We get used to Aidan O’Brien routinely dominating the biggest races, but he has certainly not had things all his own way in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Galileo (2001), Hurricane Run (2006), Dylan Thomas (2007) and Highland Reel (2016) have all hit the target for the serial champion trainer in the Ascot showpiece but his past 22 runners in the race have all been beaten. They include three favourites since 2021 in Love and Auguste Rodin (twice).
What is also surprising is that the 11-time Derby-winning trainer has struck with just one three-year-old colt in the shape of Galileo.
He will seek to put that right on Saturday via Benvenuto Cellini, the Irish Derby winner, who is a general 3-1 chance to emulate Galileo a quarter of a century later.
This will be the day we find out just how good the colt with a seductively huge stride is. He is one of seven Group One winners in the line-up and faces top-class older rivals from around the globe.
It’s a race where you need to be ticking all the boxes and his recent fidgety starts cast a shadow.
All bar one of his rivals was quicker than 20mph than him in the Derby, when he had sweated up before the start (on a foul day when it last properly rained in the South East) and been late to load. He was controversially deemed a non-runner that day.
The Frankel colt was also last to load and lacked some gate speed at The Curragh last time when slowest through furlongs one and two.
Ryan Moore dashed him up three places in the third furlong courtesy of a “fast” 11.60sec split; helped by the other runners also being slow to get going in the initial stages.
Pedestrian starts have been a feature in races contested by Benvenuto Cellini.
He and his four rivals went very steady in the first two furlongs of the Chester Vase (all bar Proposition registered “very slow” furlongs), while the first five furlongs of the KPMG Champion Juvenile Stakes last season also featured a sea of blue (slow) sectionals.
That had also been the case when Benvenuto Cellini lost his maiden tag at Killarney just over a year ago, when they crawled until after halfway.
The only time he's been exposed to a strong early gallop was at Epsom, when he floundered. That was attributed to the testing ground, although as a two-year-old he ran mostly on easy going or worse.
How he copes with likely stronger early fractions on Saturday will be crucial, as he will surely not be able to give some exceptional older rivals a head start and positional advantage.
Four of them are rated superior to him – Calandagan (130), Masquerade Ball (128), Minnie Hauk (123) and Kalpana (120) – while Goliath (119) is rated his equal.
Action, also trained by O’Brien, is in the race to set an even tempo for his stablemates, although he’s not a natural in this role because he is unpredictable from the gates. His 0-20 mph speeds throw up a bit of everything. He and Benvenuto Cellini are drawn widest of all in gates 8 and 9.
Kalpana has been fastest to 20mph in three of her races and second fastest in three others, while Minnie Hauk has been swiftest to 20mph in four of her starts and second fastest in three others. Lambourn, the 2025 Derby winner, is another consistently quick from the gates.
The RaceiQ pace map shows where the runners might be after a couple of furlongs based on their previous performances. There is no data for the Japanese challengers but it is likely both will sit off the early gallop
Expect this trio to again break well and grab good early positions behind Action, assuming he remembers his role.
I’d imagine Moore will want to sit somewhere near the pace, or at least be mid-division.
Sitting out the back with Calandagan and Masquerade Ball, who both have great acceleration, would be playing with fire. That pair had a fabulous tussle in the Japan Cup after coming from off the pace and their rematch is one to savour.
Calandagan’s overall RaceiQ numbers stand close inspection and he has a formidable record at Ascot, having won a King Edward VII Stakes, King George and Champion Stakes (beating Ombudsman) at the track. Ditto Kalpana, who chased him home 12 months ago and makes each-way appeal.
Benvenuto Cellini flashed big figures at Chester and at The Curragh. But Ascot’s shortish straight will ask a new question of him, especially if he does dither early on.
The finish of the £2 million feature is likely to be one to savour. And the start will make for compelling viewing, too.
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