 Nottingham – Camber at a generally available 8-1:

I would not normally have a bet in this type of race but on Thursday night I was taken with the price about Camber at 6-1, so the 8-1 this morning is quite lovely.

Odds-on favourite Qutob could well prove tough to beat for the in-form Charlie Hills yard and he holds a raft of fancy entries, including the Group One Middle Park, but I thought Richard Fahey’s horse shaped with bags of promise on debut at Redcar in behind horses with experience. See above.

He may not be good enough to beat the favourite but that horse's price hinges on reputation as much as it does what he’s shown on the track and I think Camber will come on a bundle for his first run.

3.30 Newbury - Come On Leicester at a generally available 8-1:

This daughter of Kodiac is a a bigger price than I thought she would be at 8-1.

She looks well drawn in stall four. We have seen repeatedly here this season that middle to far side is where you want to be and, for all this filly has mounting excuses, she is worth another go at the price.

She was not the best drawn when fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot but that is strong form and her disappointing effort at Windsor does not look so bad now the winner has followed up in Listed company.

I do not know if the ground is a negative as her win came on good to firm but it did also come under the returning jockey Ryan Moore.

Six furlongs did not suit last time, nor was she good enough, but this is a good deal easier.

5.55 Newmarket - Russian Realm at a generally available 12-1:

I think this has the right horse at the head of the market in the form of Equitation and he will be a tough nut to crack, but there are a couple in here at interesting prices if bouncing back to form.

Two of those are Mont Kiara and Mulliuonheir but they are risky propositions, if very tempting.

My main play in the race will be Russian Realm, who found the ground a bit quick at Hamilton when ninth of ten last time but was in fine form prior to that when chasing home subsequent scorer Aces at Epsom.

He was unlucky not to finish closer that day too for all he was beaten by the better horse. He had previously won the race on his side at Ripon and I think he is well drawn today near the stands rail, which can be preferential at the July course.

I would like more pace on for him but he can go well at a double-figure price

8.05 Newmarket - Mazyoun at a generally available 16-1:

This horse is a massive price at 16-1. Really.

Lightly raced this year, he was a winner on easy ground at Yarmouth under James Doyle, who rides again, before finding trouble behind Fire Brigade at the back end of last season (albeit not when in a winning position).

Now 4lb lower, he was drawn out of things at Chester and did not get the best of runs over seven furlongs at Goodwood last time in strong company.

The return to a mile will suit, I like his draw and the ground is in his favour on just his fourth start of the season.

Tom Stanley's Friday best bets:

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