2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: big-race guide and tip

Age: 5 Draw: 13 Trainer: Henk Grewe Odds : 100-1

This strong chestnut has kept good company in Germany in three starts this term, shaping as if wanting further than 1m4f on the first two of those but he disappointed under more forward tactics in a slightly messy Grosser Preiss von Baden last time when he was additionally keen off a modest gallop.

This big field should cater for the return of more patient tactics once again and he should be sticking on at the end, though the evidence so far suggests that it will be at a modest distance given this may not be enough of a test for him from an unfavourable draw before the question of class comes into the equation. All the same, he makes the most appeal of the outsiders at the very big prices.

Age: 4 Draw: 4 Trainer: Adrien Fouassier Odds : 150-1

This is quite the spot to make your Group One debut (only runner in this field yet to run at the top level) and he has shown his best form on deep ground and he will not get those conditions here (three of his four wins have been on ground described as Very Soft or Heavy).

For all his return last time was a run with a view to autumn targets, he didn’t shape with obvious promise in fairly weak company in the context of this race when finishing three lengths behind Jack Darcy, rated 112 for Paul and Oliver Cole in Britain.

Age: 4 Draw: 9 Trainer: Fabrice Chappet Odds : 40-1

The Group One winner made some modest late headway to finish 10th last year in a race where not many got into it in driving rain on deep ground and conditions this time promise to be more suitable.

There is further optimism afer a really pleasing return in the Prix Jacques le Marois on his belated return, travelling notably well before coming off the bridle late on and then sticking on quite nicely to finish just three and a half lengths behind Inspiral in fourth. However, although he travelled quite well in the Irish Champion Stakes last time his effort in the straight was poor and it's off-putting that he ran much better at Leopardstown last year.

He's hard to genuinely fancy on the back of that, but if he confirms something like the Deauville impression at this more suitable distance he's another that could outrun his odds.

Age: 4 Draw: 15 Trainer: Stephane Wattel Odds : 25-1

Second in the Prix Ganay earlier in the season with Bay Bridge just behind in third, he has looked better back up to his optimum trip of 1m4f on his last two starts, firstly when coasting home in Group Two company at Chantilly in June before striking in the Group One Grosser Preiss von Baden next time and in a manner more commanding than the ¾-length margin at the line suggests, travelling best and hitting the front pretty easily a furlong from home.

He's coming into this after two visually good wins and he’s in decent form, while he travels quite nicely and shouldn't be too far off the pace. He should enjoy ther nature of this test, though his form is not as compelling as the principals here and his widest draw in 15 is a significant negative.

Age: 5 Draw: 6 Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Odds : 14-1

Last year's Champion Stakes winner hasn't quite hit the heights so far this term but he does tend to come good at this time of year (bar his two-year-old debut, now 3-3 in October) and he's unexposed at this 1m4f distance.

In truth he's been a bit too keen for his own good all season, firstly when third in the Prix Ganay and then when once again travelling best in the Tattersalls Gold Cup when second behind Luxembourg. He travelled quite well at Royal Ascot in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes but he flatted out a bit late on.

He enjoyed the drop in grade and an easier surface in the September Stakes last time, a Group Three race which has a decent roll of honour and one that Enable featured in more than once before her Arc bids. That first success since his Champion Stakes win will do no harm and an Arc that doesn't look a stern test at the trip - at least on paper - should suit him. While the bare form of Kempton is nothing to write home about, there is a chance he could be coming to the boil at just the right time and he could go quite nicely here from a good draw.

Age: 4 Draw: 1 Trainer: Ralph Beckett Odds : 15-2

This strong finisher has looked an improved model this year and has hopes of improving on last year's sixth-place finish from a cracking draw.

He was no match for the world-class Equinox in Dubai in March but he finished off really nicely after running keen early on and, with the beneft of ever-trusty hindsight, the fast downhill finish of a Coronation Cup at a track like Epsom was unlikely to see him to best effect subsequently but he again finished really well after having no answer to Emily Upjohn's turn of foot at the top of the straight.

His win at short odds at Saint-Cloud has been boosted by the strong-travelling runner-up landing Group One honours in Germany next time (beating Mr Hollywood there) and another strong finish underlined the fact that his chances will be best served by a strong test at this trip. That looks far from certain and hopefully he can race more amenably too in the event of a slower gallop, but there's lots to like otherwise and he surely has strong place credentials at least.

Age: 5 Draw: 14 Trainer: Owen Burrows Odds : 6-1

He has a very compelling profile for this but his draw is undoutedly a blow to his chances.

Hukum cruelly suffered an injury setback after travelling oh-so well to win the Coronation Cup last year in a then career-best, but the admirable five-year-old has made good for his enforced absence with two wins from two starts since and looking better than ever on both occasions.

