A slight change to the Juvenile Watch column this week as Ross Millar analyses the chances of the hot favourites in the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot next week. Is Alfred Munnings a Royal Ascot banker this year? (Pic: Focusonracing)
COVENTRY STAKES
Current favourite: Noble Style.
General odds: 3-1.
Overview: This Godolphin-owned son of Kingman was well supported in the market before his debut at Ascot over five furlongs, and he duly rewarded the support in an impressive manner. Against more speedily bred opposition, he travelled much the best and was comfortably the last to come off the bridle.
When asked to quicken, the response wasn’t instant, but when he found his stride, he quickly drew clear of Walbank, who was himself a wide-margin winner on his next start, and the form has further been boosted with both the third and fourth scoring since.
Given how strongly he galloped through the line, a step up to six furlongs looks sure to bring about even more improvement. That theory is also rubber-stamped by his pedigree as Kingman never ran over less than seven furlongs, while his dam, Eartha Kitt, is a half-sister to 2018 Chesham winner, Arthur Kitt, and was herself a winner over six furlongs.
Banker or blowout: This has the makings of a high-class renewal but the manner of Noble Style’s win at Ascot and, the high chance that he could take a big step forward for this extra distance, means I’m loathed to oppose him at the current prices. BANKER
QUEEN MARY STAKES
Current favourite: Love Reigns.
General odds: 3-1.
Overview: Any two-year old that Wesley Ward chooses to bring to Royal Ascot has to be feared, given eight of his 12 Royal Ascot winners have been in this division.
Love Reigns, a daughter of first season sire, U S Navy Flag, made an eye-catching debut at Keeneland in April, bolting up by ten lengths from stablemate Rivka, and she visually looked very impressive as she ran strongly to the line over five and a half furlongs, which bodes well for the stiff five furlongs at Ascot.
The form is yet to be tested and, truthfully, unless you are a student of the US racing (which I am not) you are largely being asked to take short odds simply because of reputation.
Frankie Dettori has often been the preferred choice to pilot Ward’s Ascot raiders, but this year he has been overlooked in favour of leading US jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr.
Given that the topography of Ascot is different to anything he’ll have ridden on before, this is a small negative to my eye.
Banker or blowout: Both Meditate and Dramatised offer a high level of unbeaten form heading into this, while Breege should not be dismissed lightly despite disappointing last time. As a result, I’m keen to oppose Love Reigns. BLOWOUT
NORFOLK STAKES
Current favourite: The Antarctic.
General odds: 5-1.
naas
13:45 Naas - Sunday May 15
Watch how The Antarctic made it two from two last time out
Overview: A full brother to the much loved, Royal Ascot winning speedster, Battaash, The Antarctic is unbeaten in two starts for Coolmore, showing versatility by winning on soft ground on his debut at Tipperary before following that up under a penalty at Naas.
He did get upset in the stalls on debut, so his temperament is a small concern (Battash was notoriously hot-headed), and the atmosphere at Royal Ascot could prove to be his undoing.
Banker or blowout: The presence of the solid, but unspectacular, Wadao, who has finished just behind The Antarctic on both starts, leaves me a little cold at his prospects. Aidan O'Brien's youngster has the type of profile of a horse I like to oppose; he comes from a feared operation and has a fancy pedigree. I think he’s short enough on the form he’s achieved so far and can see plenty of legitimate opposition to him. BLOWOUT
ALBANY STAKES
Current favourite: Statuette.
General odds: 9-4.
navan
13:05 Navan - Saturday May 28
Watch: Statuette wins on debut at Navan
Overview: This giant filly became the first European winner for US Triple Crown winner, Justify, when she powered to victory on her debut at Navan.
Her dam, Immortal Verse, won the 2011 Coronation Stakes, and is the dam of last year’s Cheveley Park winner Tenebrism.
Statuette is physically nothing like her name suggests. She dwarfed the opposition at Navan, and at this young stage of their careers, such a physical advantage should not be underestimated.
The race at Navan was over five and a half furlongs, with Statuette doing all her best work late on, so the extra distance here, and the stiff nature of the track, will play to her strengths.
She also displayed a fairly big knee action, so ground quicker than good (if such a thing exists anymore) would be a potential negative.
Banker or blowout: Although she lacks a small amount of experience, I think she has strong claims. However, my favourite filly of the season so far holds an entry in this (which will be revealed in my
Juvenile Watch column next week) and I’m going to take Statuette on.
BLOWOUT CHESHAM STAKES
Current favourite: Alfred Munnings.
General odds: 11-10.
leopardstown
17:10 Leopardstown - Friday May 13
Alfred Munnings was a hugely impressive winner at Leopardstown first time out
Overview: Even by the highest of standards Coolmore set for themselves, this son of Dubawi looked ultra-professional on his debut at Leopardstown. He broke smartly from the gate and then settled beautifully in behind the leaders plus looked beautifully balanced before striding away to an effortless five-length victory under minimal pressure from Ryan Moore.
The form has a mixed look to it; runner-up, Segomo, was well beaten on his next start, although fourth-placed Voce Del Palio won on his next outing.
As a half-brother to the ill-fated Snowfall, Alfred Munnings is bred to be exceptional for connections that have won the past two renewals of this race.
Banker or blowout: At a shade of odds-on with some firms, he is the shortest of all the favourites we have discussed and is not a bet that appeals to me. However, the balance and power he displayed on his debut suggests he has all the tools required to win this. BANKER
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