Royal Ascot tips: Dave Nevison's best bets for day four

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Fri 18 Jun 2021

Our website tipster Dave Nevison put up 12/1 winner Lola Showgirl on Wednesday and has three more handicap fancies for day four of the Royal Meeting.

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As I write on Thursday morning, Ascot only got 2.4mm of rain overnight so it seems highly unlikely that things will have changed regarding the draw on the straight course - especially given the varied forecasts predicting up to an inch of rain will have tied the clerk’s hands if he had planned to water.

Frankie Dettori showed on Duke Of Cambridge winner Indie Angel why he is still different class on the big occasion, being the only rider to make his way to the stands’ side in a winning manoeuvre that was an embarrassment for some of the top jockeys. I suspect the far rail might be a lonely place again today.

5.00 Ascot: Messidor at 40-1

The British handicapper might have let Messidor in lightly given she is only 1lb higher than a very good run at the Curragh last time, and she couldn’t be drawn any better provided she can hold a position from stall 32.

That latest effort was over seven furlongs, and although she disappointed on her last try over a mile she refused to settle and was possibly too fresh on seasonal debut at Dundalk back in March. In a race such as this, I feel she will prove suited by this trip run at a pace.

Messidor proved most progressive last season and looked as though she has picked up again this term. She has plenty of experience compared with others here and will obviously lack for nothing in the saddle, with regular rider Dylan Brown McMonagle one of the best claimers in Ireland since subsequent champion Colin Keane.

5.35 Ascot: Aaddeey at a general 6-1

Two horses here have been raised 13lb each for strolling home in decent handicaps last time and I feel this could be between them. However, Aaddeey has fared better with the draw than Quickthorn and Oisin Murphy may have a tough decision to make regarding tactics compared to James Doyle in stall 12.

Aaddeey was well backed on his return at Newbury in April, but he was narrowly beaten by Flyin’ Solo who won impressively next time out at York. Aaddeey was backed into odds-on at Newmarket on his next start and bolted up in a small-field handicap by 4 ½ lengths from a good subsequent winner.

The four-year-old looks a potential Group horse in a handicap - which is pretty much the norm for winners of this race - and he will not be troubled if the rain keeps falling through Thursday and Friday.

6.10 Ascot: Warrior Brave at a general 8-1

I feel Boomshalaa might be the real class act in this race, but if he starts as slowly as last time and gets stuck behind horses over this minimum trip he might have a real tough time getting through.

The percentage call for me is straightforward sprinter Warrior Brave, who is 7lbs well in on official ratings after his excellent recent effort behind the Group-class Atalis Bay at Sandown and this prominent racer is drawn okay in the middle of this field. Warrior Brave showed last time that a stiff five furlongs suits him ideally as he was closing down Atalis Bay at the finish.

Silvestre de Sousa has presumably recommended the blinkers instead of cheekpieces and they might sharpen him up Warrior Brave from the stalls even further, while the Twilight Son gelding is capable on soft ground. Few of his rivals are as well-in or as progressive and everything points to a good run.

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