Andy Stephens looks ahead to three days top class action at Newmarket, with his fancies including a 25/1 chance in Saturday's big handicap.
THURSDAY
3.55: AL NAYYIR
Race: Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes. Best odds: 2/1
The globetrotting AL NAYYIR ran a cracker on his first start for Tom Clover when beaten a short head by Vauban in the Lonsdale Cup at York last month.
That form is working out well enough is easily the best on offer and this is an easier assignment, for all that Aidan O’Brien is represented by the progressive Fighter and Dermot Weld sends over the progressive, but penalised, Harbour Wind.
Aly Nayyir’s second place in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan in March, when splitting Tower Of London and Trawlerman, also reads well.
Versatile regards the ground, he has excellent prospects of going one better on Thursday before probably lining up in the Long Distance Cup on QIPCO British Champions Day.
Flying Officer (2015) and Trawlerman (2023) took this Listed contest en route to winning at Ascot and the 16/1 available about Al Nayyir looks fair each-way value, especially with plans for Kyprios, the hot favourite, being up in the air.
Jane Chapple Hyam told us more about Rolica after her win at Newmarket in April FRIDAY
1.50: ROLICA
Race: Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes. Best odds: 5/1.
Jane Chapple-Hyam has had a quiet time since Mill Stream landed the July Cup but her runners this month have not been doing much wrong and that augurs well for ROLICA.
This daughter of Lope De Vega lost her maiden tag at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting in April before running a cracker to be sixth in the 1000 Guineas, being beaten about three lengths despite being too keen in the first half of the race.
Rolica was betrayed by that exuberance in a Group Two contest at Chantilly the following month but she settled better when a one-paced fifth to Tamfana in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time.
She clearly didn’t reproduce her Guineas running that day, but it was her first start for three months and her weakness in the betting hinted the outing might be needed.
I’d imagine her connections were satisfied that she at least raced more economically and if she can return to anything like that Guineas form, when not far behind Porta Fortuna and ahead of such as Fallen Angel, then she must be a big player. The general 5/1 available looks chunky, with the market headed by Spiritual, who finished a couple of lengths ahead of her at Sandown but is 3lb worse off.
Formal has impressed in each of her races
3.00: FORMAL
Race: Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes. Best odds: 2/1.
The Sir Michael Stoute Farewell Tour continues at Newmarket this weekend and let’s hope the great man lets the exciting FORMAL try and give him a fourth Rockfel triumph after Top Hope (1981), Musical Bliss (1988) and Cape Dollar (2010).
Musical Bliss went on to land the 1000 Guineas, of course, and Formal is a best-priced 20/1 to win the fillies’ Classic after impressive wins at Newbury and Leicester.
The style of those victories, coupled with her pedigree – she’s by Dubawi and is the first foal of Veracious, the 2019 Falmouth winner, with Frankel as her grandad – suggests that Cheveley Park have another terrific prospect on their hands.
There is also some substance to her form as Qilin Queen, a distant third to her at Newbury, won a £40,000 novice event at Salisbury next time before finishing a two-length runner-up to the highly regarded Luther in a Listed contest at Haydock.
SATURDAY
Wimbledon Hawkeye ran a cracker n the Acomb
1.50: WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE
Race: Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes. Best odds: 6/1.
Aidan O’Brien seems on a mission to win this year’s Royal Lodge as he’s got ten of the 16 entries left in the mix. However, it’s one of the home team who makes most appeal in the shape of the James Owen-trained WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE.
He is the clear form choice after staying on doggedly to split The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court in the Acomb at York last time. I’m sure he would be a lot shorter in the betting if he was in a bigger yard.
The way he stuck to his task at York suggests moving up to a mile will suit and that’s supported by his pedigree. His sire, Kameko, the 2000 Guineas winner in 2020, was effective at up to a mile and a half (fourth in the Derby) and his dam, Eva Maria, was a ten-furlong winner on softish ground on the Rowley Mile. And she was herself sired by Sea The Stars.
Slower ground would be an unknown for Wimbledon Hawkeye – as it will for many in the field - but his pedigree offers encouragement he will cope. And Owen, operating under both codes, has his horses in excellent form, chalking up seven winners from his past 16 runners.
Babouche will put her unbeaten record on the line
2.25 BABOUCHE
Race: Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes. Best odds: 13/8.
Juddmonte have an excellent team of two-year-olds this season, with my colleague Ross Millar pinpointing five of their best in his latest Juvenile Watch column.
Babouche is their leader in the clubhouse, having preserved her unbeaten record by batting aside Whistlejacket in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh last time.
She’s now back against her own sex with the best form on offer and more improvement in her locker. I’ll be backing her to beat French challenger Daylight.
Dual Identity can make it third time lucky in the Cambridgeshire 3.40: DUAL IDENTITY
Race: Bet365 Cambridgeshire. Best odds: 25/1.
A six-year-old with a modest wins-to-runs ratio running off a career-high mark in one of then year’s toughest handicaps will not be for everyone, but Dual Identity has lots going for him and rates a cracking each-way punt at the general 25/1 on offer.
He is unlucky not to already have one Cambridgeshire on his CV as he burst clear on the far side two years ago, only to be overhauled close home by a pair who raced in the much bigger group on the near side. He “won” on his part of the track by about six lengths and his in-running price shrunk to 1-10.
Dual Identity was also in front with two furlongs to run in last year’s renewal but, usually held up for a late run, the positive tactics backfired. He faded to finish out of the frame, albeit he was only beaten about three-and-a-half lengths.
He has looked better than ever this season, winning at Sandown in May and running numerous other good races in defeat when not getting the rub of the green. On his latest start at York’s Ebor meeting, for instance, he got stopped in his run two out but kept on well to beat all bar Sir Busker, his rejuvenated stablemate, in a hot 17-runner affair.
Dual Identity’s 3lb rise is a nuisance but warranted, and his connections will not be perturbed by the threat of more rain as he acts well on soft ground. The draw will play a part, as ever, but another big run is on the cards.