The Data Detective: clues and tips for York on Wednesday
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026
Andy Stephens, also known as The Data Detective, shares his best bets for day one of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival.
✅ 2.25 YORK: TREAN
Top Speed: 39.78mph
Final furlong at Fairyhouse: 11.76sec
Galway Time Index: 5.2 (meeting average 3.2)
Tream impressed at Galway last time when running his rivals into submission in a good time. That race was won by Constitution River a year ago.
He had also been a huge eye-catcher on his Fairyhouse debut when his final furlong of 11.76 seconds swept him from eighth to third.
This is a colt who looks blessed with the right blend of speed and stamina for York, and Paddy Twomey has been bullish about him.
✅ 3.00 MALTESE CROSS
Form on good or quicker: 1111
Stride cadence: lowest of field
William Haggas Actual v Expected at York: 1.85
Maltese Cross found Christmas Day too strong on soft ground in the Derby but can turn the tables on the quicker ground.
He’s since won the Grand Prix de Paris in France, doing well to get ip close home after escaping from a pocket. The winning time was the second fastest in the past 20 years.
York’s long straight should be tailor-made for a horse whose low stride cadence points to him staying well.
In addition, William Haggas’s runners have exceeded market expectation at York by 85 per cent in the past year.
✅ 3.35 OMBUDSMAN
Final three furlongs last year: 34.15sec
Time Index at Royal Ascot 2025: 9.3 (meet average 7.8).
Finishing Speed Percentage form figures: 111131211
Ombudsman is the highest rated horse to line up in the Juddmonte International since Frankel in 2012 and he can retain his crown.
He was awesome last year when he zoomed through the final three furlongs in 34.15 seconds.
His sparkling turn of foot has also helped him to win two editions of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. No gelding or colt has won that race in a quicker time than he recorded in 2025.
For more on his clash with Constitution River, click here.
THREE MORE QUICKFIRE SELECTIONS
Air Force One has plenty going for him in the opening sprint (1.50), provided he can avoid one of his occasional slow starts.
He's run a string of good races at this track and has a favourable draw in stall 5, which is worth an instant 0.68 lengths according to RaceiQ. The golden gates in the race are between 4 and 12.
Small Fry stands out on the clock in the stayers' handicap (4.10). He finished best of all when sixth in the Ascot Stakes and ran a cracker when runner-up to Hopewell Rock at Goodwood last time in a contrest where the Time Index was 10, when the meeting average was 7.
Savage Mariner is a more speculative punt in the final after failing to figure at Royal Ascot and Goodwood on his past two starts.
However, his debut second to Libertango in a good time reads well (pair clear) and he's now belatedly reunited with Colin Keane, plus is being equipped with first-time blinkers. He's 25-1, but the stable took this with a 33-1 chance last year.
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