Road To Cheltenham Part One: Temps worth a tickle in Triumph at 20-1

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The atmosphere at Leopardstown was electric as Honeysuckle eased away from Zanahiyr on the home turn to register her third Irish Champion Hurdle success and extend her unbeaten career sequence to 14.

Afterwards, fans were running to claim a vantage point so that they could cheer, photo and film the mare and her steadfast jockey Rachael Blackmore as they made their triumphal way back to the winner’s enclosure. In a thrilling weekend at the Dublin Racing Festival, this was the crowning moment. I have the video and photographic evidence to prove it on my phone, like so many.

I’m not going to re-engage with the ‘where she sits in the pantheon of hurdling greats’ debate as I discussed that in the fourth column of this series and, with this latest success, Honeysuckle “merely” extended her longevity rather than upgrading her form. In fact, she’s yet to return this season to the levels achieved at Cheltenham and Punchestown last term – or even to match last year’s Irish Champion Hurdle victory with this effort.

It may have been that Zanahiyr was unable to compete to the degree for which Gordon Elliott had prepared him, as a bad blunder at the very first hurdle saw him drag his back legs in the turf. That error might not only have had an impact on his performance but also on Jack Kennedy’s intended tactics – albeit he did appear, on the approach to the first, to be surprisingly willing to let Heaven Help Us control modest fractions rather than making the most of his mount’s stamina.

As usual, Honeysuckle’s jumping was sound but unspectacular – airy at the first, in close at the fourth, adjusting left three out, attacking at the next and adequate at the last. Even as she started to take Zanahiyr’s measure as they both surged past Heaven Help Us two out, her jump was far less efficient than that of her main rival. It doesn’t matter because she’s miles better than them all.

For the reasons cited above, it might be that Zanahiyr can get closer to Honeysuckle at Cheltenham – especially with stablemate Teahupoo potentially on hand to contribute to a good pace. The two horses are in different ownerships but both shape like strong stayers at the trip and are unlikely to compromise each other. The problem is that Honeysuckle is in the same mould.

Third-placed Echoes In Rain has been scratched from the Unibet Champion Hurdle, presumably with the highly suitable target of the County Hurdle in mind. She was held up too far off the steady pace here and ran by far her best race of the season to date. Her keenness should be offset by the nature of her Cheltenham target, for which she is understandably favourite in most books.

Her stable companion Saint Roi stood his ground at the forfeit stage, but jumped scrappily and failed to build on his encouraging seasonal-debut third in the Matheson.

Heaven Help Us, with cheekpieces reapplied, was always going to be unsuited by this relative speed test – even if she was in control of its tempo. It will be interesting to see what mark the British handicappers allot to last year’s runaway Coral Cup winner, when she was given a performance figure of 150 by the local assessors. She’s also still in the Grade One Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle over 2m4f.

In Patrick Mullins’ Racing Post column on Monday, there was no mention of a problem with his four-time Matheson Hurdle winner Sharjah but a good line in regurgitated trash-talking about Honeysuckle. “I ran into Paul Townend as he was weighing in from Echoes In Rain,” he wrote. “And, while he didn’t quite go full Kevin Keegan, he did say to me with a smile in his eye: ‘I can’t wait to have a crack at her with the big horse.’”

That big horse is Appreciate It, who dodged a clash with the race-fit uber-mare last Sunday and will instead take her on with the benefit of more recovery work under his belt. This snippet of reported conversation suggests that missing the Irish Champion Hurdle was indeed a tactic by Willie Mullins and that last year’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle winner is – at least now – on course for Cheltenham, having been switched from a chasing campaign.

Not so Sharjah, who – it turned out on Tuesday – had been scratched from the race. The Closutton Order has ths far been characteristically vague in this regard, Mullins Snr merely stating: “The aim is to get him back for Punchestown, a track where he has already won the Morgiana Hurdle twice.”

Former dual winner Buveur D’Air and the 2020 Supreme runner-up Abacadabras have been scratched from both the Champion Hurdle and Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, with the former already confirmed by trainer Nicky Henderson to have the Aintree Hurdle as his target – the race the latter won last term.

