Dave Nevison's Saturday tips: Betfred Derby day bets at Epsom

All the field in this annual “Dash” are five-furlong specialists, and most of them we know plenty about, and are very familiar with, but Fair Wind might be one who is less exposed plus may have more upside than his rivals. 

He is only 3lb higher than when he won a big-field Ascot sprint last year, and he definitely looked, on that occasion, as if he could win races off much higher marks. 

That is the positive but he comes with risks having refused to race on his final start last season, and was absent until finishing last on his recent reappearance nine months later. 

The comeback run definitely had the look of a gentle reintroduction, and can be viewed positively. If Owen Burrows has him back to the form he was in early last summer, he might have a great chance here. 

Burrows started the season in excellent form, and has recorded five seconds from his past ten runners, so is still in decent form, and Fair Wind has attracted ante-post support for this. 

It is great to see 19 runners declared for the Betfred Derby, and it is set to be a cracking race, with several contenders looking to find massive improvement to land the Classic. 

My approach to this race is ultra-traditional, and I believe that the Betfred 2000 Guineas is the best trial for this race. The 9-2 on offer for the Newmarket winner is therefore a strong bet to me. 

I have little doubt about the strength of the Guineas form, so the reason that the Godolphin colt isn’t a strong favourite must be based on stamina fears. I am hoping that the fact his dam is by High Chaparral proves to be a potent influence and, if so, I think Ruling Court will definitely stay the trip. 

Very soft ground on Saturday might be a concern, but he made a winning debut on easy going, and I am sure William Buick will ride an appropriate race. 

Ralph Beckett will be hoping he is still popping champagne after winning the Derby by the time this traditional handicap is being run, but he also has a very strong candidate to win this event with the lightly-raced Valvano. 

The four-year-old has been beaten three times off the rating he runs off here, but It is easy to believe he is well capable of winning from this perch.

The selection was placed in two very competitive all-aged handicaps last season and his reappearance effort suggested very strongly that this race on Friday was his first major target of this year, so the handicapper was right to leave his mark unchanged. 

Beckett, as usual, has his yard in excellent form for this meeting, and I expect a very strong run from Valvano. 

I had a strong message for Circe when the filly ran at Newmarket, but wouldn’t take the relatively short price as I believed the four-year looked fairly exposed. 

She won nicely that day, despite the narrow winning margin, and has already followed up at Windsor, winning comfortably despite another narrow verdict. 

The in-form Richard Hannon looks to have found the key to this filly by dropping her back down to six furlongs, and she definitely looks to be a sprinter very much on the up now. 

She is only 6lb higher than the first of those victories, but that is nothing for a red-hot sprinter, and she should make a bold bid to complete the hat-trick.