Cheltenham Festival: how solid are the Henderson hotpots on day one?

There are only seven weeks to go before the Cheltenham Festival and we are fast approaching the time when a minor setback can puncture dreams that have sometimes been years in the making. It’s the time of the year that you should think about buying shares in the producers of cotton wool.

Nicky Henderson has been there, done that and got the T-shirt when it comes to the highs and lows in the build up to the four biggest days in the calendar.

In 2010, for example, he ruled Binocular out of the Champion Hurdle a month beforehand because of a muscle problem, only to do a U-turn when the gelding recovered much quicker than expected. The non-runner became a runner and took the crown after trading at 999-1.

Two years ago, he had assembled a powerful team, only for his yard to suffer untimely health issues. Most of those he ran disappointed, while numerous big names stayed at home. He ended up suffering his first blank at the meeting since 2008.

Henderson got back in the groove last year and this time he has much to anticipate, with Old Park Star (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle), Lulamba (Arkle) and in Sir Gino (Unibet Champion Hurdle) all favourites to win the Grade One contests on the opening day. It is about 23-1 that he has an afternoon not quite like no other.

How solid are the Henderson hotpots? Will he have a terrific Tuesday, or a terrible one, or somewhere in between? Let’s take a closer look at those darts being sharpened at Seven Barrows. 

Hurdling form: 111. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.7. Odds: 11-4. 

He’s the clubhouse leader after his demolition job in the Rossington Main at Haydock on Saturday, when he gave an 18-length drubbing to Hurricane Pat. That came after a similar romp at Cheltenham in December and a winning hurdling bow at Kempton in late November.

A feature of his past two wins have been his slick jumping and the way he has powered through the line.

He’s going to be some chaser in time, too, with his brother, Chosen Mate, having won the Grand Annual in 2020. 

A 1m7½f race on a tight track like Haydock, away from soft ground, did not look an obvious fit for Old Park Star, given how strongly he had finished over 2m 1f on the New Course at Cheltenham, but the six-year-old is clearly not short of speed, reeling off three sub-13 second furlongs in the final half-mile. None of his rivals could manage one of those and were left gasping.

Moreover, he won easing down and with Nico De Boinville merely nudging along with hands and heels. The only time he’s been given a tap over hurdles was at Kempton, when the response was immediate.

Hurricane Pat was a superior horse to Old Park Star in bumpers and had been allotted a mark of 136 after impressing in winning his first two starts over hurdles at Sandown, the second being a Listed affair. He was given a stalking ride, jumped fine and had every chance up the straight, but simply could not keep up, having a thankless task trying to concede 2lb. There’s no reason to think he did not run to his mark.

The 130-rated Soldier Reeves, who had won at Cheltenham in November, and 125-rated Japetus, previously unbeaten over hurdles and seeking a fifth successive win, could never get into contention.

Henderson has landed five editions of the Supreme, with his past three, Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill, lining up with ratings of 155, 153 and 148 respectively. Old Park Star is now on a perch of 151.

For what it is worth, seven of the past 13 winners have had an official rating of 153 or higher. They have been Kopek Des Bordes (157), Vautour (155), Douvan (155), Altior (155), Klassical Dream (154), Shishkin (153) and Appreciate It (153).  So, on ratings, Old Park Star is clearly right up there with many exalted names from yesteryear, with all the attributes needed to win the race. I'm surprised he's not shorter in the betting.

Who are the dangers among the other 63 entries?

El Cairos, the 5-1 second favourite, was among last season’s top bumper performers, finishing fifth in the Champion at Cheltenham, when he got messed about, and second at Punchestown, when he would have won had he not hung violently left in the closing stages. On both occasions, he was ridden by his then owner, the amateur David Maxwell.

Having changed hands for £410,000 and switched to Gordon Elliott, El Cairos would have made a winning start to his hurdling career over Christmas but for exiting after the final flight, when he tried valiantly to keep his feet. His jumping was good, including at that obstacle, and he’s a most exciting prospect but it is slightly surprising that Gordon Elliott suggested on Monday that he will not get the chance to advance his claims at the Dublin Racing Festival. Instead, the trainer is preferring another maiden hurdle as a prep.

Talk The Talk, trained by Joseph O’Brien, was also a faller at the final flight at the same meeting, when seemingly just about to put his stamp on the Grade One Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle. Ironically, he had jumped better up to that point than when previously winning at Limerick and Fairyhouse. He’s a short price to win the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle on Sunday week, but 8-1 for the Supreme.

Willie Mullins has scooped the Supreme a record eight times but this season his cupboard has looked fairly bare. But write him off at your peril. His Mighty Park, owned by JP McManus, threw his hat in the ring with a 38-length winning debut in a 16-runner maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse last week. He slots into the “could be anything” category and is no bigger than 12-1. 

Chasing form: 11. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.0. Odds: 6-4. 

Lulamba has made an almost flawless start to his career, is unbeaten over fences and is trained by a man who has already landed the Arkle a record eight times.

But bits and pieces of the puzzle do not quite fall into place for last season’s Triumph Hurdle runner-up, when a 100-1 shot (Poniros) having his first run over Jumps managed to steal his thunder.

