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How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Don't snooze, back Sleepy in the Cesarewitch

By Harry Allwood@harry_allwood
Sat 10 Oct 2020

Harry Allwood has three selections for Saturday's racing action at Newmarket, including a fancy in the Dewhurst and Cesarewitch, and suggests a couple of ways to beat the bookmakers.

Jump racing fans will be beginning to get excited now the jumps season starts to notch up a gear, and there are some potential stars of the season in action at Chepstow on Saturday, including Fiddlerontheroof who the Colin Tizzard team have high hopes for over fences.

However, there is some high-quality action on the Flat at Newmarket, with the feature being the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (2.55pm), and 14 exciting colts were declared to line-up for the Group One contest.

Chindit has been all the rage this week following positive comments from connections about a piece of work he did during his prep for the race, after which Richard Hannon said was “probably one of the best we've seen here for many years”.

Watch: Richard Hannon discusses his two contenders in this year's Dewhurst

You obviously have to sit up and take note of comments like that given the quality of horses Hannon has trained in the past, and his Wootton Bassett colt has done nothing but impress this season winning his first three starts.

Irish raider Thunder Moon is challenging for favouritism at the time of writing and was ultra-impressive when successful in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes last time out, despite meeting trouble in running.

It was a horse that finished behind Joseph O’Brien’s charge on that occasion that I am going to side with here though in the shape of Wembley.

Watch: Angus McNae analyses Wembley’s run in National Stakes in The Verdict

The son of Galileo showed promise without setting the world alight in his first four starts, but his performance in the Irish showpiece was a marked step up and he also suffered traffic problems before finishing strongly.

It was noticeable how well he travelled and with a clearer run, he would have finished closer to the winner.

I quite like the fact he has five runs under his belt as he is likely to be more street-wise compared to most of the leading contenders.

2.55 Newmarket: Wembley each-way at 10-1 with Paddy Power (paying four places)

Aidan O’Brien is seeking his seventh win in the Dewhurst and the master of Ballydoyle is also represented by St Mark’s Basilica, but Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Wembley who is worth chancing each-way at 10-1 with Paddy Power who are paying four places.

The Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the most competitive races of the season and I originally narrowed my shortlist down to three, which was quickly down to two when Lightly Squeeze, who was first reserve, was balloted out on Friday.

However, I have decided to pin my hopes to Not So Sleepy who finished a creditable fourth in the 2m2f contest 12 months ago off a rating of 94.

Watch a full replay of last year's Cesarewitch

It appeared as though he didn’t quite stay on that occasion – he has never won over further than two miles - given the way he faded in the last couple of furlongs and was in the lead until the two-furlong pole.

He was far too keen throughout the race though and was never going to get home in the soft ground, especially as he hit the front five furlongs out, and did well to finish as close as he did under the circumstances.

Following that run, he was successful in two competitive handicaps over hurdles at Ascot, including in the Betfair Exchange Trophy when he made all to score in impressive style, and it is best to forgive his final two starts of the season.

3.35 Newmarket: Not So Sleepy each-way at 12-1 with William Hill (paying five places)

It was hard not to be impressed with how he scored on his seasonal debut at Pontefract where he settled much better under Graham Lee - who is on board again here - and this race is likely to have been the plan for some time.

There is no doubting he is capable of winning a handicap of this calibre on the Flat and looks sure to go close if he settles better this year, despite carrying an extra 4lb.

For what it’s worth, Rock Eagle was the other horse on the shortlist. Watch him go and win now at 16-1!

I have already mentioned Lightly Squeeze who was set to run in the Cesarewitch, before being re-routed to the Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle.

He would have been my clear choice for that race, but on account of the drying ground, he he has now been re-routed from the re-route, with Harry Fry telling me he will now wait for the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las next weekend.

4.50 Newmarket: Epic Hero at 7-1 with William Hill

Epic Hero ran a race full of promise on his seasonal debut

The highly-regarded Highest Ground heads the betting for the Darley Stakes and has shown plenty of promise in three starts, including when runner-up in the Dante at York where a lack of experience probably cost him his unbeaten record.

It is a slight concern we haven’t seen the Frankel colt since then, and I am siding with one who I have been following for a while, Epic Hero.

The former French recruit enjoyed a successful stint in Dubai after joining the Crisford team and returned this season when an eye-catching second in a competitive Group Three at York.

It was disappointing he couldn’t build on that effort at Sandown next time out where he finished fifth after racing prominently, but that was a muddling race and I am willing to give him another chance to fulfil the promise he showed on the Knavesmire.

Simon and Ed Crisford have been operating at a 30 per cent strike-rate in the past fortnight, and James Doyle is a positive jockey booking.

How To Bet £20 on Saturday:

OPTION ONE:

2.55 Newmarket: £3 each-way on Wembley at 10-1 with Paddy Power

3.35 Newmarket: £5 each-way on Not So Sleepy at 12-1 with William Hill

4.50 Newmarket: £4 win on Epic Hero at 7-1 with Willam Hill

OPTION TWO:

£2 each-way trixie on:

2.55 Newmarket: Wembley

3.35 Newmarket: Not So Sleepy (plus a £2 each-way single)

4.50 Newmarket: Epic Hero

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