Page Fuller of RaceiQ crunches the numbers to reveal a couple of selections for day one of Royal on Tuesday, and a 20-1 chance in the King Charles III Stakes is among her picks.
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The first day of Royal Ascot is always a treat, but for the curtains to rise with a clash like we have in the Queen Anne Stakes (2.30) is rather special.
The first four home in the Lockinge last month all reoppose one another, but it’s one outside that group that has caught my eye for some each-way value.
Sardinian Warrior hit the ground running with an impressive victory over Docklands on his seasonal reappearance, and the latter boosted the form well with a game third at Epsom, having found plenty of trouble in running.
He won the Paradise Stakes in a time of 1m 36.73 seconds, receiving a rating of 9.9 out of 10 on our Time Index. For extra context, it was also far quicker than the 1m 38.04 seconds that the Queen Anne was completed in last year.
They maintained an even gallop throughout the race, and Sardinian Warrior was perfectly positioned just behind the leaders to take the initiative as they folded. His Finishing Speed Percentage of 102.09% highlights that he was able to quicken enough to put the race to bed and maintain that powerfully to the line.
He wasn’t the fastest horse in the race; Docklands achieved a Top Speed of 41.61mph compared to his of only 40.57mph in the penultimate furlong. It didn’t matter, though, as he had already nicked the race by that point.
Disregard his second from last time, as he didn’t quite see out the 1m1f trip in France, and I believe this progressive four-year-old will be making his presence felt here.
An hour later we have the King Charles III Stakes (3.40), with 23 runners hurtling up the five-furlong Ascot straight at well over 40mph, and again I’m looking further down the lists for value.
West Acre was a late starter last season, not appearing on a track until September of last year, but he has made up for lost time landing Group Two and Group Three contests in Meydan through the winter - his Group Two win in January even broke the Meydan track record.
This stiff five furlongs is ideal and he also occupies the most favourable draw in the eyes of our Draw Advantage metric. Based on 10 years’ worth of data, it determines that a horse drawn in stall 23 is likely to have an advantage over the field of around 0.61 lengths.
In contrast, the stall 10 that Asfoora will race from is a hindrance of -0.36 lengths.