The 2019 Cheltenham Festival: How solid are the favourites?

For those of you who are not already deeply involved in a myriad of ante-post positions and are instead still carefully sifting through the Cheltenham Festival markets, now might be a good time to look at the short-priced favourites.

With that in mind, I have had a look at all the favourites for the 28 races chalked up at 3-1 or shorter and have tried to assess whether the prices on offer represent betting value, or whether they are lay propositions.

In general, I am marking up Irish runners due to their increased stranglehold on the Festival of late and looking at a range of other factors - such as likely jockey bookings and course form - and not relying solely on the raw achievements of what each horse has done this season.

Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30, Tuesday).

General odds: 5-2

There are an awful lot of boxes to tick when assessing Al Dancer's bid for success in the Festival curtain-raiser.

He has a course and distance win next to his name and announced his well-being with a smooth success in the Betfair Hurdle, rerouted to Ascot, in February.

However, he has not yet won a graded race, and he raced keenly in the Betfair Hurdle which was a weaker than usual renewal after the flu crisis.

Back Or Lay Verdict:Lay.

Race: Racing Post Arkle Chase (2.10, Tuesday).

General odds: 3-1

Are the stars aligning for Kayley Woollacott's runner as he bids for a fairytale win? With his Sandown conqueror Dynamite Dollars now joined by ante-post favourite Le Richebourg on the sidelines, you may think so.

However, Sandown was a significant disappointment and I am not convinced his rivals were tuned up when he won the official trial for the Arkle in November. The possibility of Defi Du Seuil being switched to this race is another factor.

Verdict:Lay.

Race: Unibet Champion Hurdle (3.30, Tuesday).

General odds: 2-1

Is Buveur D'Air good enough to match Istabraq's three Champion Hurdles in the same McManus silks, and See You Then's hat-trick that launched Henderson's career?

The trainer's seven wins in this, alongside the Cheltenham skills of Barry Geraghty, are big positives.

However, he won this race by only a neck last year and his Kempton defeat at Christmas was a big shock. I believe one of the two terrific Irish mares, whether Laurina or Apple's Jade, will find a way past a horse who does not seem as imperious as he once was.

Verdict:Lay.

Race: OLBG Mares' Hurdle (4.10, Wednesday).

General odds: 6-4

With Apple’s Jade and Laurina likely to go down the Champion Hurdle route, this race seems destined to go to Willie Mullins' Benie Des Dieux, who should give the trainer his ninth win in this contest.

Nominated by Mullins as his best chance of the week, she will not have raced for nearly 11 months when she lines up at Cheltenham.

However, her record suggests she is at her best after an absence and front-running stablemate Stormy Ireland could well set up the race for her.

Verdict:Back.

Race: Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (1.30, Wednesday).

General odds: 3-1

Being beaten by a neck just over a year ago at Ascot may very well have worked in favour of Champ, who missed the rest of the season and thus qualified as a novice for the 2018-19 season.

He is four from four since then and, although he does not always settle well, he did last time out when winning the Challow Hurdle in fine style from Getaway Trump.

Few jockeys ride Cheltenham as well as Barry Geraghty and Champ, a solid jumper, has a fine chance of winning at the Festival.

Verdict:Back.

Race: RSA Novices' Chase (2.10, Wednesday).

General odds: 3-1

Santini is one of a number of Henderson runners for whom circumstances have conspired against in terms of finding a suitable prep run.

The seven-year-old has an exalted reputation - one that was somehow enhanced despite finishing third of seven in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

A school of thought says Cheltenham suits his running style much better than Kempton. However, he was beaten in last year's Albert Barlett and I am not sure there is enough solid form in the book to justify backing him at 3-1.

Verdict:Lay.

Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30, Wednesday).

General odds: 4-9

Altior will seek to record his 18th successive victory over obstacles in the Champion Chase next month, but 4-9 is a terrible price considering he was given a fright by Un De Sceaux in the Tingle Creek and consistently jumped left in a weak race a couple of months later.

He also hit a flat spot in last year's Champion Chase, which is a negative.

His supporters will simply point to his 17 wins from 17 starts over obstacles as reason to back him blind, but there has to be a chance that Altior may prove vulnerable, and this year's Cheltenham Festival might just be the moment that is proved to be the case.

Verdict:Lay.

Race: Cross-Country Chase (4.10, Wednesday).

General odds: 5-4

An emphatic winner of a hurdles race he wasn't expected to win on February 17, Tiger Roll is highly likely to be leaner, fitter and hungrier for a fourth Cheltenham Festival success in this year's Cross-Country Chase.

The reigning Grand National champion has a fascinating story to tell - he lost a bunch of races between the ages of five and six, for instance - but appears to be in his prime now and although this is always a tough race to unravel, it will almost certainly prove fruitless to oppose him on this occasion.

Verdict:Back.

Race: Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle (3.30, Thursday).

General odds: 7-4

Paisley Park scotched theories he may be unsuited to Cheltenham when running out a seriously impressive winner of the Cleeve Hurdle in January.

His only previous run at the course, when 13th in last year's Albert Bartlett, came in a first-time visor which has sensibly been dispensed with and he has won all four of his races since then, showing his effectiveness on different types of ground.

He probably came of age when collecting the Long Walk Hurdle and a weak renewal of the Stayers' Hurdle - which became weaker on Wednesday with Penhill being ruled out - is a tremendous opportunity for Emma Lavelle to land the feature race on day three of the Festival.

Verdict:Back.

Race: Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle (4.50, Thursday).

General odds: 3-1

Nicky Henderson found a suitable, if very weak race at Exeter on February 22 to use as prep racefor Epatante, and the five-year-old duly obliged at 1-6 having also won on debut for the same connections three months earlier.

She had an enormous amount in hand both times and appears to be a strong traveller who has a Grade One bumper in France on her CV.

There is an Irish mare in the race called Honeysuckle who is earning a strong reputation, but there is just enough meat on the bone at 3-1 about Epatante.

Verdict:Back.

Race: JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30, Friday).

General odds: 6-4

Fusil Raffles is almost certain to miss the race, a real shame after his tremendous win at Kempton this month.

That leaves Sir Erec as a clear favourite and bookmakers are already fearing an onslaught of cash on this juvenile by Camelot out of a Galileo mare.

A Listed winner on the Flat who was also third in the Long Distance Cup on British Champions' Day, Sir Erec learnt plenty when a neck winner on hurdles debut for Joseph O'Brien at Leopardstown.

He subsequently won a Grade One at the same course in February in a most taking manner and must be the one to side with come the final day of the Festival.

Verdict:Back.