Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: Chacun worth another investment

Many of you will be relieved to hear that my new year’s resolution is to drop the political comment from these introductions. I can imagine people’s fingers have, in the past, hovered over the link and wavered before coming down on it. You may even have been breaking the reading habits of generations by doing so. I will therefore repay the trust all of you have placed in both me and in The Road To Cheltenham, the people’s column.

It has been a busy fortnight for those of us who haven’t favoured a £20,000-a-week Mustique holiday villa with our presence or had our chard flattened by unseemly goings-on in the East Finchley Allotments.

The Cabinet Office, for example, has been busy handing out not only handy burgling hacks but also gongs – to the likes of Iain Duncan Smith, for services to undertaking, and even among our own parish, to Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls identically, thereby saving the Queen from any sulky silences around the lunch table at Ascot.

Meanwhile on the track, the action has also been fast and furious. Given the scale of excitements, this edition of The Road To Cheltenham concentrates solely on the open graded-chasing action of the holiday period. The hurdlers will have my undivided attention in the next volume, published later this week, and the novices in a third edition at the weekend.

Consider this binge-reading a shot of perversity: while others are advocating dry January, I’m tempting you to overdose, overdose, overdose: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxRXOowvVhI&feature=youtu.be (skip to 1:09!)

There were two Grade One staying chases over the Christmas period but whereas the Savills Chase posed more questions than it answered, telling us nothing new about several participants, the King George was Baldrick in a bridesmaid’s dress. Like Lord Flashheart, I like something I can hang onto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKfbSHW9uGA

Kempton’s chief exhibit may have involved only five runners, but it was conducted at a sound pace, punctured a couple of reputations, debunked some theories and produced a c.10lb better winning performance than did Leopardstown’s feature event. Those detractors dismissing it as a one-sided affair – and there are a few – are both after-timing and denying a compelling manifestation of top-class sport.

Clan Des Obeaux followed in the footsteps of Halloween, Mandarin, Pendil, Captain Christy, Silver Buck, The Fellow, One Man, See More Business, Kicking King and Silviniaco Conti by winning this Grade One event for the second time. The manner of his victory suggested matching the trio of wins achieved by Wayward Lad might not be beyond him (even though he’s only seven year of age, Desert Orchid’s four is likely to be pushing it and I’m a safe seller on him reaching Kauto Star’s five. We’re in rarefied territory here!).

Kempton showcases the talents of Clan Des Obeaux ideally and his stablemate Cyrname – whom the betting market, official figures and Harry Cobden all preferred – set up the race perfectly, if doubtless not in the manner their usual jockey had envisaged when making his choice.

There had been mixed messages beforehand about how Cyrname would be ridden, with Cobden having mentioned that he hoped to “get a breather or two” whilst making the running whereas Paul Nicholls played down that idea, both in the Racing Post – “it’s definitely not like when we ran Azertyuiop and had to try to ride him to get the trip” – and on Racing TV Extra on the day.

As it turned out, such ruminations were academic. Cobden nudged Cyrname into the bridle at the start of the King George and got an uncharacteristically temperate response. Contrast that with the engaged, enthusiastic reaction from the outset of last month’s Ascot chase in which he famously beat Altior with a faultless show of controlled aggression.

Instead at Kempton, Aso initially made the running prior to being joined and then headed by Cyrname at the fifth fence. From that point until Clan Des Obeaux jumped effortlessly past him two out, Cobden set a sound pace, but not the sort of tempo that previously got the likes of Waiting Patiently, Politologue and Fox Norton – as well as Altior – out of their comfort zone. The winner, and Footpad, were still on his heels four out, meaning that Cyrname had, for whatever reason, neutralised his own prime weaponry. For once, he was a sitting duck.

“I don’t think Cyrname was at his best today,” Nicholls said immediately after his defeat. “I think he ran a bit flat. He never had that normal zip that he has. It’s quite possible that that race the other day took more out of him than we first thought. He’s one of those horses [for whom it’s] a job to gauge at home because he’s so enthusiastic, and the rain may not have helped.”

Given Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville both concluded that Altior was taking longer than projected to recover from his clash with Cyrname, it’s perfectly plausible that the winner recoiled to some extent, too. I have little doubt it took a huge effort for him to win like that at Ascot, even if it didn’t look that way, so it might be the most plausible explanation for his mildly subdued demeanour.

