Paddy's Pick 5: tips for our free-to-play Boxing Day game

The first leg of Paddy’s Pick 5 is a complex puzzle. Kalashnikov and Shan Blue are talented but are returning from long layoffs. In the case of the former a 648-day absence surely means he’ll improve for this. While in the case of the latter it must be a concern that this free going sort might expend his energy in an inefficient manner. Lostintranslation and Aye Right have looked regressive this season while the Phillip Hobbs pair of Zanza and Sporting John are not to be relied upon. FANION D'ESTRUVAL got detached at an early stage in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, I suspect as a result of the quick ground conditions combined with a bit of inexperience from his jockey. However, he did finish to great effect on his first try over a staying trip. On forecast softer ground I’d expect him to hold a more prominent position in the early stages. If able to do so, he’ll be bang there at the finish.

He’s exceptional. This looks a gimme. He wins this comfortably barring a mishap.

Tornado Flyer sprung a surprise in last year’s renewal after being given the most efficient ride. His eight opponents were ridden too aggressively in the middle part of the race, resulting in a pace collapse. There is every chance the same may happen again this year as those to the head of the market are usually ridden prominently. Millers Bank, who is chalked up at 66-1, has looked to be crying out for this step up in trip, rallying well in the closing stages at Carlisle, when only narrowly failing to concede 12lb to the 148-rated Beauport. He was also doing his best work at the finish of the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time when outpaced most of the way. His jumping is a mild concern but hopefully Johnny Burke can find a good rhythm in the early stages. Officially, he has 15lb to find with the top-rated L’Homme Presse but that rival has jumped to his left at both Ascot and Sandown and certainly didn’t run to anywhere near his mark of 170 on either of those occasions. I’m hoping lightning can strike twice and that a patient ride will once again prove the answer in the Kempton showpiece.

This looks an ideal opportunity for Embittered to gain his first win in more than a year. He’s been highly tried during that barren time, taking on assignments at the Cheltenham, Punchestown and Galway Festivals. His two runs this season have been promising. He travelled well in the Kerry National but didn’t stay the three-mile trip. His last start came at Cork where he finished just a head behind Big Debates, to whom he was conceding 17lb. That rival has since won in easy fashion off a 5lb higher mark, which gives the form a solid look. Rob James is an amateur only by name and is excellent value for his 7lb claim. He can steer Joseph O’Brien’s charge to victory.

Dan Skelton looks to have West Cork well handicapped off a mark of just 140, 2lb below his hurdle mark. He’s jumped proficiently in both his chase starts but has on times jumped slightly to his right, so switching to a right-handed track is certainly a positive. He has good course form here when narrowly beaten in a novice hurdle and is adaptable with regards to the ground. Dan Skelton places his horses exceptionally well and I’m sure this will have been the target for some time. Solo is the likely danger but his jumping lacked fluency last time and he’s unlikely to be gifted the same soft lead that he appeared to relish when winning stylishly at Sandown.