Other notable exits came from last year’s fourth Aspire Tower – unraced to date this season – and, thankfully, Goshen – who, returned to a right-handed track, was fully back to his best with a 15-length trouncing of Song For Someone in the anomalously titled Contenders Hurdle at Sandown last Saturday.

Goshen might encounter Buveur D’Air in the Kingwell next – albeit Henderson has said he could use a handicap for the latter’s prep. Owner Steve Packham has indicated that Goshen will go novice chasing next season, due to the wider range of right-handed graded options over fences.

However, the four-year-olds Monmiral and Adagio – unraced since, respectively, flopping in the Fighting Fifth and a career-best second in the Greatwood followed by a setback – both remain among the Champion Hurdle entries. The novice My Mate Mozzie also stands his ground, despite being thumped by Sir Gerhard at Leopardstown last Sunday.

It’s a great achievement to win the same Grade One event three times – especially when you’re as fragile as Chacun Pour Soi. Yet he neither faced a rival of vaguely comparable standard in last Sunday’s Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, nor did he execute victory in quite the scintillating style of which he is capable.

That makes it sound like I’m crabbing him – I’m not. I’ve long been a fan of this horse and, if anything, I think he’s been undervalued and misinterpreted at his peak. His demolition of Allaho at Punchestown last April, even if that horse was over the top for the season, was deadly and his eight-length trouncing of Fakir D’Oudairies in this race last year was almost as good.

The fact this was the least impressive of his hat-trick of Dublin Racing Festival triumphs was primarily a function of the restraint with which Townend opted to ride him in the early stages, taking a lead behind the relatively sedate pace set by Dunvegan from after the first fence. It was also because nothing could push him at any stage, with purported closest rival – British raider and the Tingle Creek winner, Greaneteen – running an absolute shocker.

Comparative times on the day were revealing, with Galopin Des Champs clocking closing splits that were arrestingly similar to those of Chacun Pour Soi – primarily underlining what a performance of huge quality the novice had delivered (carrying just 2lb less) by sustaining that pace at the close of a longer trip and secondarily suggesting the Dublin Chase held little depth.

Dunvegan thoroughly deserved his runner-up berth, building on the greatly improved form he had produced on his preceding two starts in Fairyhouse handicaps. He raced enthusiastically, in stark contrast to Cash Back, who received some sharp reminders from Danny Mullins after diving at the first and then proceeded to over-race as though spooked by the task at hand.

Third-placed Captain Guinness couldn’t get involved under a patient ride, again indicating that he isn’t really this class – even in a weak and one-sided Grade One. Greaneteen, who raced alone towards the inside, couldn’t find any fluency when getting in close to some of his early fences. He tried to press the leaders five out, only to be awkwardly upright at the next. He was well beaten before two out, reprising stablemate Frodon’s heavy defeat at Leopardstown the previous day.

Winning trainer Willie Mullins revealed to Racing TV’s Nick Luck that he’s taking a new approach with Chacun Pour Soi following his hamstring injury when last seen, running abjectly in the Tingle Creek in December, and in light of the ten-year-old’s shaky overall participation record.

“This time, I just got him 95% ready and I think he’s probably better at 95% than he is at 100% [fitness] because when I do a little bit more with him, I’m not sure he’s able to take it now,” Mullins admitted. “We’ll just leave him now probably a shade undercooked and hopefully we can do that for the rest of the season, because I don’t think he’s ever brought his best game across the water for whatever reason.

“We’ll do what we did here and just train him at 95% or 90%. Basically, don’t gallop him hard and I think that seems to be the key to him. He was just firing all week for me at home and every time we did a little bit of work, I said 'Don’t work him, just let him do what he’s able' and Dermot, who rides him at home, does that. And I think it suits him better. He was in much better form coming up here.”

Asked whether he believes Chacun Pour Soi is capable of beating the newly-famous Clarence House 1-2, Shishkin and his own younger stable companion Energumene, the trainer said: “I think he is, yes, but he just hasn’t brought the game he plays here across to England and I’m hoping we can get there in that order over there in March.”