The table below contrasts the King George with the earlier Kauto Star novices’ chase over the same course and distance and illustrates that the open Grade One event was a reasonable test of stamina at the trip. Neither Cyrname (perhaps with complicating factors) nor Footpad remotely stayed it. Lostintranslation took part in body only and, even in that, not until the end.

By contrast, Clan Des Obeaux probably produced his best performance yet, building on his hitherto standout efforts when winning last season’s King George and the Denman Chase, helpfully staged at Ascot due to the abandonment of Newbury. As Nicholls reasoned after his defeat in the 2018 Betfair Chase, this horse really is at his best when racing right-handed.

He also needs to hit the front as late as possible, as Cobden executed perfectly at Kempton in 2018 (having stuffed up the Kauto Star dress rehearsal on Topofthegame) but was unable to do at Down Royal on debut this season when his mount just travelled too darn well into the lead three out and was claimed by the redoubtable Road To Respect.

In this year’s King George, the deputising Sam Twiston-Davies had the same first-world problem. You could see him trying desperately to wait from as far out as the home turn, full of horse underneath him. The difference here was that when Clan Des Obeaux straightforwardly passed a weakening Cyrname at the penultimate fence, no rival was capable of responding. While their stamina imploded, he romped home by 21 lengths.

“The last thing Paul said before we went out was to try not to hit the front too soon,” Twiston-Davies admitted afterwards. “But when I turned in travelling so well, I was thinking: ‘How can I try keep this as smooth as I can without doing anything silly?’ I decided that once we got over two out, we would just have to go. Luckily, he winged the last and did it really well."

Nicholls has since advised that Clan Des Obeaux heads straight to the Gold Cup. “We know he goes well fresh and we don't need to prove anything before Cheltenham,” he said.

But the horse does have something to prove at Cheltenham. Following his big-time breakthrough last season, I was prepared to keep an open mind about his Gold Cup prospects, given his best efforts at that track previously had not been that far shy of his contemporaneous achievements elsewhere. However, he was never quite able to get involved and finished fifth. The late-delivery tactics so critical to him are far harder to execute at that track.

So, although the emphatic King George winner is 8-1 for the Festival showpiece – the same price as former 7-2 favourite, Lostintranslation, who was pulled up behind him at Kempton – he makes little greater appeal. Although it’s perfectly logical to try again with a thriving horse who’s a year stronger, the Punchestown Gold Cup should instead be at the top of Clan Des Obeaux’s agenda.

Colin Tizzard was inclined to cite the ground – in itself and for exposing a physical frailty – to explain Lostintranslation’s lifeless display. Cobden had observed pre-race that deep going was more likely to be an issue for that horse than for Cyrname, based on his direct experience of riding him over hurdles in heavy ground at Haydock. “He didn’t go a yard,” he recalled.

Now-regular pilot Robbie Power certainly never looked happy, particularly on the final circuit. It was to his mount’s credit that he palpably tried to hang in there, even taking off a half-stride too soon four out to try to match Clan Des Obeaux, but he wasn’t able to conjure the necessary. Power pulled him up at the top of the straight.

“He just felt very flat,” he said in the aftermath. “The ground wasn't ideal for him, but I was beaten too soon so I don't think we can blame that. He was even struggling with his jumping. I could have pulled up with a circuit to go. If it was a normal race I probably would've done. Things felt a bit different today, so pulling him up was the right thing to do.”

Tizzard reported a breathing problem the Kempton stewards. “We think it may have been his wind,” he told the Racing Post. “You find it out on that type of ground, so it's something we'll definitely explore this week. He made a little noise; it was his palate. The palate was flapping, so we'll need to sort that next week.

“Of course, the Gold Cup is still the plan. We'll have to have a rethink, but these horses aren't machines, so we'll see. We'll look to have a prep run before we go to Cheltenham.”

To draw a line under this year’s King George, its 2016 then-novice hero and 2018 runner-up, Thistlecrack, missed the race due to a bruised foot. It will have been doubly frustrating timing for connections because they had made the decision to target Kempton over Ascot’s Grade One Hurdle the preceding weekend, only for the odds-on favourite Paisley Park to have dropped out of that event due concerns about the ground.