Lulamba did not look a natural over fences when winning on his chasing bow at Exeter in November, when getting 8lb weight for age from his rivals in a race where four fences were omitted, and he still looked a bit raw in the jumping department when mastering two other finishers in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Despite the lack of runners, RaceiQ had him losing between 5.4mph and 7.58mph over each of the first four fences, something he won’t be able to get away with in an Arkle.

By way of comparison, all the runners in the Arkle last year lost an average of between 3.79mph and 4.38mph.

Lulamba subsequently warmed to his task and ended up winning in commanding fashion, but he was getting 6lb from both Be Aware and Lump Sum, who have subsequently fluffed their lines at short odds.

And then of course, we must remember that he is only a five-year-old.

Half of the winners between 1998 and 2006 were from that age group courtesy of Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes. They might have had a fifth had Frozen Groom not fallen three out when moving well, in the lead, in the 2000 renewal, and Twist Magic was also bang in contention when departing in the closing stages in 2007.

The triumphant quartet were blessed with plenty of ability but also benefited from significant weight-for-age allowances, designed to compensate younger horses for their immaturity when taking on their elders. The allowances were intended to make for a level playing field, but the scales had been tipped disproportionately in favour of the youngest runners in the race. 

For instance, Champleve was getting 8lb from Hill Society when fending off that horse’s late surge by short head in 1998. And the brilliant Well Chief was getting 4lb from his elders when taking the honours in 2004, although he needed all of that to repel Kicking King by a length in a vintage edition. 

Two more five-year-olds made the frame in 2007 but by now the British Horseracing Board, the ruling body at the time, were close to moving the goal posts. 

The following month it was announced that weight allowances for four-year-old and five-year-old chasers would be reduced following a review, with a consequence being that five-year-olds would no longer receive any weight-for-age allowance in the Arkle. 

Since then, only 11 five-year-olds have run in the Arkle, and they have not been represented at all in ten editions since 2010. All of them have been beaten, with Fakir D’Oudairies, the runner-up in 2020, faring best. 

They have had several well-fancied contenders during that time, especially Majborough, who went off the 1-2 favourite last year. He would have surely won but for errors, but there’s the rub. 

Henderson said after the Henry VIII Chase that he would try and get two more races into Lulamba but that’s not going to happen now. Unraced in points or bumpers, he’s had only six races, with perhaps one more to come before mid-March. The Game Spirit at Newbury would be a bold move, but there is a paucity of top two-mile chasers.

Kopek Des Bordes (11-4) and Romeo Coolio (6-1) are among the other 23 Arkle entries, a dozen of them trained in Ireland. 

The former won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year and impressed on his chasing bow at Navan in mid-November, but a setback means he might have to head to Cheltenham without another run, which is not ideal. 

Romeo Coolio, third in the Supreme, will not be short of chasing experience, having chalked up wins at Down Royal, Fairyhouse and Leopardstown. He only scrambled home when dropped back to 2m 1f last time, prompting Gordon Elliott to suggest the Arkle could be too sharp, but he ticks plenty of boxes and the temptation to run will be strong.

He has three other entries in King Of Kingsfield, Relieved Of Duties and Kala Conti.

Hurdling form: 1111-1-1. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.3. Odds: 11-8. 

The first thing any ante-post Festival favourite must do is make the gig in the first place. 

Sir Gino was a hot favourite for the Triumph Hurdle two years ago but ended up staying at home. And 12 months later, he was favourite for the Arkle, only to instead find himself in hospital fighting off a life-threatening infection. 

If any horse deserves a break, surely it is this fabulous racehorse, who in between interruptions has flashed all his brilliance. 

Those anxious that his extended stay in hospital might have left a mark had their fears eased with his imperious comeback win in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last month. 

He raced with all his usual brio and thumped the opposition without seemingly coming out of second gear. Quoted at 7-4 for the Champion Hurdle in the immediate aftermath, those odds have shrunk to 11-8. 

That Kempton success, when making it seven wins from seven starts, was not without the odd blemish. He made a mess of the fourth flight and ballooned a couple of others. The RaceiQ data tells us he jumped worst of the whole field, earning a Jump Index score of 7.3 and losing 0.59 lengths with his leaping. 

Sir Gino reserved his best jumps for the final three hurdles, when his revs were up. It gave us a clear indicator that the rust was falling off him by the finish. 

He is blessed with so much ability that it might not matter if he does not outjump the opposition. He’s clearly lost none of his speed, illustrated by the fact that he was fastest in each of the final four furlongs without being extended, and he can only be sharper for that run. 

Henderson is going to unleash him in the Unibet Hurdle on Trials Day at Cheltenham on Saturday. 

The New Lion (4-1) is next in the market and will be waiting for him this weekend, but he had a fight on his hands when exiting in the closing stages of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle in November and will need to do better. Golden Ace (16-1), fortunate winner of the Champion Hurdle last year, won that race – and might have done so anyway - but she was subsequently no match for Sir Gino at Kempton, albeit that track was not ideal for her. 

Lossiemouth (13-2) is not certain to run, and neither is stunning 2023 winner Constitution Hill (12-1) after his three successive falls. Brighterdaysahead (12-1) ran a stinker in last year’s edition but could try and make amends if she shines at the Dublin Racing Festival. 

But, at this stage, Sir Gino stands out from the crowd.