Personally, I don’t think Cheltenham’s Old Course will ever suit Chacun Pour Soi, no matter which way he’s ridden. It’s no coincidence that his standout best effort came at Punchestown, given he adjusts right and tends to clock his strongest fractions in the mid-part of a race.

Yet the restrained manner in which he was deployed here was also confusing, bearing in mind that Mullins concluded Townend had not been aggressive enough when beaten into third behind Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra in last year’s Queen Mum, hence the aggressive approach at Punchestown next time out.

Do these Dublin Chase tactics suggest Energumene will be left alone to make the running next month, rather than taking a lead? Memories can be short. Or else, because Chacun Pour Soi will henceforth only ever be 90-95% fit, could it be that a more conservative manner of riding is part of the deal? Surely not but either way, I couldn’t construe it as a positive.

The two Closutton runners are complicating factors for each other, as well as bringing doubts about their suitability for the track. So, Shishkin notwithstanding, I’m starting to come around again to my dusty 25-1 each-way position on the 2021 Champion Chase runner-up. Nube Negra will also have the benefit of being fresh. With 18 horses standing their ground at this week’s forfeit stage, he’s now fourth in at 10-1 non-runer-no-bet.

The last piece of this pre-Festival puzzle will be fitted at Newbury on Saturday when a maximum of four rivals will take on Hitman, one of several runners on the card for the under-a-cloud Nicholls yard, and the inevitable Sceau Royal. The most interesting player is potentially Editeur Du Gite on his first dabble in graded company after sidestepping the Dublin Chase.

Far from cutting each other’s throats up front, Frodon and Kemboy raced far apart with the latter ceding the lead to the former in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup. Both seemed to lay off the revs, with the result that Bryony Frost set self-defeatingly slow fractions – or else both she and Paul Townend’s mount lacked the capability to go any faster.

That left reigning Gold Cup winner Minella Indo – as a thorough stayer – at the greatest disadvantage and means he did well to haul himself into second in the circumstances. This factor also handed the prize to 18-1 outsider Conflated under a well-judged but cutely opportunistic ride from Davy Russell.

Eddie O’Leary, racing manager to winning owners Gigginstown Stud, was keen to hand all the credit to trainer Gordon Elliott, whose declaration of the Foxrock Handicap Chase winner for this Grade One seemed to have been widely regarded as on the optimistic side until the race started to develop as it did. Asked afterwards whether he thought Conflated is now a Gold Cup candidate, O’Leary said: “If you can believe it, yes.”

I’m not so sure. No doubt, this was astute placing from Elliott to chuck into a wide-open race a horse trying a new trip and who’d recently produced a marginal career-best at Navan. This was a contest in which none of the contenders could be wholly trusted, which is presumably why the total fruit-and-nutcase Asterion Forlonge was sent off the 5-2 favourite.

That was a moment of mass hallucinatory madness. Goodness knows what we’d all been smoking. The grey sat off the steady pace, wide and in rear, and even jumped straight rather than out to his right. The closest he came to his party trick of throwing himself to the ground was when lacking fluency two out – and yet this cult figure made no impact at all. Bryan Cooper could have sworn this horse sniggered as he dismounted, but maybe it was just the wind.

Stablemate Janidil – well-backed on the day – didn’t jump well enough and is starting to shape as though he’s simply not this class, regardless of whether he needs dropping back in trip. Mullins’ other runner Kemboy – hitherto as reliable as clockwork at this track, having both won and finished second in this race in the past – jumped poorly, if characteristically out to his right. He’s not entered at Cheltenham. Cilaos Emery, Mullins’ final contender, unseated Sean O’Keeffe like the habitual clutz that he is.

Frodon didn’t jump with his A-game metronomic fluency or travel with his usual push-button pep, and he weakened quickly once headed by Conflated’s superior leap three out. In a press conference for Newbury’s Betfair Super Saturday raceday, Nicholls flirted with blaming rain on pre-watered ground both for this heavy defeat and that suffered by Greaneteen.

