Tips for Friday: Cazoo Oaks guide and predicted finishing order

Tips for Friday: Cazoo Oaks guide and predicted finishing order

By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien have between them been responsible for the past eight winners of the Cazoo Oaks and the odds again seem loaded in their favour at Epsom on Friday.
Gosden is responsible for the top two in the betting, Emily Upjohn and Nashwa, while O’Brien has four challengers in Tuesday, Concert Hall, Thoughts Of June and The Algarve. The sextet feature among a final field of 11.
It looks a deep renewal but Emily Upjohn looks the right favourite. However, whether there should be quite the gap in the market between herself and Nashwa is debatable as latter has also looked most exciting and, at the odds on offer, makes the most appeal.
Take a look at the leading contenders
Concert Hall seems certain to improve for moving up in trip and may be the pick of the O’Brien runners.
The ground at Epsom was on Wednesday described as good to soft, soft in places but 48 hours of dry, sunny weather is forecast with temperatures rising. I’d expect goodish ground by race time.
Here’s a guide to them all and a predicted finishing order.

1 NASHWA

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden. Timeform rating: 123P. Best odds: 9-2
I can't fault her, Hollie Doyle tells Nick Luck. The jockey is seeking to become the first female jockey to win a British Classic
Was too green to do herself justice on her sole start last year but has looked a tremendously exciting prospect this year. Made short work of eight rivals on her return over a mile at Haydock and then swept from last to first over 1m 2f in Listed company at Newbury last time. This longer trip in deeper company asks a new question given the speed she has shown, but she’s by Frankel out of a dam whose two other offspring include Louganini, a useful 1m 4f performer on soft ground.

2 EMILY UPJOHN

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden. Timeform rating: 125p. Best odds: 6-5
The Verdict: Angus McNae studies Emily Upjohn's Musidora victory
Unbeaten in three starts and has dominated the betting since surging clear in the closing stages of the 1m 2f Musidora Stakes at York last month. It looked a case of the further the better, as it did on her previous start over the same trip when she routed her rivals in a minor event at Sandown when carrying a 7lb penalty. Had a spin at Epsom recently and should be even better to come over 1m4f given the evidence of her runs and breeding; she’s a daughter of Sea Of The Stars and her dam is a half-sister to Harzand.

3 CONCERT HALL

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 118. Best odds: 9-1
Watch a full replay of the Irish 1000 Guineas. Tuesday was second and Concert Hall was third
She’s had her limits exposed over a mile, including last time when a keeping-on third in the Irish 1000 Guineas but has been crying out for this stiffer test, hardly surprising given her dam, Was (by Galileo), won the Oaks a decade ago. Plenty of experience to call upon and represents a trainer seeking a tenth success in this race, and sixth since 2015.

4 THOUGHTS OF JUNE

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 118p. Best odds: 20-1
Thoughts Of June and Ryan Moore (red and black cap) win the Cheshire Oaks (focusonracing.com)
The grey daughter of Galileo was beaten in her first three races but upped her game when making all in the Cheshire Oaks last time, repelling Above The Curve (subsequent Group One winner) in game style by a neck. She got the run of the race at Chester, on soft ground, but this is clearly her trip and there could be more to come.

5 TUESDAY

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 120p. Best odds: 10-1
Aidan O'Brien told Gary O'Brien more about Tuesday after her comeback win
She’s a sister of the outstanding Minding (winner of the 1000 Guineas and Oaks in 2016) and has quickly developed into a class act herself, finishing third in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before beating all bar the impressive Homeless Songs in the Irish version at The Curragh, with Concert Hall half a length behind. A big player if getting the trip but that’s not guaranteed as several of her other siblings have been milers, while Minding herself never again ran over 1m 4f and had reverted to a mile by the end of the year.

6 KAWIDA

Trainer: Ed Walker. Timeform rating: 110. Best odds: 66-1

newmarket

14:58 Newmarket - Saturday October 30
Kawida has With The Moonlight behind when winning at Newmarket
Progressed well last year, signing off her season with a determined victory in the Listed Montrose Stakes over a mile at Newmarket, when she had With The Moonlight back in third. Shaped well over an extended 1m2f on her return at Saint-Cloud (the winner has subsequently gone close in Group One company) and no surprise if she takes another jump forward, with the trip likely to be within her reach. No surprise if she outuns her odds.

7 WITH THE MOONLIGHT

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Timeform rating: 121p. Best odds: 10-1
Charlie Appleby tells Chris Dixon more about With The Moonlight
Both her wins as a two-year-old were on the all-weather and she was beaten fair and square behind Kawida at Newmarket in the autumn. Was an emphatic winner of the Pretty Polly back at Headquarters on her return although the runner-up, a maiden who went off at 50-1, did little for the form when subsequently beaten an even wider distance in a five-runner maiden at Bath.

8 TRANQUIL LADY

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien. Timeform rating: 115. Best odds: 14-1
Tom Marquand discusses his Classic rides this weekend - including Tranquil Lady on Friday
The Australia filly is a half-sister to the stable’s triple Group One winner State Of Rest and booked her place in this with an emphatic win in the Blue Wind Stakes over 1m 2f at Naas last time. However, she had previously finished fourth to Concert Hall at Navan (beaten about four lengths) and that horse also looks open to the greater improvement over this trip.

9 MOON DE VEGA

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Timeform rating: 115p. Best odds: 33-1
Looked a work in progress last year, getting off the mark at the third attempt over a mile at Doncaster. She’s got a middle-distance pedigree and ran much better than the bare form suggests when fourth to Thoughts Of June (beaten about six lengths) in the Cheshire Oaks as she was halted in her tracks three out. Trainer knows what it takes to win this race, having landed it twice.

10 ROGUE MILLENNIUM

Trainer: Tom Clover. Timeform rating: 111p. Best odds: 22-1
Enjoy a day at the races on us! Find out more about Racing TV Club Days.
Unraced at two for Marcus Tregoning but the Shadwell cast-off, sold for 35,000gns in November, is making up for lost time for her new connections and has been supplemented. She won a minor event on her debut at Wetherby before edging home in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield. No stamina reservations but plenty more required as the runner-up at Lingfield had previously won a handicap off 84, while the third has since been well-beaten at Goodwood.

11 THE ALGARVE

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 103p. Best odds: 100-1
Flashback: watch last year's Oaks
She’s bred for the job, being by American Pharoah out of 2001 Oaks winner Imagine, but it took her three attempts to get off the mark last year – losing her maiden tag on heavy ground at Galway – and she took a walk in the market before finishing a well-held fourth to Emily Upjohn in the Musidora. She was in trouble some way out at York and others are much easier to enthuse about.
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