Juvenile Watch: Tuesday and Wednesday Royal Ascot focus

is a huge week for anyone connected to a runner. In the juvenile division, the importance perhaps reaches a bit further with bloodstock agents who battled for yearlings and breeze-up lots, and stud farms who may have first season sires with representatives across the five individual races for the two-year olds. It’s not an exaggeration to say that a winner this week can be career defining.

Juvenile Watch will be available in two parts this week, today looking at the Tuesday and Wednesday cards and then, later in the week, covering the action for the remainder of the meeting.

Good luck.

Where to start? This looks a wide-open renewal, with plenty of untapped potential on display. As a result I’m going to look away from the top of the market, which currently sees Postmodern and Gstaad sharing favouritism. 

Both have obvious credentials and represent connections that command respect in these races. However, the form of Postmodern’s debut win at Yarmouth is yet to be boosted with Frontline Fury, who finished third, being beaten around the same distance on his next start.

Equally, Gstaad might just be priced up on account of connections rather than his on course achievements, he was less fancied than his stablemate on his debut at Navan and while he won nicely, I wasn’t blown away by his performance which I felt came through stamina on a stiff track rather than speed, he is though a half-brother to top-class sprinter Vandeek.

At a double figure price I like the chances of the Paul and Oliver Cole-trained American Gulf. He was highlighted in this column last week after he ran out a stylish winner of his debut over six furlongs at Windsor the previous Monday.

I was taken by a number of factors; he travelled with notable ease through the race while looking easy to settle and equally showed a smart burst of pace to put the race to bed in a matter of strides, before running strongly through the line.

A two-week turnaround is quick enough and is a minor concern, but on historical data, he looks well drawn in stall eight. The Cole yard have started well with their juveniles and went close with Royal Scotsman, for the same owners, in this race three years ago.

For those wanting to take a swing at one at a bigger price (Rashabar was sent off 80/1 when winning last year) I’d nudge you in the direction of the Tom Dascombe-trained Kolkata Knight.

He looked potentially smart when winning over this trip on his debut at Hamilton in mid-May, pulling five lengths clear of the race experienced Mister Moet, that rival has given the form a boost when winning cosily on his next start.

Tom Dascombe knows what it takes to win with juveniles at Royal Ascot having landed the 2012 Queen Mary with Ceiling Kitty, so don’t dismiss his challenger from stall three.

Already advised – Andab. He looked impressive on debut over six furlongs at the Curragh and didn’t disappoint when third behind Albert Einstein (was short-priced favourite for this before meeting with a setback).

Joseph O’Brien has since reported that he missed some work before that engagement so it’s entirely possible he may still find further improvement. The draw of stall 20 is not ideal with only Calyx in stall 22 defying such a high draw in the last ten years.

It’s hard to overlook the obvious credentials of Zelaina who lines up here representing last years winning connections Karl Burke and Wathnan Racing.

That’s not where the similarities end as Zelaina made her winning debut in the same Nottingham maiden that last year’s heroine Leovanni used as a springboard to success. 

Zelaiana was thoroughly dominant at Nottingham, breaking smartly and making the entire running as she lengthened clear under minimal urgings from Wathnan’s retained rider James Doyle.

Karl Burke was adamant that she’d improve for the run, stating she’s missed some key work in the build up to Nottingham and, if that’s the case, she should prove hard to beat providing she copes with the preliminaries and settles in this better class of race – her trainer reported she’s a hot individual at home.

Again, if short-priced juveniles at Royal Ascot aren’t your thing then you may want to consider Cardiff By The Sea. This daughter of first season sire St Mark’s Basilica ran with tremendous credit when only finding Charles Darwin (favourite for Thursday’s Norfolk Stakes) too good on her debut at Naas.

She was beaten three and a quarter lengths, but she was in turn that same distance ahead of the third-placed Fresh Fade, who has since run well when second on her next start.

Oisin Murphy is a strong booking for Fozzy Stack’s filly and I feel at current odds of 25-1, the market has overlooked her, simply because she doesn’t have a ‘1’ in her form figures. That’s an error as I’m confident she achieved more in defeat than a good few have in victory.

The final edition of this race over this trip of five furlongs. 

I was tremendously impressed by the dominant display of Rogue Supremacy at Wetherby on his debut. The value of the form is open to interpretation, as they set only moderate fractions in the early furlongs, however he looked to me to have bags of natural speed and required only minimal assistance from jockey Danny Tudhope to draw clear to a wide margin success.

That win came over an official distance of five and a half furlongs, so this track and trip looks sure to suit. A two-week turnaround is quick enough, but I was really taken by him at Wetherby and am keen to side with the David O’Meara-trained colt here.    

I’ll also back Logi Bear at a double-figure price. He improved on his third start when making virtually all of the running to win over six furlongs at Newmarket, but in truth, he looked much sharper on that occasion and, when reviewing his latest run at Epsom, it’s hard not to conclude that the six-furlong trip stretches his stamina.

He was only fourth on that occasion, but he showed great tenacity to battle all the way to the line on a track that he didn’t appear to enjoy. It’s a quick turnaround with just 12 days between runs, but he holds plenty of experience over most of his rivals and looks capable of outrunning his odds.

Update: Better And Better was given as one to follow by Johnny Hassett in last week's column and he duly won at Hamilton, and will now race in the colours of Dr Mustafa Bousaif for his Al Leith Racing Club.

They own a number of horses in both Libya and France, but this is the first of what they hope will be many runners at the top end of British racing.