Yet he ultimately admitted: “Looking at the way they ran, it wouldn’t have mattered what the ground was. But both like decent ground and it was one of the reasons we targeted those races.”

Others have pointed to both horses being stuck to an inside line that most of the domestic riders eschewed – albeit this ignores the fact that Russell closely attended Bryony Frost for much of the Irish Gold Cup on the winner.

The key point is surely that Nicholls’ Ditcheat yard is currently operating at the unthinkably low strike rate of 5%. At the time of writing, they’ve had just one winner from their past 23 runners and it wasn’t much better in January, when they were 7 for 56. They’re usually banging in winners at a minimum of 20+%. The usual excuse for their habitual lull at this time of year – flu jabs – is clearly no longer even washing with the trainer.

“We had a problem in January 2015/16 and it turned out to be the hay,” he has recalled. “The longer you leave haylage, the mineral levels drop down. Back then, we put them on potassium and calcium supplements and we’ve already put them on that now as we are suspicious. We’re just guessing that’s what it is. We’re waiting for the tests to come back.

“You wouldn’t know there was a problem looking at them. When they are sick or have a cough, you know where you are and you draw stumps. But this is like it was a few years ago. I think it’s a short-term thing. You can overthink things and I think you can put a line through a few of them for one or two different reasons, but there’s one or two that you can’t. I think you’ve just got to be positive and crack on until you know otherwise.”

That cracking on involves his dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux attempting to win back-to-back renewals of the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury this Saturday. Notably, he could face Gold Cup intended Royale Pagaille.

Returning to the narrative of the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, Russell took advantage of a ground-gaining jump three out to make his race-winning move on Conflated. This immediately had some listless rivals under pressure and caught the stayer Minella Indo right out. Whilst the winner careered clear entering the home turn, Robbie Power was working hard on his new partner, the reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup hero. They couldn’t bridge the gap.

Yet Henry de Bromhead professed himself “delighted” and asserted that the horse would “come on again” for this run. “Whether it’s the time of the year, whether it’s going to Cheltenham, I’ve no idea but he seems to be a better horse when he gets there in March,” the trainer said – and the market agrees. The horse is now best-priced 11-2 with Bet365 only, on ante-post terms.

De Bromhead also shouldered the blame for the horse’s King George defeat. “I think it was pretty obvious I got it all completely wrong,” he said – presumably referring to the first-time cheekpieces he applied to add some zip for Kempton.

Intriguingly, while de Bromhead also observed that Power and the horse “got on really well”, he would not confirm the partnership would remain in place for the Gold Cup. “Look, it was great that Robbie rode him [but] I would hate to say anything straight after a race, so we’ll see,” he said.

There are two scenarios potentially at play here. First, that something could happen to Gold Cup ante-post favourite A Plus Tard and so stable jockey Rachael Blackmore would want to switch back to Minella Indo – the horse she usually rides but whom she had to watch, kicking her heels from the weighing room, last Saturday.

Second, that de Bromhead still hankers after a scenario that sees Jack Kennedy – who deputised so successfully last March – back in the plate at Cheltenham. That relies on a number of factors, including Elliott and Gigginstown not fielding in the Gold Cup either Conflated or his serially disappointing stable companion Delta Work, who was beaten a long way out in first-time cheekpieces at Leopardstown.

Kennedy’s primary loyalty is to them and why would Elliott want a jockey of his talent on a horse of that ability ranged against Russell and Galvin?

I suspect Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated might end up here as I doubt Gordon Elliott’s team believe he possesses sufficient stamina for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup – and I agree with them. As discussed above, there was a steady pace early on and that played into Davy Russell’s hands when he asserted on this quicker horse from three out.

“Conflated has the option of the Ryanair and the Gold Cup, so we won’t rule anything in or out at this stage,” the trainer has since told the Racing Post. Rather flattered by this result, he’s got about 10lb to find with Ryanair titleholder Allaho.

