The 2026 Cheltenham Festival: how they bet and a 40-1 ante-post tip

Inothewayurthinkin is 5-1 favourite to retain his crown and the youngest runner in this year’s line-up, at seven, certainly has time on his side. 

Back-to-back winners had become a rarity in the race but Al Boum Photo and Galopin Des Champs have been two-time victors since 2019, while Minella Indo was runner-up when defending his title in 2022. 

Gavin Cromwell’s pre-race confidence in Inothewayurthinkin was striking – he usually keeps his cards close to his chest – and we know his horse copes well with much softer ground than he encountered last Friday. It will be fascinating to see if his connections can resist running him off a favourable weight in the . 

Fact To File, in the same ownership, is 6-1 after his dazzling display in the Ryanair. It’s easy to assume he was well served by the drop in trip, having seemingly not got home in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup, but Willie Mullins has yet to lose faith in his staying power and perhaps it is not that straightforward. 

I’d imagine he will begin next season with a defence of his John Durkan crown with a tilt at the King George VI Chase surely enticing (it did come under consideration this campaign) after that. He’s 3-1 favourite for the Kempton showpiece. 

Galopin Des Champs was initially put in at 10-1 to belatedly gain a third Gold Cup next year but has been trimmed to 9-1. That’s tempting given he looked head and shoulders above the opposition heading into Friday’s blue riband (had finished ahead of Inothewayurthinkin in their three previous clashes) but, for whatever reason, he simply was not at his best. 

The last ten-year-old to win was Cool Ground in 1995 but there will not have been many ten-year-olds as good as him to contest the race. Kauto Star and Denman were both 11 when chasing home Long Run in the 2011 renewal. 

It will be disappointing if the Skeltons do not entertain the Gold Cup with Grey Dawning (25-1) this time, especially as this season’s staying novices look an average bunch at best. Grey Dawning does need to go up another notch but, having missed Cheltenham, could well advance his claims at Aintree next month. Fastorslow (20-1) and Gerri Colombe (40-1) will need to show their wellbeing after injury. 

Snap thought: Galopin Des Champs is too big at 9-1. 

There have only been two nine-year-old winners of the Champion. Hurdle this century – Rooster Booster and Hurricane Fly – but Constitution Hill, who will himself be nine 12 months from now, will remain very low mileage, having had only 11 races. And, with a rating of 175, he still sets a huge standard. 

He was tanking along and jumping with all his usual brio until crashing out last week. The 7-2 on offer is tempting and won’t last if he shines at Punchestown next month. 

Some people have started getting a bit sniffy about his jumping, even suggesting his fall was down to “being cocky”, but you cannot be a fast, flashy jumper without sometimes pushing the boundaries. The possibility of a fall goes with the territory when you are constantly seeking to get the quickest way from A to B. 

State Man (16-1) will also be nine a year from now, but he was back on his A Game in first-time cheekpieces last week before crashing out at the final flight. The 16-1 is a bit insulting, although the manner in which Constitution Hill crushed him in the 2023 Champion Hurdle still lingers. 

Lossiemouth (8-1) again swerved the Champion Hurdle to gain a second successive win in the Mares’ Hurdle. I had no issue with that, not least because she looks so comfortable over 2m 4f, but she’s proven without doubt now that she’s in her element at Cheltenham (4/4) and I’d imagine the intention at the start of next season will be to aim for the big one, with one eye again on a Mares’ Hurdle hat-trick. 

There are likely to be a couple of new kids on the block in the shape of The New Lion (7-1) and Kopek Des Bordes (10-1). They cemented their reputations as top novices with their respective wins last week, although the pair still have some way to go to get to Constitution Hill’s level. 

The New Lion has not looked short of gears in his races over 2m 4f, but he didn’t have much in hand of The Yellow Clay and Final Demand (both staying types) in the Turners and his pedigree is all about stamina. I’d imagine handicapper James Norris will push his mark up into the mid 150s, or a little higher, but that will still leave him needing to find a chunk of improvement over a trip he’s never run over (and is not bred to excel at) assuming Constitution Hill retains much of his ability. It seems he is finished for the season. 

