Preakness Stakes: Rachel Candelora's runner-by-runner guide and tips

The connections of this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, have taken the Triple Crown bid off the table with him training up to the Belmont Stakes in another three weeks’ time. 

His defection leaves a nine strong field with a combination of some Derby runners and new shooters.  

Here's a runner-by-runner guide to the second jewel of the American Triple Crown – the 150th Preakness Stakes. 

Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled a record 8 Preakness winners, is putting all his chips down on a lightly raced, unexposed son of Not This Time in this year’s race. Goal Oriented did not make his debut until last month when he won a Santa Anita maiden over 6f before shipping to Churchill Downs to make all impressively to win, in the slop, on the Kentucky Derby undercard as the heavily backed favourite. 

Off the back of that performance over an extended mile, Bob Baffert and his owners decided that Goal Oriented would be going to Baltimore. The two -week turnaround off the back of a freak performance, for any other trainer would be worrying, but of Baffert’s eight Preakness winners, seven went to Baltimore on a two-week turnaround. He has quick early speed and gate one will force Flavien Prat hand, having to go forward out of the gate.  

When Journalism was confirmed as a Preakness starter last weekend the Kentucky Derby runner-up became the headline attraction. This son of Curlin, winner of the 2007 Preakness, ran really well in the Derby, when sent off favourite, overcoming a rough start to put in a sustained drive to take a brief lead in the early stretch before being outstayed by Sovereignty, but then gamely held second over the fast finishing Baeza. Journalism will attempt a similar stalking trip in the Preakness, which should be less troubled in a smaller field, and the small cutback in distance  should help him. 

The main question with him is whether the two-week turnaround from a particularly tough Derby to the Preakness proves to take more of a toll than expected. His trainer Mike McCarthy, who trained Rombauer to win the 2021 Preakness, left his participation decision to the last minute going back to Churchill Downs where Journalism has been since the Derby and watching him work in person before making travel plans to Baltimore, however his quest for a second Preakness triumph will encounter challenges from five Hall of Fame trainers with 18 victories in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown amongst them. 

The 17-hand son of Triple Crown Winner Justify looks to give the legendary 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas back-to-back Preakness winners, having won with Seize The Grey last year, and an overall eighth Preakness winner all told. 

American Promise finished a disappointing 16th in the Derby where he sat up with the fast early pace before backing out of contention tamely, finishing 38 ½ lengths behind the winner. D. Wayne Lukas said that given he is such a big horse he cannot get shut down and start again, which is what happened in the Derby and therefore he was just allowed to come home in his own time. Obviously American Promise is better than his Derby performance and a rebound effort back to the level that he was when winning the Virgina Derby by 7 ¾ lengths at Colonial Downs could put him in the mix at Pimlico. 

It is also worth remembering that three of Lukas’ seven Preakness wins came after less than satisfying finishes at Churchill Downs. Jockey Nik Juarez has the added benefit of going home for the Preakness as he was born 25 minutes north of Pimlico and his entire family is steeped in Maryland racing and he will have their support on hand as his father drives the vet truck and his mother will be ponying horses. American Promise is another pace horses that is drawn inside and the last two Preakness winners that Lukas had, Seize the Grey (2024) and Oxbow (2013) both made all.  

A rare international runner in the Preakness representing UK-based trainer Jamie Osborne and bringing in Middle East form from Dubai. This son of Honor A.P has two wins on dirt, both at Meydan over 1 mile this past winter, and comes here off the back of a rallying nose runner-up finish in the Grade Two UAE Derby over the Preakness distance. 

The worrying fact about this form line is that the winner of the UAE Derby was Admiral Daytona who finished last in the Kentucky Derby. He is a gritty stalker who should get some early pace to run at, but this race is much tougher than anything he has faced so far. However, Jamie Osborne is no stranger to switching up dirt codes from the UAE to the US having campaigned Toast Of New York, who won the UAE Derby, to a finish second in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic.  

The local equine hope, who has made all eight of his starts in the Mid-Atlantic region, and comes here off the back of two straight stakes wins in the Private Terms Stakes  and the Federico Tesio Stakes  at Laurel Park, relishing the added distance each time he ran. The Federico Tesio Stakes is the “win and you’re in” for the Preakness, however since 2000 these winners have gone 0-14 in this Classic. While this horse has been in top form all year this is a huge step up in grade from what he has been facing, and while he is the “local” horse, like all of his rivals, he has never actually raced at Pimlico. This will be 60-year-old trainer Mike Gorham’s first Triple Crown runner.  

Although River Thames had earned enough points to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby with a third in the Blue Grass Stakes and a neck second to Sovereignty in the Fountain Of Youth, his connections opted to skip the Derby and point to the Preakness. At the time of that decision the same connections had Florida Derby winner Tappan Street in the Derby before injury forced him out of the race. 

Even still, this son of Maclean’s Music, bids to give Hall of Fame Trainer Todd Pletcher his first win in the Preakness, although this is the leg of the Triple Crown that Pletcher does not usually target as River Thames will become only his 11th contender. 

The major form line for River Thames is his neck second to subsequent Derby winner Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, however when he plugged on into third in the Bluegrass Stakes, in his final prep, he was not making up any ground which suggests that the added distance of the Preakness is a real worry.  

