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Racing tips from Dave Nevison for Wednesday: Rock solid chance at Kempton

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Wed 18 Nov 2020

Top tipster Dave Nevison has a couple of fancies over jumps at Warwick on Wednesday plus another on the Flat at Kempton.

12.55 Warwick: Arian at a general 11-8

Looks a very solid favourite in a modest mares’ handicap and should not have a problem following up her Newton Abbot success last month, when she was making her seasonal debut.

She would have won her final start last season in very good style, too, but for falling at the last when seven lengths clear. That was her last outing for John Flint and she was on a 6lb higher mark for her debut for Philip Hobbs last time but she took it in her stride and won a 0-125 handicap with much more in hand than the three-and-a-half-length margin suggests.

She looks much improved and I would be surprised if a 7lb hike was enough to stop her here.

3.15 Warwick: Potters Legend at a general 12-1

I like a veterans’ chase, but by definition it is usually tough to find a horse with any secrets or angles that might put him or her ahead of his rivals.

It is usually a case of trying to find the one that is declining less quickly than the handicapper thinks.

Potters Legend has always made the odd mistake, but has run consistently well for most of his career and has lately been dropped a few pounds by the handicapper.

His trainer, Lucy Wadham, has her string in excellent form and I am banking on a wind op helping him. If so, he will represent good value here.

7.25 Kempton: Rock Eagle at a general 11-4

It's possible that Rock Eagle could be caught in the zone between high-class handicapper and Group-class performer, but has dropped to a mark of 99 for his All-weather debut and is the only horse in this field who might be well-in.

He ran a really good race to finish fifth in the Cesarewitch last time, so to be dropped for that effort was generous. His previous run against Trueshan and Ranch Hand at Salisbury could have him rated a few pounds higher and if he takes to the surface I expect him to score.

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