The Japan Cup: clues, nuggets and Calandagan's mission

"I always want to be competing in the big international races around the world," Ryan Moore said after winning the Japan Cup on  Gentildonna in 2013. "The Japan Cup is like the Dubai World Cup, the Kentucky Derby and the Melbourne Cup -- top international events. And I've always wanted to win this race," he continued. 

The cynical might suggest there’s an element of being polite to your hosts in Moore’s words but the Japan Cup is a huge spectacle.

The record attendance was over 196,000 in 1990 (when the race was won by the Australian challenger Better Loosen Up) and the Japan Cup has regularly attracted attendances of around 100,000 at Tokyo Racecourse which has a capacity of 223,000.

Established in 1981 to improve Japan’s standing on the international racing circuit, there is so much more to the raceday than the race itself with a spread of entertainments and activities to cater to all bar the most curmudgeonly tastes plus, on a clear day, you can see the iconic Mt Fuji from the grandstand.  

An American mare won the inaugural running with the best of the domestic challengers back in fifth.

It was a similar story the following year and internationals won 12 of the first 17 renewals with Sir Michael Stoute lifting the Cup with both Singspiel and Pilsudski.

Since the latter won in 1997 only Falbrav (2002) and Alkaassed (2005) have been successful in a period where the international challenge has waned numerically. Is it because of the wealth of alternative targets, the focus on speed in breeding or because the Japan Cup has become harder to win? 

Last year saw two leading European protagonists in Auguste Rodin and Goliath - along with Fantastic Moon – in a welcome reversal of that trend but they could only finish in midfield as Do Deuce, Shin Emperor and Durezza filled the podium. This year there is only one.  

That one, though, is Calandagan who is the highest rated horse in the world in the Longines rankings; ahead of Ombudsman, stablemate Daryz and the Japanese trained Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Forever Young among others.  

The reformed "bad boy" has evolved into an elite racehorse although he still had his doubters after a sequence of second-placed finishes at the end of last year and start of this.

Two superb performances at Ascot in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and in the QIPCO British Champions Stakes has cemented his position as Europe’s champion but can Calandagan emerge as champion of the world on Sunday?  

Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi commented after Do Deuce’s 2024 win that "we had a miserable experience overseas. This time we were running on a Japanese track and there was no way Do Deuce was going to be defeated. I want everyone all over the world to see that performance and not what we saw in Dubai or France."  

Do Deuce had been tailed off in the Arc and Croix Du Nord suffered a similar fate at ParisLongchamp last month, but he had previously beaten Arc de Triomphe hero Daryz as the two warmed up for the big day in the Group Three Prix du Prince d’Orange.  

The shoe is on the other hoof now with the Japan Cup a home game for Croix Du Nord if he’s given the green light to run for the first time since France; with trainer Takashi Saito also considering next month’s Arima Kinen.

I wonder if the record of three-year-olds in the Japan Cup is a factor with Almond Eye (2018) the last winner to represent the Classic generation?

Ironically, Almond Eye prevented the Triple Crown winner Contrail from following suit two years later (to become only the second dual winner alongside Gentildonna) before Contrail returned as a four-year-old to claim top honours.  

Croix Du Nord beat Masquerade Ball by three quarters of a length in the Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) and the runner-up has since warmed up for the Japan Cup with a significant victory in the all age Tenno Sho (Autumn) - three of the last five Japan Cup winners did the double - showing an impressive turn of foot to extricate himself from trouble and pick up the leaders to win narrowly in a bunched finish.  

Christophe Lemaire, who was winning a Group One for the third successive weekend, said: “He was amazing. While with good potential, he was probably still green when he was second in the Derby. But he's matured and become stronger coming into the fall season and maybe could go for another Group One this year. If not, he will definitely be among the top horses next season.”  

In the same interview as the top, Moore was asked what races were still on his "to win" list and replied, "there's plenty, unfortunately." Before adding "anyone can win a race once." Moore proved he wasn’t just ‘anyone’ when adding a second Japan Cup with Vela Azul in 2022 but he trails in his tally behind Lemaire. 

Lemaire has enjoyed huge success in Japan, including winning the Japan Cup on four occasions; Vodka got the ball rolling in 2009, Almond Eye struck twice and then Equinox obliged in 2023 to put him alongside Japanese legend Yutake Take as the most successful jockeys in the Japan Cup – but that was before Take took his tally to five aboard Do Deuce last year. Can Lemaire strike back? 

The omens for Croix Du Nord may not be good with 2001 winner Jungle Pocket the last Derby winner to follow-up in the Japan Cup but that’s not to say that Derby winners don’t have a decent record. Twelve months ago Do Deuce became the fifth Classic hero to win the Japan Cup this century and there are three Tokyo Yushun scorers still in contention for Sunday.  

Tastiera won in 2023 but didn’t win again that season, nor in a 2024 campaign which ended with placed efforts behind Do Deuce and, in the Hong Kong Cup, to Romantic Warrior. Tastiera returned to Sha Tin in April to win the QEII Cup (Goliath ninth) before enjoying a break, returning with a slightly disappointing midfield run in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) for all he was beaten under three lengths by Masquerade Ball. 

Danon Decile was last year’s hero and, although he couldn’t back that up in the Japanese St Leger, has gone on to prove himself a class performer.

He failed to run his race when last seen but that was in August in the Juddmonte International where he was almost ten lengths behind Ombudsman and Delacroix. Before that, he, too, had picked up an international Group One when denying Calandagan in the Dubai Sheema Classic and their re-match is an eagerly awaited sub-plot to the 2025 Japan Cup and could well determine the winner.