Over at Leopardstown two days later, Delta Work rekindled his own reputation and that of last season’s RSA Chase (for those who needed convincing of this) by storming home to win a steadily run edition of the Savills Chase. A race conducted in this manner can both flatter and detract from its participants; it can also disguise problems that might otherwise be exposed.

The winner jumped a lot more cleanly than has often been the case. This was partly his undoing when third to Topofthegame in the RSA Chase – albeit trainer Gordon Elliott argued, wrongly in my view, that the result would have been different had Davy Russell pressed on sooner – and also on his seasonal debut when a distant fourth at Down Royal behind Road To Respect and Clan Des Obeaux.

Here, Jack Kennedy rode him patiently on the wide outside – a precaution he won’t be able to afford at the Festival – and, after asking him to measure the last calmly, brought him with a galvanising run to claim the better-positioned Monalee inside the final half-furlong. His trainer, who saddled Don Cossack to win the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup, believes there is yet more to come – which there will need to be.

“We missed a bit of time after Down Royal and thought he'd come on for today,” Elliott said. “We were riding him to come home and run a good race because there is a good bit of improvement in him, so for him to do this is unbelievable. We thought he was a Gold Cup horse last season and obviously our bubble got burst at Down Royal, but we're not gone yet.”

If you take Elliott’s implied view that Delta Work is a strong stayer at the trip, then a steadily run race should have been to his disadvantage. Of course, the steadier pace might also have given him time to measure his fences and would certainly have neutralised the drawbacks of a wide trip.

For me, as many questions remain about this horse as existed beforehand. Monalee also finished second in this Grade One last year, then comfortably held seven-and-a-half lengths by the enterprisingly ridden Kemboy.

Here, he jumped well at a pace he mostly dictated and had every chance. It’s this scenario that brings the best out of him. Put this consistent horse under more pressure and he’s prone to the odd chance-ending blunder.

Having seen him finish fourth to Frodon in last year’s Ryanair, staying on after being under pressure from some way out, connections will surely be inclined to try the Gold Cup in March. It was a much-discussed choice prior to last season’s Festival but he now shapes as though the extended trip, over which he is as yet untried, would be worth a spin. Cue solid performance.

Road To Respect lacked the winner’s turn of foot and never quite got to Monalee but kept on determinedly from towards the rear. He’s been snapping at the heels of the very best for two seasons now and still looks to be operating at that level, making him an enduring Grade One threat when the cards fall right.

On his enforcedly belated return to action under amended ownership, Kemboy was fresh early and better positioned than many but characteristically adjusted out to his right, sometimes markedly so, and therefore lacked fluency at his obstacles. That propensity – rather than any doubt about his intrinsic ability – is what puts me off for the Gold Cup.

His stablemate Bellshill, no fan of Cheltenham, was also making his reappearance and, as more of a dour stayer, was bang in trouble entering the home turn. He finished seventh, beaten 24 lengths, and has been dropped 1lb by the Irish handicapper to 167. It will be interesting to see whether he gets a Grand National entry in 2020.

“I expect them both to step forward for the run – they’ll have to,” trainer Willie Mullins commented, who also pinpointed the Irish Gold Cup as their likely next target. “This time last year, Kemboy had a run under his belt, so he surely should improve.”

Twice Gold Cup-placed Anibale Fly was the first in trouble, early on the final circuit, but the fact he managed to stay within hailing distance until eased approaching the final fence (and more heavily so on landing) was testament to the slow pace. The Irish handicapper has boldly rewarded him with a 7lb drop to a mark of 158, his lowest mark for two years. The British handicapper is not obliged to reflect that rating, however, if you’re rubbing your hands for the Grand National.

Perhaps the most arresting performance came, inevitably, from Presenting Percy. Having shaped well on his seasonal debut in the John Durkan when handily positioned in another steadily run affair over an inadequate trip, in the Savills Chase he was too far back in the circumstances.

He also jumped with atypical caution and was ridden sympathetically late on when in contention with Road To Respect and Kemboy for third, finishing only fifth. No issue was mentioned by rider Russell to the stewards – who themselves ought to have shown some curiosity – and, clearly, we ain’t going to learn anything from trainer Pat Kelly. So, like everyone else, I can only speculate.