“Have you asked Asterion Forlonge about the wind? How does he feel about it?” Nick Luck asked of Willie Mullins in my favourite Racing TV exchange of last weekend, as it blew a hooley prior to the Irish Gold Cup.

“It wouldn’t be his favourite thing, now,” Mullins replied. “Are you being serious?” Luck asked. “I am, I am, yeah,” the trainer admitted. “He’s quirky enough without wind going around his head.”

And thus, Asterion Forlonge was provided with yet another excuse for underwhelming. There’s got to be a chance that he ends up in this Festival event, even though both Ruby Walsh and Jane Mangan argued in last Saturday’s Road To Cheltenham roadshow that he does not stay three miles.

I disagree – his issue is that he just doesn’t win. You can back him at 25-1 on ante-post terms and as short as 6/1 NRNB for this event. Have I? At bigger prices, I’ve dabbled on the exchanges. I’m hardly going to risk real stakes on this crackpot.

Melon, with whom he both shares a yard and owners Joe and Marie Donnelly, might be a good reason why Asterion Forlonge instead heads to the Ryanair following his third behind Chantry House in last year’s Turners (then Marsh). It seems that Melon – four times chief bridesmaid at the Festival, in the 2017 Supreme, the 2018 and 2019 Champion Hurdles and the 2020 JLT (No no no no no no no! After you, Samcro!) – is headed here.

As is, it has been confirmed, Champ. Tick tock. By which I’m referencing his body clock and not suggesting he’ll break into a brief choreographed dance with Frank Berry and AP McCoy.

One for the linearists. After pushing subsequent runaway Finesse winner Pied Piper to half a length on their mutual hurdling debuts at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve – despite not jumping as well and lacking a clear run in the straight – Vauban took the scalp of that horse’s better-esteemed stable companion Fil Dor in Saturday’s Racing TV-sponsored Spring Juvenile.

Perhaps the most arresting element of this development was trainer Willie Mullins matter-of-fact confidence in his winner’s JCB Triumph Hurdle prospects in his post-race interview at Leopardstown. “If you can get past him, it’ll be good – it’d be hard to get past him, I’d say,” he told Nick Luck.

Positioned on the outside of the field by Paul Townend to enable a clear sight at his obstacles – and presumably so as to ward off Davy Russell again inconveniencing him on a different Gordon Elliott-trained rival – Vauban was careful at the first and untidy at the fourth-last, but otherwise sound. He definitely and habitually adjusts right, yet probably not markedly enough to be an issue on Cheltenham’s New Course.

“It was all about jumping,” Mullins had earlier confided. “I just said to Paul as he went out: if you can get him jumping, you’ve got a great chance here. With his Flat rating, we know he’s a smart horse but he just has to get his jumping right – he got it right today. And I still think he’s going to improve a lot more from that.”

A Listed race winner over 12 furlongs in France on just his fourth career start, Vauban was rated 105p by Timeform on the Flat whereas Pied Piper was 103. Racing Post Ratings had them both on a peak of 101, albeit the latter had three times as many starts and needed the deployment of two different types of headgear.

It’s reasonable to project that Vauban could have the greater potential improvement of the pair – and, indeed, in books where they are not joint Triumph Hurdle favourites, the Mullins-trained horse edges the Elliott one at 2-1 over 9-4 on NRNB terms.

Afterwards, Elliott was reported to be neither disheartened by Fil Dor’s defeat nor much moved from his pre-race position that the Spring Juvenile runner-up is a better horse than Pied Piper. He believes the greater stamina test of the Triumph will better suit his grey – hitherto unbeaten in three starts for the yard and proud owner of a determined head carriage – than this Leopardstown event.

He did shape like a stayer, with Russell never quite able to get him going fast enough to stretch his rivals from the front, and he made an uncharacteristic mistake when diving at the last. You can now back him at 8-1 on ante-post terms if you believe he remains Cullentra’s No 1 Triumph Hurdle hope.

