I live about 150 miles away from my Racing TV colleague, Harry Allwood, but could almost hear his groan after informing him via text that his ante-post fancy for the John Smith’s Cup,
Thunder Run, had drawn stall 17 in Saturday’s big handicap.
Harry put
Thunder Run up at 14-1 a while back and at least he’s still got a runner. Those who have supported Arabian Force, The King’s Falcon and Defiance – all prominent in the ante-post betting – already know their fate.
A low draw is usually regarded as an advantage in the John Smith’s Cup, and that is borne out by events of recent years, plus the RaceiQ data.
In the past decade, those drawn 1, 2 or 3 have won on five occasions, with another nine making the frame. Taking that a step further, those drawn ten or lower have triumphed eight times of ten, with another 21 of their number finishing in the first four.
By contrast, those drawn 11 or higher have chalked up only two wins (the last being back in 2017 from stall 11), with only another nine in the first four.
Let’s strip it right back. Since 2015, 29 runners drawn ten or lower have either won or been placed, while only 11 runners drawn 11 or higher have either won or been placed.
RaceiQ have crunched all their numbers and reckon the excess win percentages of horses drawn in single figures is vast, being as high as 66.46% for stall 1. Stall 19? That’s minus 60.82%.
But statistics can be like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
Certain Lad was runner-up from stall 18 in 2020, when a 66-1 chance, while Setting Sail had hit the front a furlong out the year before, from stall 23, only to be overhauled in the closing stages.
What makes this year’s edition puzzling is that most of the leading ante-post fancies, apart from
Archivist, the favourite, are ten or higher. And there’s not a lot of pace signed on among those drawn low, so those drawn high may have the scope to quickly get over and adopt a handy position.
Maybe this is the year when the draw stats get turned on their head. Maybe it isn’t. Here are my five against the field, in order of where they are drawn.
Flashback: enjoy editions of the John Smith's Cup in the 1990s
HAVE SECRET
Stall: 5. Usual run style: Prominent but can be slow away. Odds: 25-1.
A career-high mark and below-par run at Epsom last time are obvious negatives, but that latest effort can be excused as he fluffed the start, and he had previously been in good heart.
The five-year-old has run several solid races at
York in the past, often when unfavourably drawn, including when a length third to Thunder Run here in May.
They have more or less swapped starting positions this time, which could be crucial, plus he gets a small pull in the weights. Billy Garrity will be alive to the fact that he can be a little sleepy at the start.
ARCHIVIST
Stall: 6. Usual run style: Prominent. Odds: 7-2.
The chestnut son of Dubawi, out a Galileo mare, went off at 4-6 for his handicap debut here over a mile last month and duly got the job done with a bit to spare. He runs under a 5lb penalty and is 2lb well-in, and that’s without factoring in that he has proven himself at the track and is open to more improvement, especially moving up in trip.
There really is nothing not to like, although this is a much better race than the one he contested last time and there’s not much margin for error in his price. The last clear favourite to win this race was 20 years ago.
SEE THAT STORM
Stall: 10. Usual run style: Front-runner/prominent. Odds: 6-1.
It’s not hard to see this progressive four-year-old quickly being up near the pace and making a bold bid to stay there.
Over the past year, he has reeled off four successive wins, all over this trip, before narrow defeats in the Zetland Gold Cup and over course and distance. His conqueror last time, Burrito, fits into the “could be anything” category.
See That Storm runs off the same mark and will be obliged to race off a 2lb higher rating in the future. He’s most likeable and, having run nine times, yet to finish outside the first three. Will again be hard to keep out of the frame.
ROMIEU
Stall: 11. Usual run style: Prominent. Odds: 16-1.
Between 2006 and 2011, the John Smith’s Cup winner was ridden by an apprentice every time. In tight-knit, top-end handicaps, a few pounds here and there can be the difference between glory and despair.
They have not enjoyed such good fortune since, although Freddie Larson was claiming 3lb when guiding Pride Of America to victory two years ago.
Elizabeth Gayle has many admirers and the 5lb she takes off the back of
Romieu – the pair link up for the first time - makes him interesting.
A cheap buy out of the yard of Andre Fabre, the lightly raced Romieu ran well over a mile at the Dante meeting, and he was quickly back to form at Newcastle last time.
NAQEEB
Stall: 13. Usual run style: A mixture. Odds: 11-1.
This strong traveller is invariably dropped in, so I doubt his connections are too perturbed by his widish draw. In fact, it’s probably done him a favour as dropping anchor from a low draw can be curtains.
You may have forgotten he’s a half-brother to the top-class pair of Baaeed and Hukum, probably because William Haggas ended up running him over 2m last season in an attempt to get him back in the winner’s enclosure.
Sold for 170,000gns and switched to Julie Camacho, Naqeeb has been back over 12 furlongs this term, running as well as he has ever done when third in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot time.
Now, he’s dropping back even further, having not run over 10 furlongs for over two years. It’s an interesting move given how he takes a grip when running over further.
Selection: See That Storm each-way. It’s hard to see him finishing out of the frame, at the very least.
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