The Verdict: Royal Champion "a group horse in a handicap"

The Verdict: Royal Champion "a group horse in a handicap"

By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Watch and read more from Angus McNae who shares his expert insight and analysis as he dissects the key races at Epsom last week, including the Cazoo Oaks and Derby, in The Verdict.
The Cazoo Oaks and Derby took centre stage on Racing TV last week, and both produced worthy winners, but I want to make a general point before I put those races under the microscope.
With the recent abandonments due to horses slipping on the bends at various racecourses, I think it would be remiss not to believe that this factor would have been in the back of the jockeys’ minds at Epsom.
The Verdict: Watch the full show with Angus McNae on our YouTube page above
As it happened, there were no such problems on the Downs and the track rode as well as it always does. However, I believe that the effect of having this concern in the mind of jockeys lead to the three Group One races, that had to negotiate Tattenham corner, being slowly run.
This is backed up by the Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) of each race, and it is worth remembering that an evenly run race should produce a FSP of around 100 per cent.
Anything well above 100 suggests the contest was a steadily run race, with a fast finish. It should also be taken into consideration that there is a steep uphill from the start at Epsom, which can lead to slightly bigger FSP numbers than you would expect.
Coronation Cup: 114.48%
Cazoo Oaks: 119.20%
Cazoo Derby : 111.89%
All three of the above Group Ones were steadily run, with the pace only increasing once in the home straight, but this is merely an observation, and not a comment on the quality of horse on show.

CORONATION CUP

Hukum defeated Pyledriver and High Definition in a messy affair, and I say messy because the pace of the race was an uneven tempo.
William Buick looked to dictate the pace here and dawdled to the front once the stalls opened before Frankie Dettori rushed Pyledriver into the lead and increased the tempo.
However, after a brief injection of pace, he slowed the pace right down again and recorded a pedestrian first four furlongs of 57.91s.
Jim Crowley moved Hukum up to track Pyledriver before the top of the hill and was clearly aware of the steady gallop. After they sauntered downhill, the pace then really picked up and essentially turned this Group One into a four-furlong sprint.
Coursetrack sectionals highlighted this sharp increase in tempo:
Hukum’s final three furlongs were completed in 33.82s, which is quick and a function of him saving energy early on in the contest. Of the vanquished, I think Manobo, Pyledriver and High Definition all need more of a test of stamina but, on this occasion, Hukum was just too fast for them.
Sadly, Hukum was found to have sustained a hind leg injury during the race and had to undergo surgery. He may be seen back on a racecourse, but the breeding sheds probably await.

CAZOO OAKS

The Cazoo Oaks was even more slowly run than the Coronation Cup and produced a faster finish. Tuesday received a superb ride from Ryan Moore, while Emily Upjohn lost ground at the start before suffering a wide trip and was unlucky.
I believe the winner and the second are both better than the bare result here given the slow early pace, allied to the fact that they were both at a positional disadvantage being held-up. They both may improve significantly in a race run at an even tempo, too.
The Coursetrack figures are interesting as, rather like the Coronation Cup, this race was run steadily with a sharp injection of pace four furlongs out. Tuesday completed the final three furlongs in a rapid 32.78s, which was quicker than Hukum who clocked 33.82s.
The fact Emily Upjohn was hindered by her tardy start, and wide trip, is highlighted by her finishing splits which were quicker than Tuesday, but she had left herself too much to do.
1st) Tuesday - Last 3F: 32.87s
2nd) Emily Upjohn - Last 3F: 32.52s
A rematch between the two will be fascinating, and Tuesday should not be underestimated as she still has physical improvement to make as she was a late foal.

CAZOO DERBY

The Cazoo Derby was a stronger run race than the Coronation Cup and Cazoo Oaks, while the pace was more even than the Coronation Cup, and quicker than the Oaks.
Desert Crown got a lovely trip under Richard Kingscote who asked him to quicken between the three and two furlong pole, and he responded instantly with an 11.27s furlong.
This sharp turn of foot destroyed his rivals, and he was able to follow that up with a furlong of 11.41s.
Kingscote took his foot off the gas in the final furlong, with Desert Crown firing only the third-fastest split. The fastest belonged to Westover who met plenty of trouble and didn’t really find his stride until the final furlong where he came home strongly in a time of 11.74s, the fastest final furlong in the race. He looks to be a strong stayer.
Nahanni is a horse who should receive a sectional upgrade as he was slowly away and held up, which was not ideal given the run of the race, but he made a big mid-race move to try and get into contention before his effort petered out. The following Coursetrack sectionals detail the move that he made.
F9: Nahanni - 11.26s (Fastest in the race through this furlong).
The Godolphin-owned colt is entered in the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot a week on Friday.

TWO HORSES TO FOLLOW

I believe we saw a group horse winning a handicap when Royal Champion destroyed his rivals in the Cazoo Handicap at Epsom on Friday, his first start since being gelded and returning from an absence. He was wildly impressive and this lightly-raced four-year-old is open to loads of improvement.
According to the Coursetrack sectionals, he quickened up well to win by almost three lengths, without being put under maximum pressure by Andrea Atzeni, and two sub-11.00s furlongs shot him to the front.
This surge was too much for his rivals, most notably Soto Sizzler who was at something of a disadvantage trying to come from last place, and Good Birthday, who is an interesting horse going forward.
Andrew Balding's six-year-old was the only other horse in the race to fire two sub-11.00s furlongs and was faster than the winner through the eighth and ninth furlong, but he could not finish his race off as well as Royal Champion thereafter. A drop back to a mile may suit him.
This is strong handicap form, and the winner is entered in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot next week. The pair also hold an entry in the John Smith’s Cup.
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