However, his defeat here signalled that his trainer might revert to his original plan of running both juveniles in this race – and so Elliott has since announced. Against this decision was his reasoning, albeit when both were riding high, that the Supreme on the Old Course might suit the speedy Pied Piper better.

Whatever, the horse who’s now presenting the best betting opportunity in the Triumph to my mind is surely third-placed Il Etait Temps.

He was making his hurdling debut in this Grade One event – a tough gig – and he jumped like it in the early stages, lacking fluency at the first and ballooning the next. He also looked green, wandering about in the high wind, when he was asked to make progress approaching two out but finished off so strongly that he sailed past the winner not long after the line with rider Danny Mullins unable to slow him down when seeking to congratulate Townend.

I think there’s zero chance Mullins will attempt quickly to qualify him for the Boodles Fred Winter – it’d be tight getting two runs in and he shapes as though he might be a genuine Grade One horse. Much more likely that he’s chucked into the Triumph (plus other Grade Ones at Aintree and/or Punchestown) to sink or swim – a characteristic play from his trainer, with Burning Victory, Haut En Couleurs and Tax For Max all recent examples of this policy.

If Il Etait Temps wins a Grade One this season, happy days. If he remains a novice, he can go for the Supreme next year. There’s a slight chance that Mullins waits for Aintree or Punchestown, but Closutton is a highly Cheltenham-centric operation that works on the basis that if they’re fit and well, they get on the boat.

Il Etait Temps also shaped as though he’d benefit from a greater test of stamina, as befits a son of Jukebox Jury. Plus, with Iceo and Interne De Sivola torched and Pied Piper still potentially heading Supreme-wards, the Triumph Hurdle might not muster much of a field.

Knight Salute, (whom I rate as best of British and therefore booked for fourth), Porticello and Doctor Parnassus (trimmed after jumping well and winning over 2m3f at Taunton on Monday) can be included, but there may be little else – albeit Kempton’s Adonis Hurdle is yet to be run.

All things considered, I’m really keen on backing Il Etait Temps each-way at what seems to me a rather inflated 20-1.

Back in fourth, The Tide Turns looks like a prime Fred Winter candidate. He was a little keen early on and his jumping a shade scrappy in the mid-part of the race, but he stuck on well enough at the one pace. He needs to run just once more to qualify for a mark. Doubtless, the Elliott team will also have other, less obvious candidates for that task, however.

Icare Allen – stablemate of the winner and who made an encouraging debut at the same track over Christmas in a race that often supplies a smart juvenile – jumped poorly on the whole. One of his better leaps two out provided Mark Walsh with the chance to challenge between Fil Dor and Vauban, but they surged away from him again and his last-flight error whilst weakening was entirely predictable. He could be Fred Winter-bound now, but his jumping remains a concern.

Ben Siegel, who hadn’t been sighted since November, failed to build on his winning debut and might have jumped more markedly right but for being kept inside horses in the rail by Sean Flanagan.

All three mares looked out of their depth, albeit Vadaly was making her debut in Ireland for Mullins after almost six months off the track and Scenic Look was allowed to lose her prominent position the instant that she made an error and was headed two out.

Advised 26/04/21: Energumene at 14/1 (general) for the Ryanair Chase

Advised 10/11/21: Nube Negra each-way at 25/1 with Bet365 for the Champion Chase

Advised 30/12/21: Galvin at 6/1 (general) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Advised 06/01/22: Telmesomethinggirl at 13/2 with Bet365 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

Advised 06/01/22: Burning Victory at 16/1 with Paddy Power for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

Advised 13/01/22: Hollow Games at 8/1 (with various firms) for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Advised 13/01/22: Dinoblue at 8/1 (general) for the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Advised 20/01/22: Galopin Des Champs at 8/1 for the Turners Novices’ Chase

Advised 04/02/22: Klassical Dream at 5/1 NRNB (various) for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle

_Back now: Il Etait Temps at 20/1 each-way with Bet 365 for the JCB Triumph Hurdle (16/1 more widely also acceptable) _

30/12/21: Al Boum Photo at 16/1 (general) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup