Matt Tombs: Getting an edge in the key races at Cheltenham

By Matt Tombs@thespieler
Sat 17 Nov 2018

Betting expert Matt Tombs, who has written four books and runs a private jumps season tipping service that has been profitable all three seasons, explains the theory behind his invaluable guides for Cheltenham's November Meeting, which you can read in full on

 Splash Of Ginge returns in glory after winning the BetVictor Gold Cup last year (Focusonracing)
Splash Of Ginge returns in glory after winning the BetVictor Gold Cup last year (Focusonracing)

Welcome to what I’m hoping will be the first in a series of digital guides to some of the biggest jumps meetings in Britain and Ireland during the season.

The idea is to produce a more condensed (digitalised) version of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.

Plenty of punters have a good grasp of the nature of many of the Festival races, but far fewer understand the races at meetings like this in the same level of detail.

These guides pick out some of the races which best support an assessment of their inherent nature. In other words, where its worth understanding which types of horses are underbet and overbet before looking at the actual final fields.

Hopefully these guides will give you an insight into the races and help you develop an edge.

Some of the features in Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide appear here, including Key Trends and Predictability Factor.

The Key Trends section includes second generation or Profit and Loss Trends. In other words, trends that have been profitable to follow, not just numerically strong.

That helps identify the underbet horses rather than simply the ones with the typical winning profile, which are often well found in the market.

That crucial difference will hopefully be a big help to you in finding value.
For new readers, Predictability Factor looks at the multiple of the SP and winners’ position in the market to determine which, if any, parts of the market are favoured by the nature of the race.

A new feature is Festival Formlines, which looks at how the form of the race has worked out at the Festival.

Throughout, I’ve used all the renewals this century as a sample, unless stated otherwise, (the 2000 results aren’t included in Festival Formlines as there was no Festival in 2001.)

I love this time of year. The next few weeks provide not just great racing to watch and bet on, but an infinite number of opportunities to develop theories looking ahead on the Road To Cheltenham.

Best of luck for a great weekend’s punting everyone.

Read each of Matt's essential Cheltenham guides:

[Click below for the Steel Plate & Sections Novices’ Chase](

[Click below for the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase](

[Click below for the Novices’ Chase](

[Click below for the BetVictor Gold Cup](

[Click for the Shloer Chase] (

[Click below for the Greatwood Hurdle](

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