The Tote's Kevin O'Malley nominates a couple of outsiders who it might pay to take an interest in at Goodwood this afternoon.
The first week of British racing passed by fairly quietly, but halfway through the month and the volume of action now coming our way is a proper attack on the senses.
When you bet on outsiders with the Tote, you’ll often get a bigger payout than the industry starting price and we’ve already seen lots of great examples of overpays. Where the Tote pays less, the Tote Guarantee means you’ll never be paid less than the SP.
Goodwood stages an eight-race card on Monday. The first handicap is a Class 5 affair over six furlongs and I’m hopeful there could be an outsider here that could pop up with a big run. There is nothing terribly intimidating about the three or four horses likely to head the market here and the one I’m keen to take a chance on is John Gallagher’s QUENCH DOLLY.
This six-year-old mare doesn’t win very often, which is a problem. However, her sights have been significantly lowered in recent times. Having contested off marks in the mid 90s through 2017 and 2018, her overall form tailed off last season. Quench Dolly needs to improve her game, but her mark has fallen by a further 12lb from 80 to just 68 in her last four starts since October.
Her latest outing in February was her first after a wind operation and she failed to fire. It could have been another career regression alarm bell, but she might be a more confident animal now on her second race since the procedure. Interestingly enough to mention, her record improves to 2/8 (25%) on ground described as “Good to Firm”. She’s visited Goodwood quite a few times too, often in much better contests than this one.
Her best recent effort on form and speed figures came when she finished third at Nottingham two starts back in October. She’d have around 5-6lb to spare from today’s mark if reproducing that effort and all told, it seems perfectly possible she could be underestimated here.
Mark Loughnane’s top weight LEO DAVINCI also makes his second start after a breathing operation. Another whose form tapered off at the end of 2019, he remains fairly lightly raced as a four-year-old and was producing his most potent form at this time last year.
At Redcar in June, he hammered Beryl The Petal - racing off a mark of 71 that day - by over two lengths. The runner-up's rating shot up to 83 soon after following two fluent wins, making Leo Davinci’s perch look very workable here, provided he can recapture that kind of form. He ran at Kempton earlier in the month, went off at 50/1 and ran accordingly. But this immediate drop in both distance and class represents the kind of no-nonsense move punters can applaud and, where a pinch of luck permits, profit from.
Leo Davinci wins at Redcar last June
His mark was dropped from 75 to 72 on the back of that, which doesn’t hinder things and smart apprentice Kevin Lundie now takes off a handy 5lb. Casting the poor opening run aside, there should be few excuses at the weights on this second attempt at a form revival.
The horse may well take another few runs to get going, but opportunities are tricky to come by just now and he’s only got six horses to beat in an ordinary enough race. As such, you wouldn’t bat much of an eyelid if he ran very well.
That's all from me on the Monday front - fingers crossed one or both of the above can stage a bounce back to form. It is always a shot in the dark when building a positive betting profile around out-of-form horses, but it is often the only way to nestle upon a bit of value against the market.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a few dark horses to look at on Day One at Royal Ascot.
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