You can interpret this performance in one of two ways, to my mind. Either Presenting Percy wasn’t able to win from that position so, on ground quicker than ideal, his jockey was being conspicuously circumspect or else something wasn’t quite right, whether that might have been fitness or another issue. I lean towards the latter scenario. Whereas for many observers he is ‘the one to take out of the race’, I’m really not so sure.

Delta Work’s success has also resuscitated interest in Santini, who split him and the winner in the RSA Chase but made an underwhelming reappearance at Sandown in November. He’s since undergone what trainer Nicky Henderson has described as “a very minor wind op” and is back in training, with either Cheltenham’s Cotswold or Newbury’s Denman Chase as the comeback target. To repeat, I’d favour the latter. As a big, stuffy horse, he’ll certainly need a pre-Gold Cup prep.

Henderson also has 2018 Gold Cup runner-up and deteriorating head-case Might Bite to deploy, following his disastrous reappearance at Aintree, but – as vaguely threatened – it looks like we’ll be seeing him next over hurdles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day rather than in any chasing event. What happens then is anyone’s guess. These days, even Might Bite doesn’t know.

But the main beneficiary of all this Yuletide action, in the minds of bookmakers at least, has been the titleholder Al Boum Photo. He has been reinstated as outright or joint-favourite in many lists by dint of sitting on the sofa, watching Die Hard and eating mince pies. Mullins has recently reiterated that the Tramore Listed Chase he won by seven lengths on his reappearance last season will again be his starting point.

Gang aft agley, as my grandma frequently observed when the third leg of her Jenny Pitman-themed each-way trixie finished fourth. That’s what often happens to the best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men, including my seemingly cunning Chacun Pour Soi plan.

Once news broke that Altior would not only miss the King George but also his Plan B target the following day due to developing an abscess, surely it just left a tap-in at Leopardstown for my ante-post Queen Mum selection? Sadly, A Plus Tard was quicker to the ball.

Yet although my timing was flawed, my respect for Chacun Pour Soi has not run dry. If anything, to my mind the bet is actually now a more solid proposition at 5-1 – or even 6-1, if you see the world through Paddy Power Betfair eyes – than he was a fortnight ago at 4-1. If you haven’t already backed him, I’d advise you to make a move this week. If you have, consider going in again. As I have done.

Prior to last Friday, we’d only seen Chacun Pour Soi twice since he joined Willie Mullins’ yard and that kind of profile makes me nervous but Ruby Walsh had at least given a positive update about his wellbeing after schooling him at Punchestown earlier in the month. Still, there’s nothing like a race for revealing where a horse is truly at and the Grade One 2m1f at Leopardstown told us he wasn’t quite as fit as connections hoped he was.

He got a trailer-park-girl ride, Paul Townend going ’round the outside in a manner that suggested he thought he was on miles the best horse and was seeking to avoid any Min-like trouble. (Don’t mention 2017.) But, as it turned out, he wasn’t. A Plus Tard, who had dismantled the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at last term’s Cheltenham Festival, was primed via a Navan prep run to produce a career-best performance.

Rachael Blackmore had the sound-jumping winner tucked in behind the leaders and was able readily to cover Townend’s move from the third last, moving A Plus Tard upsides two out and then waiting to assert as it became obvious entering the home turn that her mount was going better than the 8-15 favourite. They definitively got on top from the back of the last.

Chacun Pour Soi had been keen over the first couple of obstacles and lacked the match-fitness of the winner, as became clear when he started to wobble under pressure approaching the last. It bodes well that he still jumped it cleanly and tried his best to knuckle down to what was clearly an unequal struggle on that day, in those conditions, in such a scenario.

I reckon he showed more than enough to suggest he’ll be a far greater force at the Dublin Racing Festival and at Cheltenham beyond that. There was something about the way he jumped into the lead three out and then moved on, getting all bar A Plus Tard in trouble, that suggested top-drawer ability for a bang two-mile assignment on a likely sounder surface.

Admittedly, this interpretation rests on the Mullins team having left Chacun Pour Soi undercooked for this reappearance. There was no indication of this in the Racing Post beforehand, the trainer asserting that “he’s been doing everything right at home; we think we have him in good form”. Since then, Mullins hasn’t adopted a revisionist argument.

