The Data Detective: clues and tips for Saturday

Win strike-rate: 12.5% (3/24). Career Jump Index: 6.8 out of 10. 

Lengths Gained Jumping: has lost almost 48 lengths in his past 8 races. 

Tranquil Sea is likely to be popular here for Dan and Harry Skelton after an emphatic win at Plumpton last time, but he could be one to take on. 

He’s up 7lb in a better race and the RaceiQ data tells us he’s the joint worst jumper in the field, losing ground in 12 of his past 14 races. He may not get away with blemishes here. 

Career Jump Index: 8 out of 10. Past two Jump Index scores: 9.3 & 8.6. 

County Hurdle nugget: Gained 15 places in the last half mile. 

Gibbs Island caught the eye when seventh in the County Hurdle, having had only one behind him half a mile from home. 

He was fastest through the 14th furlong and continued to make gains, but simply had too much to do. He won on his only previous visit to Haydock and is one of the best jumpers in this field, having a Jump Index of 8 out of 10.

Charlie Appleby has had only one winner from 27 runners since April 17, but 14 of those have finished second or third and I wouldn’t get too hung up on his lean patch. 

This daughter of Dubawi, a sister Oaks runner-up Wild Illusion among others, created a good impression when winning on her debut at Newmarket in September and was not extended to follow up at Kempton last month. 

She reeled off our successive “fast” furlongs at the end of the latter race, with her 11.19sec in the tenth furlong being decisive. It had been a similar story on her debut. 

Romantic Symphony is not entered in the Oaks, but there is time for that to change. 

Appleby has a second ace up his sleeve for the Derby Trial on Lingfield’s card in the shape of Maho Bay. 

Another of Dubawi’s progeny, he romped home over 1m3f on his debut at Kempton in December and confirmed himself a bright prospect when following up in a novice event over 1m 2f at Newmarket last month. 

William Buick set solid fractions in the latter contest and the Time Index was 7.4 when the meeting average was 6.8. RaceiQ assessed the time as 1.74s quicker than Par. He pulled clear with something to spare, too, with Buick not having to get serious.

Draw advantage at Ascot: 0.7 lengths. Final 2f in the Lincoln: 24.21sec (best of the field)

Finishing Speed Percentage: highest in 8 of his past 14 races. 

Tribal Chief’s 0-20mph speeds make for sorry reading but he’s usually motoring at the business end, having the highest Finishing Speed Percentage in eight of his past 14 races. 

He was fastest in each of the final three furlongs when winning at Goodwood in August, and also finished best when third in the Lincoln last time. He has the pace to cope with the drop to 7f plus is favourably drawn and Billy Loughnane rides for the first time.

Draw advantage at Ascot: 0.5 lengths. Final furlong form: 1112. 

Billy Loughnane Actual v Expected at Ascot: 1.36. 

All of Valedictory’s RaceiQ numbers suggest he will relish moving up to 12 furlongs, having previously run over no further than 10. 

He’s always been doing his best work at the finish, including when losing his maiden tag at Chelmsford and when edged out on his handicap debut at Newbury last time. The winner has since followed up and Valedictory can defy a 3lb rise.

There are only a handful of runners in this 2m 7f novice chase and former smart staying hurdler Sandor Clegane seems sure to head the market after finally getting off the mark over fences at Down Royal last time. 

However, he’s probably not one to be backing at cramped odds. He had been beaten in his previous ten starts over the bigger obstacles and his Career Jump Index of 6.1 reflects a technique that still requires polishing. He only got a score of 5 last time and has lost about 47 lengths in his past five starts. In addition, he’s not always looked the most resolute 

There are a range of jumping abilities on show in the Killarney National – from 5.8 up to 8.0 – and O’Moore Park is among the more fluent in the line-up, having a Career Index score of 7.6. 

The Willie Mullins-trained gelding has run creditably over shorter trips at the big Festival meetings at Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Aintree. This step up in trip and shallower waters, plus Paul Townend (3122 on him) is belatedly reunited with him.