Andy Stephens crunches the RaceiQ numbers for all the Grade One races at the Grand National meeting, plus read what the trainers and jockeys said.
Brighterdaysahead shone at Aintree for a second time (Healy Racing)
Mange Tout makes freshness count
Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle
The two fillies, Mange Tout and Selma De Vary, came to the fore, in the process paying a compliment to Narciso Has, who had put the pair of them in their place at the Dublin Racing Festival in February.
Mange Tout had skipped the Cheltenham Festival and made her freshness count, with her waiting ride in a well-run race also paying dividends. Nothing in the race managed a Finishing Speed Percentage higher than 99.31%.
The first pair jumped cleanly, with Mange Tout gaining 4.57 lengths, and Selma De Vary grabbing 6.08, but with Indian River (official rating 127) and Wolf Rayet (130) finishing close up in third and fourth, respectively, the form is hard to rate highly.
Maestro Conti and Minella Study had run well when placed in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing ahead of Selma De Vary, but were not in the same form.
What they said (Gordon Elliott): “It was hard not taking her to Cheltenham, because you want as many bullets as you can have, but now Cheltenham's over I’m glad we kept her for here. Just the flatter track would suit her and she’s just got a bit of boot. Jack said she didn’t do a stroke in front, she was very idle. That will be her for the year now - she’s not the biggest girl in the world.”
Lulamba fluffs lines
William Hill Manifesto Novices' Chase
Lulamba was a hot favourite after his third in the Arkle but he had already jumped scruffily before unseating his rider at the tenth fence. Including the error there, he lost 7.57 lengths over his obstacles.
The five-year-old has loads of ability but has not convinced with his leaping all season, with his performances being punctuated by slow jumps and errors. The 2m hurdling division lacks depth and one wonders if there will be a temptation to revert to hurdles next term.
Koktail Divin took advantage of his exit, even if his jumping lacked some of its usual zip. He lost 0.56 lengths in the air and it might have been that his hardish race in the Brown Advisory last time, when he ran out of puff, played a part in that.
His standout effort this term was his 21-length drubbing of Kiss Will at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he got a Jump Index score of 8.9 out of 10 for his jumping. The Ryanair Chase looks his natural Cheltenham target next season.
What they said (Darragh O’Keeffe): “He was a bit idle even when he jumped the second last, which showed he’s still a bit raw. As soon as he heard the other horse coming to him again, I could feel him picking up.”
Jango Baie gained some consolation for his big efforts in the King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup, although we will never know what would have happened had Impaire Et Passe not crashed out at the second last.
Impaire Et Passe was still on the bridle but stood off too far and paid the price after attacking the obstacle at 31.72mph. His jumping metrics had been positive up to that stage, including when travelling at that kind of speed, with his average entry speed being 30.6mph.
He lined up with a stamina question to answer and would have had to keep galloping to take the spoils.
His departure left Jango Baie to come home in isolation, with Protektorat and Pic D’Orhy paddling by this stage. Spillane’s Tower was never travelling and had already pulled up, with the vet reporting he had bled.
The winner had the best Jump Index (8.5 out of 10), gained most lengths (11.57) and recorded the highest speed in the race (33.28mph). Also, despite being eased, his Finishing Speed percentage was 102.2% and the winning time was quicker than Gaelic Warrior 12 months earlier.
The Betfair Chase looks an obvious starting point for him next season.
What they said (Nicky Henderson): “I liked the way he travelled through the race. Today he picked the bridle up properly at the cross fence and coming home. We hadn't seen him do that since his first run at Ascot where he travelled well. He looked a sharper horse today to me than maybe he did even in the King George.”
The Lion tames himself
William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
The second clash between Brighterdaysahead and The New Lion was bubbling up nicely only for the latter to bungle the final flight. That was Game Over for him, with opinions divided as to what would have happened had he jumped it cleanly.
Harry Skelton, the rider of The New Lion, said at the time he thought he would have won, but when interviewed on Racing TV 24 hours later was less certain. The data tells us that Brighterdaysahead benefited by a length and a half, and her winning distance was two and a quarter lengths, with Jack Kennedy suggesting she was idling late on.
Her jumping, as ever, was impeccable. She got an overall score of 9.2 out of 10, making ground at nine of the 11 obstacles. Meanwhile, The New Lion had jumped better than ever until his late lapse, with his efforts meriting a 9.4.
He had gained ground all the way, with his Average Speed Lost at every flight being 1.67mph. No horse lost less on the whole card, and it could have been even better but for that untimely blemish.
This edition was run at an honest tempo, with the FSP of the first four being similar (around the 103% mark). The winning time was about 4sec quicker than Lossiemouth had achieved 12 months earlier.
Will any of this field be winning a Champion Hurdle next year? It’s unlikely.