“I was disappointed, although he was beaten by a very good horse,” he said. “It was our fella’s first run and also his first run in open company. It’s a big jump from novice company to open company, and he would have had a lot less experience than all the other horses. We’ve the rest of the season ahead and I hope he’ll be sharper. He jumped well but just maybe need the run, I hope.”

That is hardly a resounding endorsement of Chacun Pour Soi but it has consistently come to be the stable’s view that their seasonal debutantes have very much needed the run so far this term and their modus operandi has long been to place a greater focus on the latter half of the season.

Plus, the fact is the two horses shorter than him in the Champion Chase market are: (1) not-yet-certain runner in Altior, who struggled last year to quell rivals with form comparable to Chacun Pour Soi’s seasonal debut performance and (2) Defi Du Seuil, whom he beat unextended by four-and-a-quarter lengths the one time they met. This was a strong argument a fortnight ago and is only more so at 1 to 2 points longer.

Meanwhile, although de Bromhead acknowledged this unexpected success meant A Plus Tard would merit dually entering at the Festival, it has not quite convinced him to change his game plan. The Ryanair remains the target in his mind, albeit the outcome of February’s Dublin Chase (when his horse will re-oppose Chacun Pour Soi) will be conclusive. Bookmakers have shortened A Plus Tard from 33-1 to – at best – 10-1 for the Champion Chase, just in case.

“I was happy with his first run back this season. We knew he'd come on plenty for it, but the favourite was so impressive last year, it looked like he'd be difficult to beat over this trip,” de Bromhead said.

“I wasn't convinced this was our trip, but the softened ground helped, and he jumped great. We'll probably enter him now in the Champion Chase, but in my head, he was always going for the Ryanair. I think ground would come into play as regards plans [for Cheltenham]."

For the third year in succession, the winner’s stable companion Ordinary World got a bronze medal in this Grade One, ridden advantageously chilly at a track for which he reserves his best form. The rigours of Cheltenham have consistently proved beyond him, however.

Back in fourth – a position he might well have taken regardless of whether Hardline had stood up at the last – Simply Ned delivered a rare poor effort. The British-trained raider had previously taken the last two renewals, once courtesy of the stewards. (You’ve only gone and mentioned 2017!) Perhaps it suggests age might finally be starting to wither this admirable veteran.

Over at Kempton that same day, the race intended to provide Altior safe passage back to the two-mile division – where many people believe he still belongs – took place in his absence. Its outcome is likely to have less impact on Cheltenham, albeit Aintree might be a different story.

Under the novelty of front-running tactics – frequently the making of a strong-travelling horse who finds little – Bun Doran produced the performance of his career to down both last season’s Arkle winner and the Champion Chase third, Duc De Genievres and Sceau Royal. Back in fourth, Capeland’s pretensions to this class were ruthlessly exposed despite being sent off favourite in a total guess-up of a betting market.

Admittedly, Bun Doran was in receipt of weight from both principals – 3lb and 6lb respectively – and his jockey Jonathan Burke controlled the race from the front, sealing it with a well-timed injection of pace from after the third last.

This is palpable in the below number-crunching, which illustrates that the Desert Orchid was 5.4 seconds slower than the earlier Wayward Lad (for novices over the same course and distance) to the fourth fence, 5.7 seconds slower to three out and 4.2 seconds slower at the finish. You could argue that quicker closing fraction is still disconcertingly slow for horses with Grade One pretensions, given how much energy they’d earlier conserved.

Bun Doran’s seasonal-debut second at Newbury last month had already suggested he’d improved another notch and he jumped boldly here, albeit persistently went out to his left and sometimes markedly so.

The sum of all of these details, combined with what his main rivals were capable of producing, tempers enthusiasm for his transferral of this form anywhere other than perhaps the Game Spirit back at Newbury in February.

Yet such realism is rarely considered when Festivals loom on the horizon. Riding Sceau Royal for the first time in the absence of injured Daryl Jacob, Tom Bellamy might well have been under strict instructions to hold onto what he’d got for as long as possible on ground known not to suit his mount. But consciously delaying their challenge after three out and then relying on winging the last – which they didn’t – cost them second at the very least.