He didn’t get an ideal passage when beating Desert Crown in a sparkling performance in the Brigadier Gerard, while he also travelled best at Ascot before rolling up his sleeves to come out on top in a brawling battle with Westover - a customarily strong finisher - in a highly-anticipated King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Hukum certainly looks to have got quicker with age and his versatility here – he will see out a strongly-run 1m4f while this strong traveller also has the turn of foot to deal with a quicker set-up - makes appeal with his experience an additional asset. Along with the fact that he's posted his best efforts on his last two runs, the elder statesman is still a serious contender even if his poor draw must temper enthusiasm somewhat.

Age: 4 Draw: 11 Trainer: Andre Fabre Odds : 25-1

This Group One winner came from a pretty remarkable position to beat Nashwa in the Prix de l’Opera in testing ground here on her final start of last season and she has continued in good form this term.

Stamina looked her forte there and she ran better than the finishing position suggested in the Prix Ganay over shorter earlier this year when a bit further back than ideal (albeit not as far back as the winner Iresine) and just flattening out late on.

They tottered around in the Prix Foy in what was not a strong test for her first try at 1m4f and she was all out to hold off Iresine after getting first run on that rival, but she travelled well and she is unexposed at this distance. She's quite likeable, but the dry forecast all week isn't ideal for her and it's difficult to see her genuinely in the shake-up and from a draw that could have been kinder.

Age: 5 Draw: 5 Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki Odds : 14-1

No horse has got closer to the world’s best turf performer Equinox than this mare did in the Group One Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin last time and, in an Arc that might be run on better ground than usual, she looks one of the more interesting ones at double-figure prices for a nation that has repeatedly proven its prowess on the international stage in recent years.

Through Seven Seas is the only representative for Japan this time and the way she closed to the line last time after suffering late interference in a big field bodes well for this contest. She went off at a big price for that latest run and it was her 12th start - can she really be making big strides now as a five-year-old? - but it's feasible that she is unexposed at this trip and it's difficult to genuinely discount her.

Connections have made positive noises and the better ground than usual for the race this year undoutedbly looks a boon to her chance, as does a lovely draw in stall 5.

Age: 5 Draw: 3 Trainer: John and Thady Gosden Odds : 22-1

The mare looks one of the more intriguing ones at bigger prices.

She looked a Group One winner in waiting after a remarkable success in the Lancashire Oaks over a year ago and, after an enforced injury lay-off, she returned with a fine success in the Middleton Stakes at York over a very steadily-run 10 furlongs – very much a minimum for her – and in a race which has worked out fantastically well.

She may have still have been feeling the effects of her big effort and on ground quicker than ideal in the Hardwicke Stakes next time, but she still ran on under tentative handling quite nicely and she wasn’t seen to best effect on bottomless ground over 1m6f at Goodwood afterwards.

She again found well at the end of the Yorkshire Oaks when just repelled at the line by a subsequent Group One winner who got first run and Free Wind was around two and a half lengths quicker in the final half-mile according to the sectional data.

The stable has a fine record in this race but, while she's clearly not an Enable, the switch back to easier ground will suit and she has place prospects at decent odds from a very nice draw under Frankie Dettori in ther legendary rider's 33rd and final Arc.

Age: 3 Draw: 10 Trainer: Henk Grewe Odds : 50-1

One of the more lightly-raced contenders here with just five previous starts, he is versatile in terms of ground and he was only behind Fantastic Moon – the subsequent Prix Niel winner – in the Deutsches Derby in July before just getting pipped by Zagrey last time in the Grosser Preis von Baden. That horse had previously shaped well behind Westover at Saint Cloud.

It all looks fair enough on paper and he's worth his chance for a nation that has a rich history in the Arc, though it's worth pointing out that Mr Hollywood got the run of things in the Grosser Preis von Baden and the feeling is that more of stamina test at this trip would suit.

Age: 3 Draw: 2 Trainer: Pascal Bary Odds : 10-1

He only has four ahead of him in the betting here and he ran ok in the Prix du Jockey Club earlier this season but ultimately had no answer to Ace Impact while additionally fading in the closing stages of that Classic assignment.

He's looked better up in trip since then though, notably with a visually brilliant Grand Prix de Paris triumph when zig-zagging his way through the field from last to first on his first start at 1m4f in a ready victory at the line from Adelaide River.

The Prix Niel last time was a prep for this and that trial wasn't run to suit given he races patiently at the back of the field, but he picked up quite nicely albeit from a position too far back to overhaul the winner Fantastic Moon. His patient tactics in a race like an Arc are a bit of a niggle though - especially one that may be a relative dash forn home - and the overall weight of his form doesn't look so compelling given his fairly short price. He has a very favourable draw, though, and his trainer - searching for a first Arc winner - has sounded confident noises in the build-up.

Age: 3 Draw 8 Trainer: Jean-Claude Rouget Odds : 10-3

Unbeaten in five starts, he looks top-class given the last-to-first running style that exhibits his potent turn of foot and in top-level races this term which have worked out well to boot.

