Rachel Candelora has generated a £21.28 profit based on £1 level-stake bets since May 1 from 59 tips at a strike-rate of 32.20%. She has four bets on Wednesday, three of which are on the stellar card at Deauville.
It is Assumption Day in France which, as well as being a significant religious holiday, also means a huge day of racing and there are 22 meetings being staged in France (on the flat, over jumps, and trotting) with the most significant card being held at Deauville.
A mid-week card which draws the likes of a French Derby winner and a Breeders’ Cup turf winner is hugely significant and therefore that is where I am mostly going to concentrate today.
The Prix Guillaume D’Ornano may be a Group Two in name but if you look at the contenders it is a Group One contest in quality.
This is a race that France Galop want to make into a Group One and it is effectively at the highest level, given this is a race with no penalties – hence the Prix de Jockey Club winner Study Of Man races here off level weights.
Not surprisingly therefore this has, in recent years, become a stepping stone race to the autumn campaigns of several French Derby winners and has been won recently by the likes of New Bay (2015) and Almanzor (2016).
It will be disappointing if Study Of Man is not able to continue the trend and his trainer Pascal Bary won this race himself in 2003 with Kalabar. The 5-6 available seems more than fair given his opposition and the race conditions.
Anyone who follows French racing knows that this has been a difficult year for French maestro-trainer Andre Fabre. Many of his horses were under a cloud during the spring, particularly those housed in the part of his yard dedicated to his Godolphin-owned inmates.
In the last month or so the Fabre yard has emphatically turned the corner, and many of his high-profile horses have remarkably little mileage on the clock so far in 2018.
Fabre has sent out the winner of this race a record five times and many will be drawn to his Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Talismanic but, in his first run since bombing at Meydan in March this may well be a prep run for future autumn engagements.
At the prices I am drawn to the other Godolphin-owned son of Medaglia d’Oro in the field, Wren’s Day, for whom this is a major trial to see where he sits in the autumn campaign.
His four-length runner-up effort behind what we can assume to be Cracksman in his pomp in the Group One Prix Ganay back in April (ahead of the likes of Cloth of Stars, Rhododendron, and Finche) suggests he is up to winning in the big league.
The Prix de la Vallee D’Auge may have only Listed status but this is one of France’s most significant two-year-old sprints and can be compared with Doncaster’s Flying Childers.
Over the last decade or so there have been very few French trainers who have specialised with speedy two-year-olds, but Matthieu Palussiere is carving out a niche for himself doing just that.
Quite rightly there is a really strong British presence in this race, but the most interesting horse for me is the Palussiere-trained dual-claiming winner Pardon My French.
The trainer has not concealed from the French media the high regard in which he holds this son of Kodiac, with six runners still in the field he looks a solid each-way bet.
I am slightly worried about tipping anything at Kempton after they had their mid-summer break as the times of the races on their comeback last week would indicate that the track was dead – the average times for decent races were about five seconds slower than standard.
One horse that I am less worried about handling the conditions is Quiet Endeavour, who has put three consecutive victories together, two at Chelmsford which boasts a similar deep track as Kempton.
This son of Society Rock really has impressed in his last three runs, so much so, that trainer Archie Watson has stated that the big sales race in Ireland in September is his main aim. The All-Weather Championships are slated for him after that.
The trainer compared him to his stable star Corinthia Knight, saying that he has more scope than him. So Watson has found a really good, small field, nursery for this colt to run in, looking for a fourth consecutive victory.
He has drawn stall one, he makes all when he wins, he is 4lbs well off for what the handicapper will put him up in the future, and his main danger in the market is a maiden. With all of that in mind, 11-8 does not look short at all.
Rachel Candelora's Wednesday best bets: