Ifs and buts make King George VI Chase a classic Christmas puzzle

It seemed such an easy question. Last week, via our social media channels, we asked what horse you would back if you had a £20 free bet to use on the 32Red King George VI Chase.

Within a short time we had received 269 suggestions but were left even more confused as where to put our cash.

Just about every horse in the highlight of the festive programme had his or her supporters.

That’s the beauty of this year’s King George. It has all the ingredients of being a classic but identifying the winner is a bit like solving one of those 1,000-piece Baked Bean jigsaw puzzles that a mischievous aunt gets you for Christmas.

Good luck sifting through all the ifs and buts.

Kempton form: 6. General odds: 13-2

If he can reproduce the form he showed when winning his second Betfair Chase on good ground at Haydock last month then he is going to take some stopping. After all, he beat Native River, Thistlecrack, Clan Des Obeaux and Might Bite fair and square that day. Plus, aged seven, who is to say he has reached his ceiling?

But the grey seems to reserve his best efforts for Haydock (unbeaten in four starts there) and he trailed home a well-beaten sixth in the King George last year. Also, he likes to bowl along at the head of affairs and will have competition for the lead.

Kempton form: 2. Odds: 14-1

If Paul Nicholls thinks he is good enough to take his chance, then he has to warrant respect because the serial champion does not overface his horses and is seeking a tenth King George VI Chase triumph. Only a six-year-old, he has time on his side.

But his form falls short. He finished a well-held third behind Might Bite at Aintree in April and never looked like winning when fourth in the Betfair Chase. He finished behind Bristol De Mai, Native River and Thistlecrack that day.

Kempton form: 1. Odds: 25-1

If the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner can build on his encouraging comeback at Cheltenham last month (third in a handicap off a mark of 160 after almost a year off) then he should make his presence felt. It is easy to forget that he was the runaway winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at this meeting four years ago en route to his most famous hour at Prestbury Park.

But he’s been plagued by setbacks and injury problems throughout his career. His connections don’t train him day by day, as so much minute by minute, plus he is rising 12 and vulnerable to younger rivals.

Kempton form: 122. Odds: 33-1

If he can reproduce the form he showed in last year’s running, when a length runner-up to Might Bite, then he is entitled to be on the premises. He also won at this meeting two years ago (a handicap off a mark of 143) and is clearly well served by the combination of the track and decent ground.

But increasingly it looks like that effort 12 months ago, when sent off at 50-1, was a bit of a fluke. His form beforehand did not suggest such a run was on the cards and his subsequent efforts, including when put in his place by Definitly Red at Aintree last time when in receipt of 6lb, also raises doubts. This is also a stronger renewal.

Kempton form: 1F1. Odds: 5-2

If he can recapture his swagger then he will have every chance of retaining his crown. Would have been a stunning winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at this meeting two years ago had he not fallen at the final fence and returned 12 months later to land this prize. Outstayed by Native River when runner-up in the Gold Cup and then poetry in motion when thumping Bristol De Mai at Aintree. His connections believe he was possibly short of his peak and not at home over the fences when trailing home last of five in the Betfair Chase on his return.

But that Haydock run last time was a stinker. It is hard to believe fitness was to blame – his connections had set their sights on landing the £1 million Chase Triple Crown – and the obstacles were the same for all the runners. Did he throw in the towel? He’s shown himself to be a thinker in the past (almost threw away the RSA Chase in 2017) and it’s a possible explanation for the way he wilted given his previous level of form.

Kempton form: 3. Odds: 7-1.

If the ground is soft and the race turns into a slog then this year’s Gold Cup winner will be in his element. It is not that he is a sluggard, just that he is a class act who always give his last drop of effort and stays all day. His CV also includes victories in the Hennessy, Welsh Grand National and two Denman Chase triumphs.

But the suspicion is that the combination of this sharp, right-handed track plus a bare 3m will not be ideal. He was tapped for toe when third in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase in 2015 and, while he is now clearly a better horse, it may be a similar story unless the going deteriorates.

Kempton form: 11. Odds: 5-1.

If he can prove as effective over three miles then the slick-jumping grey must have prospects of giving Paul Nichools a tenth win in this race. Landed two Grade One prizes last term – the Tingle Creek and Melling Chase – and in between won at this meeting. Has raised his game again since being equipped with a hood and tongue tie, giving 6lb and a beating to Charbel (good winner since) on his return at Ascot. Effective on all ground.

But his ability to stay the trip is an unknown and there will be no hiding places with several in the field being forceful front-runners. What we do know is that he is going to be as good, if not better, at the trip to prevail because four of his rivals are officially rated superior.

Kempton form: 11143. Odds: 40-1.

If his connections have him in the same form as for the past three years at this meeting then he has each-way shout at chunky odds. He won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase in 2015 (had Native River in third) and was fourth in the King George a year later before finishing third 12 months ago (on both occasions beaten about three lengths). Should be spot on after an encouraging third on his return at Huntingdon over an inadequate trip, having had a wind operation.

But the fact he has not been able to hit the jackpot in the past two renewals does not augur well because there is more depth to this renewal. Likely to be patiently ridden and his best chances of making the frame would be if the front-runners set off too fast.

Kempton form: 14. Odds: 13-2.

If he is the kind of form of two years ago, when he lifted this prize in great style as a novice, then he has to be taken seriously. More positives, than negatives, when third behind Bristol De Mai and Native River after 11 months off on his comeback in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and he is entitled to be sharper. Seem happy on any going.

But he has been held back by injury problems since winning this in 2016. Has not won since and had only four races, including when fourth when defending his crown 12 months ago. Will he progress or regress for that Haydock run? His jumping was not without blemish there.

Kempton form: 1. Odds: 9-2.

If the strong-travelling seven-year-old can pick up from where he left off last season, over the longest trip he has tackled, then he may well make it seven wins from as many starts over fences. He would not have much to say in the whip debate, barely being struck en route to a sequence of impressive wins at up to 2m5f. Proved he could mix it at the highest level when winning the Grade One Ascot Chase in February and shapes as if this easy 3m will be within his compass. A recent racecourse workout at Hexham will have helped tune him up.

But his ten-month absence is a niggle, especially given he will be stepping up to three miles for the first time. By contrast, all his rivals are racefit and on ratings he’s rated inferior to Native River and Might Bite, plus only has a little in hand of Bristol De Mai and Politologue.

ANDY’S VERDICT:

A fabulous race in prospect but there are too many ifs and buts to make it a contest to get too financially involved in.

Coneygree, Bristol De Mai and Native River are all at their best when forcing the pace, while Might Bite and Thistlecrack also usually race prominently.

It could be set up for something ridden with a bit more patience and WAITING PATIENTLY fits the bill.

His lack of a recent run is a niggle but he has yet to be fully extended in six starts over fences and the manner of his victories at Kempton and Ascot at the start of the year created a deep impression. He shapes as if 3m will not be a problem.

Tea For Two, a course specialist, will also sit off the gallop and may sneak into the frame at a big price if the front-runners conspire to compromise the chance of each other.

1 Waiting Patiently; 2 Bristol De Mai; 3 Tea For Two.