Leopardstown tips: Ballycorus Stakes and Thursday pointers

The Ballycorus Stakes over seven furlongs headlines the second evening card of the summer at Leopardstown on Thursday and eight are set to head to post on good ground – if not a little quicker - given a going report of Good to Yielding on Wednesday morning and a dry and sunny forecast through until racing.

We look at some key questions and recent trends to try and find the winner – plus another to note elsewhere on the card.

Given the Ballycorus Stakes is run over something of a specialist trip, the distance looks even more of a key factor than usual here and, while most of this field have won over seven furlongs, you would be keener on some of these with this test in mind than others.

The likes of Mutasarref and Agartha - both towards the head of the market - have posted several wins over the distance in comparison to contenders such as Coachella and Ocean Jewel, who have proven best at sprint trips. Outsider Spring Feeling has contested several distances in recent starts and connections are seemingly feeling their way for an optimal distance.

Horses that ran over a mile on their latest start coming into this have underperformed in the past 25 years (16% of the winners from 36% of the total runners), while those with a previous course and distance win have a solid record - 36 have tried at Leopardstown since 1997 with seven winners and eight runners-up (42%). The three runners with such a profile this time are Agartha, Mutasarref and Real Appeal.

Ocean Jewel is the early favourite and, on paper, that looks unsurprising given the three-year-old filly receives 13lb from all bar one of her rivals.

However, there is not a compelling reason to stick with this age bracket on historical trends (8 from 57 since 1997 and 31% of the winners from 32% of the total runners) and, perhaps tellingly, Ocean Jewel is the sole runner here not to have previously run over seven furlongs. In the last 25 years, 13 runners have rocked up here trying this trip for the first time and just one has placed (Don’t Touch for Richard Fahey in 2017).

Ocean Jewel travelled notably strongly over six furlongs - and behind what looked a steady-enough early gallop - at Naas last time.

The trainer has had more than a quiet season by his lofty standards so far this year.

The ascent of the Group One- and Classic-winning trainer has been one of the stories of Irish Flat racing in recent years, but the yard has sent out eight winners from 101 runners this term - a strike-rate of just 8%. Over the past five years you’d expect the stable to be operating at around 20% by this stage of the turf season, while the current place strike-rate of 27% is well below the 40% that has been customary at this point in recent years.

Regardless, Lyons’ record in the Ballycorus is pretty compelling. The trainer has saddled 17 runners in the race for four winners (+£6.13, 1.38 A/E) as well as four runners-up, while he sent out the 1-2 last year.

The ground could well be on the lively side for Power Under Me, but stable first-string Mutasarref was very progressive last year and didn’t shape too badly at all on his return despite finishing fifth. The five-year-old was very keen off what looked a modest pace and typically travelled really strongly into contention before being eased in final furlong.

He's entitled to improve now while the Lyons stable seems in a better place since that reappearance run. From three winners and 13 more placed from 72 runners (21%) in April and May, the trainer is five from 29 so far this month with six more placed (38%), much more like his customary strike-rate.

Agartha has a fine record at seven furlongs, with three wins and four seconds from her seven attempts at the distance and, while she was a high-class juvenile, she still retains her enthusiasm aged four judging by how she stuck to her task at the Curragh last time and this return to better ground should suit. Despite a fairly wide draw, she looks the pace angle here and could get the run of things for a long way for a trainer (Joseph O'Brien) and jockey (Dylan Browne McMonagle) with good course records.

Carrytheone is also of real interest, shaping really nicely in the Irish Lincoln on his return from his car park draw in stall 30 before then suffering interference at the start in the Gladness next time, remarkably finishing fourth when looking like he could possibly win at the furlong marker.

Down in trip to six furlongs last time, he travelled strongly and again finished to decent effect, certainly better than those on his far-side group. He could have a big say, and especially if he can keep his keen-going tendencies in check early on off what may be a steady-enough gallop.

Agartha is very hard to knock over track, trip and in Group Three company and it will be a surprise if she doesn’t hit the frame.

However, MUTASARREF might have the most improvement in him ahead of this assignment given the early-season form of his yard and he travelled in a manner last time which suggested that he can at least maintain his place at this higher level after a very progressive campaign last season.

Carrytheone is a keen goer and that’s a concern, but he’s a smart horse who has run well on every start this season and I’ve also backed Johnny Murtagh’s runner.

There are plenty of big-field handicaps to go featuring several course regulars in competitive fare at a lower level.

One with aspirations to rank better in time is handicap debutant Chiketto in the 47-75 handicap for three-year-olds, with trainer and ownership combination Joseph O’Brien and Simon Munir and Isaac Souede bidding for more recent success.

Chiketto has some eye-catching maiden form, notably when losing second late on behind Paddington at the Curragh last October, while he finished third behind two likeable horses who had started the season strongly (with both now higher in the ratings) at Cork in early April.

O’Brien is one to note with his handicappers at Leopardstown (16%, +£26.66, 1.11 A/E) and his handicap debutants here have performed better still (20%, +£3.08, 1.41 A/E). Chiketto wears a first-time hood and, from a small sample, O’Brien is two from nine with such runners in turf handicaps (2.3 A/E) with a further three placed.