Kopek Des Bordes overcame worries he may lose his race before it started and, while he had to be driven out in the Supreme to get the job done, he did win in a time about 4sec quicker than the Champion Hurdle later in the afternoon. This fluent traveller should be an even stronger, more mature model a year from now, although Mullins was thinking aloud afterwards, asking himself the following question: “He's built like a chaser, but could he stay hurdling?” Maybe Punchestown will tell us more. The 10-1 probably factors in the possibility of him going over fences. 

Anzadam (16-1), in the same ownership as State Man, has plenty of potential but he will have to reach the next level after a season cut short by injury. Golden Ace is 33-1 to retain her crown, but surely will not get so fortunate a second time. More interesting, at the same price, are the strong-travelling Kargese, who exploited a mark of 141 in the County Hurdle, and Sixandahalf, runner-up in the mares’ novices’ hurdle after travelling like the winner for the first 97 per cent of the race. More of the latter, though, in the Mares’ Hurdle segment. 

Snap thought: Twelve months is a long time to be sitting on a 7-2 shot, but Constitution Hill still stands out from the crowd. 

In the glow of an 18-length win in last week’s Champion Chase, trainer Barry Connell has suggested Marine Nationale could at least win a couple more editions of the two-mile showpiece. 

His pride and joy is 7-1 to retain his crown, although last week’s form looks shaky because few in the race seem to give their running and the unconsidered Quilixios (25-1) was not done with when coming down at the final fence. 

Things didn’t go right for Jonbon from the start and the temptation is to put a line through the run, but all four of his defeats have come at Cheltenham and last Wednesday was not the first time his jumping has betrayed him. On balance, I’m a little surprised that a horse odds-on to win this year is as big as 10-1 when he had excuses. 

Of course, much will hinge on how Sir Gino (7-2 favourite) recovers from the virus that threatened his life this winter and has meant he spent many weeks in an equine hospital. He's now back at Seven Barrows and we will all be hoping to see this hugely exciting young horse back on a racecourse, but he will have a lot of hoops to jump through. 

I’ll be surprised if Majborough (8-1) follows the 2m path – I fancy Willie Mullins will be working backward from the 2027 Gold Cup – and it is unlikely we will ever see Arkle winner Jango Baie (33-1) over 2m again. Gaelic Warrior (20-1) has loads to prove and I’ve got a hunch the strong travelling L’Eau Du Sud (33-1) will keep falling short at the top level. Top-end handicaps run at an end-to-end gallop may serve him better. 

Fact To File (25-1) would be interesting given the gears he showed when waltzing away with the Ryanair but this is probably his third most likely destination after the Gold Cup and Ryanair. 

Snap thought: Let’s review again after Punchestown. 

It’s been a similar refrain for a while now, but this is a division crying out for new faces. Teahupoo (6-1) looks ante-post favourite by default after being unable to cling on to his crown and Bob Olinger (16-1), who took it from him, is surely going to be vulnerable as an 11-year-old. 

The bookmakers are getting themselves in a right muddle because they’ve got Majborough (12-1), Lossiemouth (16-1) and Final Demand (20-1) prominent in their lists. I’d want at least those prices about them lining up in the race, let alone winning it. 

Willie Mullins could end up holding the key because Ballyburn (12-1) and Jasmin De Vaux (14-1) would be hugely interesting if pointed in this direction. 

Ballyburn was an exceptional novice hurdler last season (only 2lb inferior to Teahupoo with more to come) but looks much less potent over fences. I’d half-convinced myself he would find a way to win the Brown Advisory, but he was keen and, not for the first time, struggled in the jumping department. 

Mullins seems keen to persist over the larger obstacles, at least for the time being, suggesting Ballyburn might be allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs the next time we see him. 

But I cannot see him ever scaling the heights as a staying chaser in Open company and it’s not as if the stable has a void in that department with Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File in their team. 

I’d imagine he would be no bigger than 2-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle if Mullins said that was the plan. And I’d make it no more Evens that this time next year he will be over the smaller obstacles if he keeps being betrayed by his jumping. Odds of 2-1 and Evens equals 5-1; hence I’m interested in the 12-1 available. 

Jasmin De Vaux was a revelation when stepping up to 3m for the Albert Bartlett. Having looked clueless in the jumping department up to that stage, the Champion Bumper winner was much more efficient and looked like winning a long way out. But Mullins said afterwards that he might jump fences even better, so it’s clearly in his mind to send him chasing next season. 

