The Verdict Extra: Angus McNae has a 20/1 tip for the 1000 Guineas

The Verdict on Monday night focused on several horses who will have a say at high profile meetings this summer. You can enjoy the show by clicking above. 

In terms of a wager, I reckon the victory of Kyprios at Navan should have seen him shorten to a shade of odds-on for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. 

The 2/1 that is currently on offer is good value given that he is highly likely to be odds against come the day.  

I have identified three races of interest for further analysis, starting with data that points to a 20/1 winner of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.  

The Charlie Appleby-trained Cinderallas Story appeals at 20/1 for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.

She is unbeaten in four starts, winning her last two at Meydan this year. Her latest success in the Jumeirah 1000 Guineas identifies her as being very talented and was a memorable performance for several reasons. 

The first three furlongs of the mile contest were steadily run. The early sectionals were recorded at 13.29sec, 14.45sec and 12.22sec. The slow pace meant that Cinderellas Dream was too keen under William Buick and in trying to settle her his saddle slipped forward, and he was forced to kick his feet out of his irons. 

Thereafter survival rather than victory was probably uppermost in his mind. To this effect he took her wide and let her stride on - a move that would hardly be race-winning in normal circumstances. What happened thereafter was remarkable. Despite not being able to give his filly maximum assistance she quickened sharply in the final two furlongs, with her final split recorded as being 21.46sec. 

This was a faster split than she recorded on her previous start in the Jumeirah Fillies Classic, where she recorded a final two furlongs of 22.04sec. 

Given the extraordinary circumstances, her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 113.72% was quite something. It meant she was 13.72% quicker in the final two furlongs than she was in the previous six - testament to her raw ability. Plaudits must go to Buick for his horsemanship, but above all it must be recognised that this is a very talented filly whose ability to quicken has been the hallmark of her past two performances. It is not inconceivable that she could follow in the footsteps of Mawj, who won this race en route to Guineas glory. 

This filly, trained by Team Gosden, was having her third career start and her first onturf. 

She bolted up by 12 lengths and is as short as 16/1 with some firms for the Betfred Oaks at Epspm on May 31. 

She is clearly a talented filly with potential, but the RaceiQ data suggests that this performance in isolation was not one that marks her out as being a viable Oaks candidate. She will be better judged once she has taken in a trial. 

The ground was very testing at Wetherby and her final time for this ten-furlong trip was slow at 2min 17.73sec. This time was in part a function ofconditions and the steady early gallop. 

In effect, the pace did not pick up until three furlongs out, where the winner took the lead and recorded the following splits giving her a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 110.12%. This was achieved by her sustaining a gallop rather than quickening: Furlong 8: 12.10sec. Furlong  9: 12.11s Furlong 10: 13.32sec. 

These are unremarkable as stand-alone figures but should be seen in the context of the conditions, which were demanding. She handled those conditions better than her toiling rivals. Her final three furlongs of 37.52sec was 2.58sec faster than her nearest pursuer. 

The data suggests that she is a strong stayer in accordance with her pedigree and the conditions brought out the best in her. She was readily outpaced in a slowly run race on her previous start at Chelmsford and any chance she has of winning the Oaks should now be predicated on the ground being very soft on the day.  

This is a horse for your Racing TV tracker. He finished fifth in this handicap off a markof 75, while being set plenty to do in a race that was run at an even gallop. The first three all raced close to the pace.  

The RaceiQ data shows us that from a poor position at the rear of the field he completedthe final three furlongs faster than the winner. He came home in 36.96seccompared to the winner, Fiver Friday, who clocked 37.20sec. He didn’t win because entering those final three furlongs he was in 13th place, whereas Fiver Friday was in second. 

Fiver Friday recorded his fastest furlong through furlong eight, where he clocked 11.88sec, compared to Soowaih who through the same furlong stopped the clock at 11.77sec. 

That speed would have been much more potent if he had been better placed in a race not run to suit horses trying to make up ground from the rear. He does not have any near-to-hand entries.