The 2019 Unibet Champion Hurdle: Eight crucial questions

Buveur D'Air heads 27 entries for the Unibet Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on day one of The Festival on March 12.

Nicky Henderson's star has captured the past two renewals of the two-mile hurdling championship, worth £450,000, and is trying to become the sixth three-time winner since the race's inception in 1927.

Ireland's champion Jump trainer Willie Mullins is responsible for five of the 12 Irish-trained entries, with his quintet headed by last year's neck runner-up Melon and rising force Laurina. Here are eight questions, and answers, to consider in the build-up.

No. It is difficult to believe his price will contract much, if at all, between now and March and in any case the bookmakers are hardly dangling much of a carrot.

Let’s zip back to this time two years ago when Nicky Henderson and JP McManus spied a gap in the hurdling division and aborted his promising chasing career.

It was an inspired move; Buveur D’Air proving himself the best around by winning an ordinary running of the Champion Hurdle in 2017 and then retaining his crown, when all out to win by a neck, in another non-vintage renewal last year.

Of the ten rivals he beat on the latter occasion, only Wicklow Brave has subsequently won a 2m hurdle – and that was when he was 1-16 to beat two vastly inferior rivals at Listowel in September.

You can only beat what you are up against it and Buveur D’Air’s high cruising speed, fast hurdling technique and turn of foot has stood him in good stead.

However, he gave his supporters a scare when scrambling home from Melon in last year’s Champion Hurdle and his shock defeat at the hands of Verdana Blue, his stablemate, officially rated 20lb inferior, in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time rings alarm bells.

In between, he had looked imperious in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle but it subsequently transpired that his main opponents, Samcro and Summerville Boy, had health issues.

Laurina and Sharjah will represent new faces to overcome in March, while those connected with Melon and Verdana Blue will fancy their chances of taking his crown. And then there is also the possibility of either Samcro or Apple's Jade taking him on.

There have been only five previous three-time winners and none since Istabraq, also owned by JP McManus, in 2000.

The past two to try and join the club – Hardy Eustace and Hurricane Fly – came up short when sent off at 3-1 and 11-4 respectively. The exalted sextet of National Spirit, Bula, Comedy Of Errors, Monksfield, Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon also had to settle for two triumphs.

Hardy Eustace was having his 31st outing when attempting to win a third time in 2006, while Hurricane Fly was having his 35th in 2014. Both finished fourth and Hurricane Fly returned a year later, on his 40th start, to be third.

By contrast, Buveur D’Air has had only 19 races but do not buy into arguments that it is all about miles on the clock. For example, Istabraq was having his 21st race when winning his first Champion Hurdle crown.

Istabraq, like Buveur D’Air, was eight when winning for a third time but Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War and See You Then were all seven-year-olds. The last-named, trained by Henderson, ran over hurdles just 15 times during his injury-plagued career.

The answer could well be both.

Five runs for Willie Mullins on soft/heavy ground have yielded five wins by an aggregate of 100 lengths and increasingly positive comments from those closest to her.

Mullins is not prone to hyperbole but after she sauntered home on her return under Ruby Walsh at Sandown this month he volunteered that at this stage of her career she was as good, if not better, than any mare he has trained – including Annie Power, the 2016 Champion Hurdle winner, plus six-time Festival heroine Quevega.

That is some compliment.

But we don’t know how she will cope with better ground and her victories have been achieved against her own sex in fairly weak races.

Her general ante-post odds of 7-2 (Betfair go 4-1) reflect the exciting style of her victories and not the substance of them.

Many of us thought we had seen something out of the ordinary when she won the mares’ novice hurdle by 18 lengths at the Festival last March but keep in mind that few coped with the conditions and that the 122-rated Champayne Lady finished third.

The handicapper attempts to deal in facts, rather than potential, and the Irish assessor has Laurina on 155 – which is 7lb inferior to Apple’s Jade and 9lb less than Melon. Buveur D’Air has a mark of 172 in England.

It could well be that Laurina is capable of significantly better and is perhaps a champion in waiting but none of us know exactly what she is capable of. Not even Mullins or Walsh.