The Big Westerner (25-1), runner-up in the Albert Bartlett, would also warrant attention, but she is another bound for chasing. The door is open for a changing of the guard, but it seems nobody has any great ambition to have a Stayers’ Hurdle winner these days. 

Snap thought: I would not want to lay Ballyburn at 12-1. But we do need to effectively land a double here. 

Fact To File heads the ante-post betting at 3-1 after his flawless display last week but the Gold Cup surely beckons a year from now. 

Next in the market is Majborough (10-1), and it would look a good fit for a horse who looked so exciting on his first two starts over fences and would have won the Arkle but for errors at the final two fences. However, that was a good opportunity spurned and life will get together next season. 

There are then a batch of horses quoted at 16-1 – Jango Baie, Jonbon, Banbridge, Ballyburn and Grey Dawning – but the only one of those who would think is odds-on to turn up is Jango Baie, and I still don’t know quite what to make of his unlikely Arkle triumph. 

One who appeals at this stage is The Jukebox Man, quoted at 40-1. 

He was placed in three Grade One novice hurdles in 2023-24, including when runner-up in the 2024 Albert Bartlett, and made a great impression when winning on his first two starts over fences this term, landing the Grade One Kauto Star at Kempton on his second start. 

Sadly, he was ruled out for the season at the end of January after sustaining an injury when exercising at home but Ben Pauling, his trainer, said recently: “It (his recovery) couldn’t have gone better really and it gives you every faith. The way it has gone, touch wood, he’s almost going to be back in exercise before the summer, then he can go out and have his summer and then we can have a proper season next year. He’s going to be well handicapped.” 

He's more than a handicapper, though, and is a stayer who has speed. I fancy the Ryanair will come under strong consideration along the way given that Pauling seemed a little torn between the Arkle and Brown Advisory before having matters taken out of his hands. The intermediate trip would be a perfect compromise.

Snap thought: The Jukebox Man is worth a play at 40-1. 

Final Demand (6-1) predictably heads the market as he was a solid third in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle after his impressive win at the Dublin Racing Festival. He looks every inch a 3m chaser but, at this stage, there’s not much juice in his price. 

More interesting is the 16-1 on offer about The Big Westerner. 

This imposing, chasing-bred mare is a half-sister to dour stayer Stay Away Fay and won on her point-to-point debut. She has been marking time over hurdles this season, yet still ran a cracker when runner-up in the Albert Bartlett to Jasmin De Vaux (14-1). 

She’s a much more obvious chaser than the winner and Henry De Bromhead’s horses are always impeccably schooled. 

The Big Westerner will also have the option of running in the 2m 4f Mares’ Chase if things go to plan next term and she’s no bigger than 5-1 for that race.

However, she’s all about stamina and, of course, would be up against non-novices in that contest. There would simply be no logic in heading that way with her. 

Snap thought: The Big Westerner is a smashing prospect for staying novice chases next term and 16-1 is chunky. 

Lossiemouth (5-2 favourite) will surely get her chance in the Champion Hurdle this time (yes, I know we’ve been here before) and Brighterdaysahead (6-1) seems certain to be heading over fences. 

It would be odd, usually, if the Champion Hurdle winner,  did not defend his/her crown, although Honeysuckle swerved the 2023 renewal having won the past two editions and the decision to divert to the Mares Hurdle was duly vindicated. 

Golden Ace (16-1) looked bound for the Mares’ Hurdle last week until Lossiemouth went in the opposite direction. And, let’s face it, everything fell her way. Quite literally. 

I can certainly envisage a scenario where she has her limits exposed against the best over 2m next season, and that the Mares’ Hurdle becomes a more logical target. 

Her races over 2m 4f this term have hinted at stamina limitations, but they could be a red herring as her stable was not in great form at the time. She bolted up over 2m 4f on the New Course at April last year and the Old Course is less taxing. 

Sixandahalf (14-1) was one of the biggest eye-catchers among last week’s losers and she’s also on my early shortlist. Some will jump to the conclusion she didn’t quite get home but she’s a strong 2m stayer on the Flat and it could well be she will be even more effective over the longer trip. 

Snap thought: Golden Ace and Sixandahalf are interesting at the early odds on offer. 

Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill (7-2)

Brown Advisory: The Big Westerner (16-1)

Ryanair Chase: The Jukebox Man (40-1)