Duc De Genievres wore a first-time tongue-tie in an attempt to revive him even to the level of his novice-chasing form last season and he certainly ran much better than on either of his abject previous starts this term. However, it takes a strong pace to get him rolling – as the 2019 Arkle testified (albeit it’s surely just as relevant to note that three key players took early baths in that event) – and he certainly did not get a sniff of anything like that at Kempton.

Perhaps he’ll get it in the Champion Chase itself but, at this stage in the game, that’s not assured. None of this division’s headlong characters is as yet guaranteed to be deemed good enough to merit lining up. Unless, of course, A Plus Tard were to win the Dublin Chase, too, in which case there would be a powerful motivation for de Bromhead to allow the impetuous Ornua to line up.

Should Altior’s connections revert to two miles in pursuit of equalling Badsworth Boy’s trio of successes in this Festival event, any absence of pace would be an issue for their horse, too – as it was for much of Cheltenham’s straight in last term’s renewal. Stubbornly, I’m going to discuss this point in the Ryanair section. After all, via his selection of fallback target, trainer Nicky Henderson has given me just cause.

Incidentally, the sum of these Christmas events will surely only strengthen JP McManus’s resolve to tackle the Champion Chase with Defi De Seuil – if, indeed, he required convincing.

Quite rightly, A Plus Tard pretty much halved in price for the Ryanair after proving the superior of Chacun Pour Soi in terms of stamina and fitness over 2m1f at Leopardstown. Last term’s authoritative Close Brothers victor is now best-priced at 8-1 for the 2020 Cheltenham Festival’s intermediate-trip Grade One event.

A likely non-runner, Defi De Seuil, remains ante-post favourite with probable contender Min as the only horse consistently to feature in most books at a shorter price. His stable companions, the again-crocked Douvan and last year’s eighth Footpad, range from 7-1 to 10-1 – as does the horse who finished one place ahead of the latter in the King George, Cyrname. This turbulence is pure distilled Ryanair.

As discussed in the Gold Cup section, both Cyrname and Footpad were unequivocal non-stayers over three miles in a solidly conducted King George. The former also retains a substantial doubt about his ability to reproduce his best form when racing left-handed.

Trainer Paul Nicholls reported Cyrname “a bit stiff” the morning after the King George and has provided ample opportunity for recovery by unsurprisingly earmarking as his next assignment the Grade One Ascot Chase on 15 February – a race which this horse utterly dismembered by 17 lengths last term.

There have been mixed messages about whether he might then move on to Cheltenham, but his trainer’s character tends to the Wildean, resisting everything except temptation. That said, it would make for a relatively quick turnaround for the Festival by many modern standards (though probably not for Nicholls). Whatever, Punchestown would be the most logical ultimate target.

Footpad hasn’t yet self-sabotaged as he did last season, with overreaches and some dodgy jumping. You couldn’t say failing to stay in the King George, having apparently travelled pretty well until three furlongs out, was exactly a regression on his successful Thurles debut even if his performance figures will say as much. Yet neither was it entirely convincing for a Ryanair. His best form remains at two miles and his recent overall profile is shaky.

If you’re an Aso fan, I wouldn’t write him off for the Ryanair on the basis of his 29-length fourth in the King George because he is clearly better when going left-handed. He could well be over-priced next time he lines up that way around and he’s finished placed in this race for the past two seasons, including a proper pop at titleholder Frodon last time.

A Plus Tard is another who’s best on left-handed tracks even though, as trainer Henry de Bromhead acknowledges, he doesn’t do anything obvious to the eye to detract from his ability to race right-handed. It’s purely that his form testifies to that preference.

Ruby Walsh made the point at the Road To Cheltenham’s Leopardstown roadshow on Sunday that, as it is staged on the New Course, the Ryanair will be a greater test of stamina than the Old Course event that A Plus Tard won at the 2019 Festival. Even though the horse has just won a Grade One over 2m1f, if anything I think that extra accent on stamina will be an advantage.

Winding back to before Christmas, we mustn’t overlook the claims of Riders Onthe Storm in this division. You’ll recall he was erroneously withdrawn from the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup when the name of a different horse trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies wished to withdraw was, quite literally, taken by the wind when he spoke it into his mobile on the gallops, causing his secretary to mishear and make the fateful mis-step.

