RaceiQ hints and tips: one more after 5-2 winner!

Obelix put up a stunning performance when winning a competitive 7f handicap at York last month and looks overpriced to repeat the dose in the TPT Fire Handicap (3.00) at Newbury on Saturday.

The Julie Camacho-trained five-year-old was still last of the 15 runners with two furlongs to run on the Knavesmire, but swept past all the opposition to eventually win going away by a length and a half.

He zoomed through the penultimate furlong in just over 11 seconds, which was far quicker than anything else in the field, and was the only horse to dip under 12 seconds in the final furlong despite meeting some trouble.

Obelix was more than a second quicker than the runner-up, Physique, through the final two furlongs and his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 103.62% underlined his power-packed finish. The next best in the field was 101.48%.

This was not a case of the runners going crazy fractions and teeing things up for one ridden more conservatively. In such instances, the majority of the runners have an FSP of 95% or lower, which was not what happened. 

The winning time was 1.37sec quicker than par and it’s worth remembering how hard it can be to pounce from off the pace at the flat and speed-favouring York, especially on quick ground. Indeed, four winners on the same card made all the running.

Obelix has usually raced over a mile or further during his career and was having a rare start over 7f that day, having also had a wind op. He was clearly well served dropping back in trip, and perhaps being able to breathe a little easier.

Dubai Treasure, who finished fourth, gave a nod to the form when subsequently winning at Glorious Goodwood.

Obelix failed to reproduce that running when dropped out from a wide draw over an extended mile at Wolverhampton last time, but he was keen in a race run at slower fractions, and where it paid to race handily. All in all, it was something of a non-event for him.

The one niggle is that there are no habitual trail-blazers in the line-up, although Wolf Of Badenoch has made the running in two of his past three starts, while Classic made all at a fair clip on his penultimate start at Sandown. Granted anything but a muddling gallop, Obelix, a general 14-1 in the early betting, has prospects of reprising what he did at York. 

The Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap at Newmarket (2.05pm) is always a great sight, with Binhareer a short-priced favourite after being a convincing winner at Ayr last time, when dropped to 6f for the first time.

However, RaceiQ adjudged his time as nothing more than “par” and he has gone up 8lb in the ratings, plus is unproven away from softish ground. He also wore ear plugs last time, so perhaps can be edgy.

It may be worth taking him on with Addison Grey, who is similarly unexposed and came from off the pace when a close third at Chepstow last time.

He clocked 43.77mph in the second furlong that day and was quicker than all bar the runner-up through the final two furlongs.

Only one of the 14 runners in the race was slower than him to reach 20mph, which clearly did not help his chances, especially at Chepstow where you can rarely miss a beat.

He had been much quicker out of the gates in his previous races, so that was probably a blip, and his jockey, Jack Nicholls, is just one winner away from losing his 7lb claim.