He truly announced himself in the Prix du Jockey Club with a scintailliating performance when running down genuine Group One performer Big Rock in a race where the pace generally held up and, while not as visually impressive next time, he similarly overcame a positional disadvantage when not fully tuned up to land the hugely valuable Prix Guillaume D'Ornano on his return.

He's the most exciting runner in the line-up and probably deserves to be favourite in receipt of weight and after a perfect French-style prep, but this strong traveller is yet to race against older horses - who may not come back to him as easily on the front end here - while he has also looked particularly potent at 10 furlongs and the 12 furlongs in the cauldron of an Arc is something that is unproven at this stage.

However, the decent ground and not an abundance of pace in this race on paper should suit, and he has shown he can stay on at the finish in his races like at Bordeaux on his seasonal return. His stamina looks less of a pertinent question given the potential set-up of this particular Arc and, even if he's not flawless here, we simply don't know quite how good he is yet and his draw here is perfectly decent.

Age: 3 Draw 12 Trainer: Sarah Steinberg Odds : 12-1

The lightly-raced Deutsches Derby and Prix Niel winner wants decent ground and has been added to the field as a late supplementary entry - at a cost of €120,000 - given the favourable forecast in Paris this week.

That's a statement of intent and one that shouldn't be taken lightly for a contender that is unbeaten in both starts at a mile and a half and one that stayed on pleasingly to win over course and distance on Arc trials day last time. He has looked at his best when ridden more conservatively over that trip and, even if this race lacks obvious pace angles on paper, he should be able to get cover in what looks a favourable set-up for him.

A four-time winner from six starts, his worst finishing position is third on his return this year on heavy ground and his second to Nations Pride in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis in late July - Germany's premier 10f contest - was with the caveat of being off the pace in a race that was a dash for home won by the all-the-way victor.

He looks one of the stronger contenders here with the additional promise of potentially a bit more to come, even if his draw isn't ideal.

Age: 3 Draw: 7 Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Odds : 6-1

This Classic winner has really improved throughout the season, although he did go better than the finishing position suggested on his second start of the campaign when eighth in the Prix de Jockey Club, using up early gas to get a prominent position at Chantilly and being eased off in the final furlong when he didn't pick up as expected.

He hit the line strongly up at 1m4f for the first time behind King Of Steel at Royal Ascot and he underlined that strong-finishing habit and in style in the Great Voltigeur at York before his career-best in a competitive St Leger last time which, in truth, he won pretty easily.

This is clearly tougher, but he looks to be getting better and while the Arc was not a long-term target trainer Aidan O'Brien said immediately in his post-race interview at Doncaster that this would be a strong possibility. There's always the niggle that this comes too soon, but he's won his last two starts fairly readily and, while competitive, this doesn't look an especially deep nor stamina-sapping Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

He's done better than OK with the draw and top connections will be hoping to recoup the big supplementary fee, even if he looks a bit short in the betting for punting purposes.

A smaller than average field of 15 line up for this year's race (only seven renewals with less runners this century) and the principal protaganists have mostly been well served by the draw. That is important, even with this slightly smaller line-up than usual.

In the 22 Arcs this century with at least 10 runners, horses drawn 1-6 have finished in the first five 39 percent of the time while horses drawn 10 or higher have done so 26 per cent of the time.

A high draw is not necessarily a death knell for Hukum - my fairly strong fancy before the starting positions were allocated - but it certainly makes his task harder with just 14 horses this century drawn 14 or higher (17 per cent) getting into the first five. Connections will draw hope from the fact that Dalakhani and Golden Horn - the latter on similarly decent ground and under a masterful ride - both won the Arc from stall 14 this century. I think he can still do it, but the draw tempers enthusiasm and I'll sit tight for now and look to back him in the event he drifts a little further closer to race time.

You would want to try and be against Ace Impact at a short price in a more typical Arc, but his form has looked good this year and in a race that doesn't promise to be a stern test at the trip and on better ground than usual he could have a nice set-up here in receipt of weight and from a perfectly feasible draw.

Both horses are fancied to get into in the places, and I think FREE WIND can get there too from a great draw in stall 3 in Frankie Dettori's 33rd and final Arc. She stays 1m6f but this mare has speed and, even if she's hard to strongly fancy for win purposes, she looks a little underestimated at 22-1 in a good but not vintage renewal.

Westover has a lovely draw and can't be far away on his King George form and a commendable body of work this season but he can take a grip and I would be keener on him if there was some more obvious pace here.

I didn't expect to put him up but BAY BRIDGE - again another keen goer - gets the nod at 14s since he looks a few points too big. This ground should be ideal, he has a nice draw in 6 and he could be coming to the boil at just the right time. This doesn't shape up to be a searching test at the trip and it might just be feasible that this horse has been wanting a mile and a half all along. At the prices it looks worth paying the chance to find out.