What they said (Gordon Elliott): “This is probably her trip and she was awesome. She’s a good mare and that’s why she wins over two miles, but I think two and a half is probably her trip. I’d imagine she’s going to go chasing. She was supposed to go this year but she pulled a muscle and that’s why she didn’t. She hasn’t won at Cheltenham but she ran a great race there this year.”
Racing's giddy highs and crushing lows
William Hill Mildmay Novices' Chase
One moment Gold Dancer was giving us a thrilling exhibition, and in the next he was gone. Racing can give us giddy highs but also some crushing lows.
He and Regent’s Stroll had locked horns at the head of affairs jumping superbly. Each were giving a masterclass, between them gaining about 25 lengths, but then came that tragic postscript.
Gold Dancer jumped best of the whole field at ten of the 19 fences and that was typical of him during his eight races over fences over the past year. He was a pleasure to watch.
Sober Glory puts up flat display
ThatPrizeGuy Top Novices' Hurdle
Sober Glory stood out on form after finishing runner-up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the previous month, but he was uneasy in the betting and not in the same form on ground that was riding quicker than the previous day.
He was given quite a conservative front-running ride, not going as hard as at Cheltenham. He took 2min 6.09sec to complete the first mile here, whereas at Cheltenham he had taken 1min 59.52sec.
The tempo in the second half of the contest was quicker but Sober Glory did not offer much resistance when headed, only to rally late on and be second fastest through the final furlong. It can only be assumed that the Cheltenham race, where they ran much quicker than the Champion Hurdle later in the afternoon, left a mark on him.
It was left to Storming George, who came into the race with an official rating 22lb lower than Sober Glory, and Sinnatra, 19lb lower, to fight out the finish. The former saw it out much the strongest, crucially being 0.83sec quicker than the runner-up through the final two furlongs. His jumping is very accomplished, and he got a score of 8.8 here.
Baron Noir finished a place higher than fourth in the Supreme but was tiring in the closing stages. Good luck to the handicapper trying to make sense of what happened.
What they said (Jack Quinlan): “I was flat out all the way round, to be honest. His jumping was immaculate and probably really kept him on the heels of the leaders. Turning in, a few quickened and I thought, ‘Oh, I’ll be third, and that’s a really solid run’. Then I thought, ‘Oh, I might be second here - I’ve just got the Skelton horse [Sinnatra] to pass’, and suddenly you’re taking the whole lot home, and I can’t quite believe it, to be honest. It’s very surreal, but I’m so incredibly proud of the horse and so proud of Neil and his team.”
Dawning digs deep
JCB Melling Chase
The gloves were off from the moment the tapes rose and ended with Grey Dawning and Solness slugging it out up the straight. It was the former who came out on top, digging deep to hold on by a neck.
All bar one of the runners recording their Top Speeds in the first furlong, which is unusual for any race, let alone a Grade One. Solness went off like his tail was on fire and hit 36.17mph, the fastest any horse went over the three days of the meeting.
Given how hard he went, and that he has spent much of his career over 2m, Solness performed wonders not to throw in the towel against a rival dropping back in trip after being a non-staying fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The first two each got a Jump Index score of 8.4, although crucially Grey Dawning gained three extra lengths.
The pace took its toll, with none of the five finishers achieving a Finishing Speed Percentage higher than 96.56%. L’Eau Du Sud and Saint Segal pulled up.
Heart Wood had put up a career best when landing the Ryanair Chase the previous month but everything here was happening a bit quick for him and he never got in a rhythm with his jumping. He lost ground at 13 of the 16 fences, but to his credit plugged on for third.
By contrast, Gidleigh Park excelled in the jumping department, getting an Index score of 9.6 and gaining more than nine lengths up until the final two fences before fading. It’s not easy to assess his best trip.
What they said (Dan Skelton): “He’s been very tenacious. He had a very hard race at Cheltenham; we left a lot in his shop window today, for him to go and be a two-and-a-half miler, put the cheekpiece on just to help him a little bit - we didn’t think he needed them for any sort of quirkiness reason, but when you’re dropping back in trip it’s better to have them and not need them than not have them and need them. It was a phenomenal effort from Solness to give it all that the whole way, and Grey Dawning showed the class and determination when he really needed to.”
Power show
Oddschecker Sefton Novices' Hurdle
A feature of this race was the efficient jumping by the whole field. Only one runner, Seaniecon (7.5, lost eight lengths) got a Jump Index score lower than 8.
It was run at an even gallop, too, and the winning time was the quickest since 2017, which was run in a near identical time.
Only the first four saw it out properly, with the winner, Zeus Power, never far away and staying stoutly that to overhaul front-running Catchintsavo. Zeus Power’s Finishing Speed Percentage was 102.03% and he would have been more convincing had he not made an error three out, where he lost 0.67 lengths.
He had previously been a keeping-on third to King Rasko Grey in the Turners’ Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, and that form was to get another boost the following day.