The possibility of both being in the line-up is as likely as the word “Brexit” not being mentioned in a news bulletin anytime soon (ever?) but I would not discount one of the star pair turning up.

Samcro is on the easy list after connections discovered that he’s been suffering from a lung infection but Gordon Elliott did not totally rule out Cheltenham when interviewed on Racing TV on Sunday.

If the antibiotics work their magic and Samcro works with zest in the build-up, then why not have a crack at the big one? It’s likely to be his one opportunity with a switch to chasing on the cards next season.

The fact that he is available at 25-1 allows for the fact that he might not resurface until Aintree or possibly even Punchestown.

Apple’s Jade, a top-priced 16-1 with Betfair, has looked better than ever this term and her 20-length romp in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse in December, when she won at the main expense of Supasundae and Limini, is the best bit of form on offer.

However, Gigginstown seem adamant that the Mares’ Hurdle is her most likely destination, with the Stayers’ Hurdle not totally discounted.

She has not run over two miles since being pipped in the 2016 edition of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle - her past 13 appearances being over 2m4f or farther.

But that all that is set change on February 2 with Apple’s Jade an intended runner in the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown.

If she wins, then surely she will be given the opportunity to follow up in the English version?

The dice is certainly loaded heavily in their favour. Between them the trio are responsible for 15 of the 27 entries plus the first eight in the ante-post betting.

Jessica Harrington is flying the flag for "The Rest" with Supasundae.

Ah, yes, the mercurial Beech Road, whose preparation was anything but orthodox: two non-completions over fences plus a heavy defeat in a handicap hurdle at Sandown the previous month.

It all came together on the day that counted for the Toby Balding-trained chestnut, who subsequently proved that success was no fluke.

Among the 50-1 chances this year are Mohaayed, winner of the County Hurdle last term but there's nothing with Beech Road's profile.

February 2: 888Sport Contenders Hurdle at Sandown: Trainers are creature of habit and Nicky Henderson has used this as a prep for Buveur D’Air before each of his Champion Hurdle wins in the past two years. His Binocular also won it in 2010 before winning at Cheltenham and in 2011. Henderson also scooped it with See You Then in 1986. The past six renewals have been contested by fields of 3, 4, 4, 4, 4 and 3. So if you are an owner who has a racehorse not paying his way, get him or her entered and thank me later.

February 2: The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle: Ireland’s finest two-mile hurdlers are usually all on show and the dozen engaged this time include Apple’s Jade, Supasundae (who won last year), Laurina, Melon, Sharjah and Faugheen. Four-time winner Istabraq routinely won it en route to scooping the spoils, while Hurricane Fly won it five times in succession. No wonder there is a fabulous statue of him there.

February 9: Betfair Hurdle at Newbury: There is no horse rated higher than 153 in this year’s renewal, which suggests it is unlikely to house the Champion Hurdle winner. Similar was said before then 1997 running, though, when front-running Make A Stand ran his rivals ragged off a rating of 140 before repeating the dose at Cheltenham.

February 16: Betfred Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton: The days of multiple winners such as Bula and Lanzarote have long gone and in recent yearss the winners have made little impact at Cheltenham a month later. Katchit (2008) was the last winner to use it as a stepping stone to Champion Hurdle glory and, before him, Hors La Loi (2002) and Alderbrook (1995).

I’m against Buveur D’Air at the prices, for all that he might put his blip at Kempton behind him and win again.

It’s tempting to believe Laurina is the next big thing but she’s no bigger than 4-1 and so we can take a view on her closer to the time.

Bet365 are among those going non-runner-no-bet and that makes nine-time Grade One winner Apple’s Jade a must wager at 9-1.

Her connections have offered little encouragement she will run but there is plenty of time for them to change their minds and her performances this campaign – especially her 20-length drubbing of Supasundae at Fairyhouse last month - suggest she is at the peak of her powers.

It does not take a massive leap of the imagination to see her making all in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown and, if she does, it would seem inconceivable she will not stick to two miles at Cheltenham.

And, of course, if she doesn’t run, we will get our free bet back!