Yet even before that intended target turned out to be a slow-motion test on heavy ground, Twiston-Davies was starting to think serendipity had been at play and his Ascot graduation chase fallback option was actually the better plan. After an assertively surefooted display of jumping to beat On The Blind Side by seven lengths conceding 7lb, I suspect it probably was.

His trainer was jubilant, not just at this success and what it bodes for the future but also about the comparative song for which they bought him – just £50,000 at the Goffs Horses-In-Training sales in May. Declaring him “our most exciting horse”, he cited the Ryanair as the plan, via the Grade One Ascot Chase – thus setting up an exciting clash with Cyrname.

“He settled well and jumped his way to the front,” Twiston-Davies said. “He doesn't quite settle enough to go further yet, but he will do. It's really exciting and he wasn't stopping at all at the line. His jumping was superb.”

I recall only too sharply Riders Onthe Storm’s failure to settle prior to falling in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase last season, as he’d been the subject of close scrutiny from this column prior to being my selection for that race.

He went on to be pulled up as the beaten favourite at Fairyhouse, where he made mistakes, but it is also worth noting that jockey JJ Slevin felt the ground was too fast for him. His jumping and comportment have clearly improved for his new yard. On the ability front, this fast-progressive second-season chaser is bang in the Ryanair picture.

Finally, we must address the latest episode in the rollercoaster saga that is Altior’s season to date. On the Saturday before Christmas, Nicky Henderson confirmed via his Unibet blog that the fallback two-mile option of Kempton’s Desert Orchid Chase on 27 December had come firmly into play as a replacement for the King George.

“Nico [de Boinville, Altior’s regular rider] is much happier with him and his schooling was electric,” he said then. Unfortunately, just five days later on the eve of Plan B, the trainer discovered an abscess on the horse’s withers.

“Which is extremely frustrating,” he expanded. “He was ready to go but it’s nothing major and shouldn’t hinder his training regime too much. So, we will probably now go to plan Z and run in the 32Red Silviniaco Conti Chase over 2m4f on 11 January back at Kempton.”

Henderson won that race with recent Peterborough Chase victor Top Notch last season but it’s since been upgraded from Listed to Grade Two class and therefore passes muster as a dignified target for a nine-times Grade One-winning chaser. Nonetheless, the selection of this race as the contingency for the contingency is intriguing.

His other primary options were the Grade One Clarence House, staged at Ascot over 2m1f on 18 January, or the Grade Two Game Spirit, held over two miles at Newbury on 8 February. The latter might be deemed uncomfortably close to the Cheltenham Festival and the former might be deemed uncomfortably prone to attracting a top-class rival, such as Un De Sceaux.

The newly rechristened and promoted Silviniaco Conti is neither of those things – particularly if you take the precaution of publicly earmarking it at long range as Altior’s target and thereby potentially warning others off (albeit I wouldn’t dismiss the idea that Willie Mullins might find a plausible rival down the back of the sofa and cause some discombobulation).

This race also has the advantage of being staged at Kempton, where better ground is a greater possibility than at most venues at this time of year (imagine the impact on your major Festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree if you wilfully remove this prepping facility, Jockey Club Racecourses people, o self-appointed guardians of our sport in Britain).

Furthermore, you may have noticed that the Silviniaco Conti is staged over the intermediate trip of 2m4f. Henderson is clearly keeping his distance options open. Not as far as the Gold Cup – that would be rash after this season’s abortive campaign – but certainly the Ryanair and perhaps yet farther later in the season.

These are distinct tells. Henderson does not want to get Altior into a hard race next time out yet can no longer be reassured that he’ll scare others off. He also palpably meant it when he twice said at the end of last season that two miles had become too sharp a trip for his unbeaten-in-nineteen-on-the-bounce star. He clearly hasn’t forgotten that – and neither should we. The next move hangs on Nico’s post-race words at Kempton.

Advised on 20/11/19: Altior at 14/1 with William Hill for the Ryanair

Advised on 17/12/19: Chacun Pour Soi at 4/1 with various firms for the Champion Chase

Advised on 17/12/19: Mister Fisher at 16/1 e/w with Bet365, William Hill or BetFred for the JLT

Advised on 28/11/19: Thyme Hill at 14/1 with various firms for the Albert Bartlett

Advised on 12/12/19: Carefully Selected at 20/1 with Skybet or BetVictor for the NH Chase