The Data Detective: clues and tips for Saturday

Infraad is a progressive middle-distance performer and can give William Haggas a fourth Melrose triumph since 2012.

He won in a time almost three seconds quicker than the RaceiQ Par at Glorious Goodwood last month and, with front pair pulling almost five lengths clear, a 7lb rise looks fair.

Haggas scooped the Great Voltigeur on Thursday and his strike rate at York in the past year is more than 30 per cent. His Actual/Expected (A/E) ratio at the track is 1.73.

Hopewell Rock showed all the qualities needed to win an Ebor when scoring at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago.

He relished moving up to over 1m 6f for the first time and broke the course record, winning in a time 4.66sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. That earned him a Time Index score of 10 when the meeting average was 7.

Hopewell Rock put his stamp on things by being quickest through furlongs 12 and 13, with his jockey suggesting afterwards he would have won with more authority had he hit the front a little later. Trawlerman won that race en route to Ebor glory in 2022 and Sweet William almost pulled off the double 12 months later.

The runner-up, Small Fry, franked the form when winning easily at York on Wednesday, and Hopewell Rock is 1lb well in despite having a 4lb penalty to shoulder.

He generally races in mid-division and the data tells us runners exceed market expectations when ridden in such a way in similar races at the track (A/E is 1.32).

We could get an inflated price, too, because James Doyle, Wathnan’s No 1 jockey, has opted to partner Opportunity, having optd to ride Hopewell Rock over him at Royal Ascot.

Adonius is a speedy two-year-old who chased home Pershaada in the Molecomb last time after winning his first three races.

He’s a long strider who is usually soon at the head of affairs and the data tells us that, historically, the leaders are heavily favoured here with their A/E being a glowing 2.16. The A/E for those who race in the rear is just 0.48.

1.40 Curragh: The Austrian failed to make much impression on his debut at Gowran when slowest to 20mph and racing in rear. However, his Finishing Speed percentage was best of all, and he's one to keep an eye on. It could be he is a handicap project. 

2.05 Chester: Goldmoyne had been knocking at the door before asked to do too much, too soon at Goodwood last time. He did well to be eighth given his Finishing Speed Percentage was only 16th best. Callum Shepherd now rides him for the first time and the data tells us a draw in stall 3 give the combination an instant advantage of at least a length and a half over those drawn 8 or higher. Look at racingtv.com’s new Pace and Draw feature for more details.

3.19 Newmarket: Royal Zabeel got a Time Index of 9.9 when the meeting average was 9.1when winning here in July and was an emphatic winner of the Great St Wilfrid Handicap when he clocked Par furlogs all the way. He’s likely to soon be in the thick of things and can take this if showing similar efficiency here. 

3.25 Curragh: Nola Soul is the juvenile with a massive stride. The Chesham winner finds himself in a hot Futurity stacked full of potential but he's not one to oppose lightly. The third at Royal Ascot has since won in Listed company and the fifth has subsequently been beaten just over a length in the Superlative Stakes. Meanwhile, the ninth and thirteenth have won handicaps at Glorious Goodwood off a mark of 85.