The eye-catcher was Johnny’s Jury, the Albert Bartlett hero, who was out the back for the first half of the race before keeping on to be a never nearer third. He was marginally fastest in the final furlong, but it was too little, too late.
The staying division is crying out for new blood. Zeus Power is 16-1 for next year’s Stayers’ Hurdle, with Johnny’s Jury 25-1.
What they said (JJ Slevin): “He just towed me the whole way. We dropped him right in at Cheltenham and he relaxed better but in the box seat here he just towed me and I was a bit worried about that. He’s a fair horse I’d say. He stayed every yard and he’s only five-year-old.”
Mirabad picks up the pieces
Hallgarten & Novum Wines Maghull Novices' Chase
The fences got in the way of Salvator Mundi, the odds-on favourite, who jumped worst of all.
Good leaps at the second and ninth fences gained him 4.43 lengths but they were not enough to paper over the cracks. Overall, he got a score of 6.5 and lost almost a length.
Kala Conti, the second favourite, did not convince in the jump department either, but she was moving forwards when exiting four out. Ironically, she had pinged the previous fence when gaining almost two lengths.
With Mighty Bandit a big drifter and running flat, the door was open for a surprise and the strong travelling Mirabad took advantage. The 50-1 chance looked up against it, but he pounced from off the pace in a race that fell apart. His Career Jump Index is 6.1 and this was probably an instance of him being in the right place at the right place.
What they said (Dan Skelton): “I’ve no idea how that happened, but I said to the lads beforehand that the only time he has run moderate for us was at Bangor, where he probably got stuck in the ground, and you can have a bad day. I said to Tristan ‘drop him in, go thieving, and nick what you can, and you never know’. It was always going to be a strong pace.”
A race to keep a close eye on
Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle
The first three had all been support players in the Turners at Cheltenham, giving a second boost to King Rasko Grey in the space of 24 hours.
Bossman Jack was sixth at The Festival but would have been closer but for blundering at the last. Others jumped sharper than him here, too, but slick leaps at the final two flights helped him win with authority. He ran the final four furlongs in 58.26sec, about a second quicker than the next pair home.
With regard to his jumping, his Career Jump Index score is 7.7. His past three scores have been a very healthy 8.5, 8.6 and 7.7 but he has a mistake in him.
His stablemate, Soldier Reeves, bided his time in rear before coming home well to nab second off Ballyfad. He had also kept on well when fourth in the Turners and is an interesting prospect for the Stayers’ Hurdle, being quoted at 33-1. He's my first ante-post bet for 2027.
Lord Byron was still last of the 12 runners with three furlongs to run but kept on stoutly to finish fourth, with only the winner stronger over the final half mile. The Camelot gelding had previously finished a close fifth in the Triumph and connections will surely preserve his novice status for next year.
His jumping has been messy, but he looks all stamina and perhaps moving up to 3m will help him. He’s not among those quoted for next year’s Albert Bartlett, but that race could be worth exploring.
What they said (Dan Skelton): “He looked like a very good horse and the mistake at the last at Cheltenham probably cost him second, although I’m not sure we’d have beaten the winner. He’s got a big engine but a child’s brain. He didn’t jump the best on the way round, but hopefully it’s all ahead of him. He could be very good. Hopefully it all gets easier for him mentally and he’ll understand things a bit better and his jumping will get more reliable. He could go a long, long way. I wouldn't call him Gold Cup class as there’s a long way to go but he could be really, really good."
More glee for Home By The Lee
Jet2 Liverpool Hurdle
Is Home By The Lee getting better at the age of 11? Or is the staying division bereft of emerging talent? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
There was a time when Home By The Lee would hit flat spots and wrestle with himself, but there was a sense of inevitability about this contest once JJ Slevin invited last month’s Stayers’ Hurdle hero to lead shortly after halfway.
After five successive ordinary furlongs, ranging between 15.58sec and 16.25sec, Slevin decided it was time to get on with things and take opponents out of their comfort zone.
The final mile began with him reeling off five furlongs ranging between 13.85sec and 14.33sec, plus he was easily fastest in the final furlong (15.39sec) to win going away. Nothing else was with a second of him in those last 220 yards.
His jumping was good, too, earning him an Index score of 8.2.
The reliable Take No Chances chased him home, briefly looking a threat but left behind after the last.
Home By The Lee deserves an ovation, but it seems fanciful to think can hit similar heights next spring, aged 12. He is 20-1 to retain his Stayers’ Hurdle crown.
What they said (Joseph O’Brien): “We’ve been riding him a bit different this season and obviously he’s in great shape. We had a plan that 'JJ' would inject some pace down the back straight with a circuit to go and then whoever would beat him would outstay him, but he outstayed everyone at Cheltenham and he outstayed everyone today. He’s a superstar, but he’s a tricky customer you know and not an easy one to deal with.”