This $1.2 million son of Tapit was well backed into second favouritism in the Derby before checking in an uninspired seventh, seemingly hating the kickback before plugging on without making up any real ground. For trainer Mark Casse, who won the Preakness in 2019 with War Of Will, this race was not on Sandman’s radar, but once Sovereignty, Derby third Baeza, and the top-class Rodriguez all swerved the Preakness, Casse decided to give the big grey a go. 

While Sandman is only one of two Grade One winners in the field, his late run style is not how a modern-day Preakness is won and Pimlico is traditionally a speed favoring racetrack. Due to the late decision to run Sandman his regular jockey Jose Ortiz had already committed to Preakness rival Clever Again so super sub and Preakness winning jockey John Velazquez gets aboard for the first time.  

This son of the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is coming into the Preakness as a legitimate new shooter for whom this race has been the plan, not an afterthought. 

Trained by two-time Preakness winner Steve Asmussen, Clever Again is lightly raced having finished 2nd on debut over 4 ½f as a 2yo behind a subsequent stakes winner. He then missed 10 months before returning with two impressive wins in an Oaklawn maiden and then in the Hot Spring Stakes over a mile. 

In that stakes performance he romped home by four lengths beating the Bob Baffert-trained Grade One winner Gaming. Clever Again made all the running in the Oaklawn wins, pulling away decisively at the end. His connections believe that he can carry his speed over a long distance and the added trip of this Classic should suit as his Coolmore owned dam Flattering, a daughter of Galileo, was a Group Three mile-and-a-half winner in Ireland for Aiden O’Brien and is the full sister to Epsom Oaks winner Love. 

The longstanding Steve Asmussen owner Ron Winchell bought this colt for $500,000 but Coolmore has retained an interest and in the Preakness he will be running in the colours of Derek Smith. 

In his final piece of work Asmussen worked him sitting off a stablemate to see if he could settle which he did well, and the trainer is thrilled with his post position of 8 as it allows his jockey ever opportunity to get a good position. It is also a positive that Preakness winning jockey Jose Ortiz has kept his commitment to Clever Again even after the connections of Sandman decided to run.  

This son of Nyquist is named after obscure big-league baseball player Jim Gosger who played for six different teams in the ‘60’s and ‘70’s. 

Gosger, the horse, did not develop quick enough to qualify for the Kentucky Derby and therefore the Preakness became the long-term plan. He broke his maiden over a mile at Gulfstream Park before jumping into stakes competition for the first time in the Grade Three Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. 

A stalking, powerhouse performance saw him win and he comes into the Preakness off the back of several good works. With his Grade Three win he is only one of three graded stakes winners in this year’s renewal of the Preakness. 

The step up in trip by a furlong should suit as his dam is a half-sister to the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another. The outside stall is a positive for his runstyle, however he has the same tactics as several other rivals and therefore he may get shuffled back early.  

Two weeks ago, American racing fans were excited at the prospect of a classic, old-school Kentucky Derby and it did not disappoint with the cream very much rising to the top. However, with the defection of the Derby winner and third from the Preakness, this year’s second Jewel of the Triple Crown has lost some of its luster and amongst the nine-strong field due to break from the gate at “Old Hilltop” only three of them own a graded race success.  

Although I firmly believe that the best horse in the race is Journalism, given the doubts about him coming here off the back of a physically and mentally taxing race for a trainer who has no history of this kind of quick turnaround and his draw in two is probably one of worst draws for him, I cannot justify suggesting him as a bet given his short price.  

As we made a few bucks in the Kentucky Derby, I am trying to find a bit of value in the Preakness and with British bookmakers this has a real feel of an each-way play race given that the favourite is too short and his main market rivals are too big a price.  

The lightly raced new shooter CLEVER AGAIN fits the bill as a legitimate each-way play. He is one of the very few horses in the race for which the Preakness was the main aim and not an afterthought and in Steve Asmussen he has been prepped by one of America’s most successful “target trainers.” Horses who have form at Oaklawn Park have a tremendous record in this race and there was a lot to like about his all-the-way listed race win last time out including a 23.2 second quarter which simply blew away his opposition which included a Grade One winner. He sat in the two-path on that occasion, and I like the fact that he is the outside speed coming out of this starting gate.  

Despite all the uncertainties surrounding JOURNALISM it is extremely difficult to picture a scenario where he is not involved in the finish. It is worth noting that in his last two starts he has found himself in traffic problems (virtually unavoidable last time in the Derby), but given his stalking runstyle, and with a huge horse in the gate to his outside, the likelihood he will once again find himself comprised is high.  

That huge horse AMERICAN PROMISE will be used in third as he didn’t have a race in the Derby, D. Wayne Lukas is a Preakness legend, and he should be on or near the lead right from the get-go. And with only 8 rivals he should be able to use his long stride and get clear, unlike in the Derby. GOSGER can be used in fourth as he may be staying on late and pick up a small piece especially if there is a pace collapse.  

1 #8 Clever Again. 2 #2 Journalism. 3 #3 American Promise. 4 #9 Gosger